With Coho we make escapement in years that we are on the up side of the cycles and do not on the down side of the cycle. If one looked at the runs over time they are never static. Almost always a up cycle for a period of time, peak and then down. As I said upside of the cycle the run is under forecasted and down side over forecasted. The number of years in a complete cycle can and does vary but not the natural cycle.

Nothing new here been that way for a very long time. As to the patterns of how the fish enter the bay and rivers it is about rain inland, time of year for bay. Keep in mind the data showing when Coho enter the system is based upon harvest not much else. They will stage up someplace in the basin until flows are such they can spawn. With the current management of the state and QIN we are very dependent on the blow out rains in the first part of Nov when nobody fishes to make escapements.

This results in years like this, OK but not great. This is because 60% of the basin (lower tribs) did NOT make much more than 50% of escapement for this brood year. If the runs had not been over harvested our returns this year would have much larger. The only way this changes if the up cycle changes with a several year peak or flatter curve both upside and down OR the comanagers show some sanity and reduce the overall Chehalis Basin harvest rate. Rather simple really but few will see past "I want to kill a fish!"

So what we have had the last 10 years is likely what the foreseeable future looks like. Mediocre runs driven by continuous over harvest ! Like I said it is simple enough as this is not rocket science just simple cause and effect.