OK...I'm not armed with reams of data and links to hatchery counts but it seems pretty obvious to me the majority of the 2salt hatchery brats on the OP, in the Puget Sound and Columbia tributaries aren't coming.

I've heard rumblings that an abnormally low ratio of 2salt native fish are being caught on OP and Skagit tribs. Purely third hand information but I want to suppose that is true for the purposes of this thread. Campbell River tribs appear to be affected as well...

If this years 2salt run were heavily depressed across that wide of a region and across the hatchery/native lines even....wouldn't that be indicative of some sort of cataclysmic failure in Ocean conditions?

If not...what then?

Man, I was just thinking the same thing. Funny, given that there were plenty of salmon this fall. Though the searun cutts were not plentiful...

Its obviouse there is a problem and an element of the run is missing. You can see it everywhere out here. We seem to have the normal number of three salts but only a small fraction of the two salts so far.

Will we see the younger ones come in late? I doubt it their hatchery peers of the same age didnt show, if they were gonna they would have by now.

Seems that knowone is worried yet. even though the Bogey hatchery only got a third of its hatchery escapement and there is an obviouse problem in the wild run. Talk to any of the fishers out there, Guides, Visitors, Locals, and Tribal fishers. They will all tell you something is wrong, yet we bonk bonk away. Since those darn brats didnt show up and everybody wants to take one home well since its legal and all why not? It must be OK since the rules say you can.

Said it months ago - good ol' El Nino is back, and this is what we get. That wall of hot water that delayed the salmon run did in the steelhead run - no productivity over too long a streatch. Betcha there's going to be big-time coho problems next year - the summer of 2001 was bone dry so freshwater survival would have been down, and now they are out there in the hot water starving to death. Not good, glad I stocked the shelves with smoked salmon while I could

Spawnout,

I keep hearing that rumor that the salmon were late this year. Well I dont know about the rest of the state but the OP salmon were right on time.

Another thing our brats showed up right on time also, November is always the beginning for the Bogie/Clawah brats. The problem was they were done by Thanksgiving when it should have ended about now..

Im sure ElNino is playing a role in our steelhead runs this year, but it hasnt made them late.

Silver -

If there were some sort of cataclysmic crash in Ocean conditions affecting the 2salt's now I would suspect we would see that it had a similar effect on salmon, coho and Kings anyway, next year...and a corresponding decline in the 3salt native steelhead next year as well? Damn...I hope not.

Any speculation as to what might have led to this region wide failure were it to come to pass?

Who knows but maybe our fish managers should start trying to protect the wild runs now since indicators are showing we have a problem.

I am frequently outta state for years at a time (and outta the country for months at a time), because of this I like to monitor how well the various fish runs are doin. I have come to the general conclusion that when I am home, the runs are not very good, and when I'm halfway around the world they are phenomenally good.

No science or stats to back this up (plus I have a terrible memory):

It seems to me that the years we have good salmon returns, more often than not we have poor steelhead returns.

Am I way out in left field on this?

Sincerely,
Roger

My take on the lack of steelies. The great white scared them all away. <img border="0" alt="[eat]" title="" src="graemlins/eat.gif" />

Fly Chucker

Rich G you're always cryin' wolf on the wild run. It's too damn early to say anything about it. And don't give me that old song about the eary part of the wild run. I appreciate your concern, but the wild run has always peaked in March. All we can say is that two-salt hathcery fish are few everywhere -- nothing more.

I have a question that may or may not be dumb. Is there a chance that the 2salt my stay out another year becouse of el nino or lack of food(maybe they are not big enough to take the whole spawning ordeal) or what ever. Could we be seeing a great 3salt year next winter. also rrr when are you leaving so I can get some time off?

Tom,

My theory, on the abundance of fish depending on whether or not I can fish for em, took a big hit w/this year’s hatchery steelhead returns.

Since I am still in exile down here in San Diego there should have been good returns.

Now, if I was halfway around the world, there shoulda been excellent returns. The only hope for proving my theory correct is that this year's wild steelhead returns will be incredible.

Based on my expected return to the great northwest, there should be good fishin thru the fall of next year w/an outside chance that things may take a nosedive in March of this year.

Sincerely,
Roger

RRR

It sound to me like you have got a severe case of "Murphy's Law" and you can chose which one of those laws applies best!


Cowlitzfisherman

CFM

I'm constantly amazed how Murphy's law seems to apply to any situation, anywhere, anytime!

Roger

RRR

Don't feel to alone!

Cowlitzfisherman

In order to help the current low in north west fishing I ask all of you to join me in the "rrr travel donation fund" how much do you guys think NASA would charge????

So hows the foreign drift net fishery doing?? Does anyone monitor it up close?

Periwinkle --

That's a damn good question. Those B-st-rds have kinda dropped off of the radar lately. Any Coasties out there w/sum info?

Sincerely,
Roger

Are you guys theorizing that foreign drift nets are the cause of 2salt fish not showing up??

Seems highly unlikely to me that a handful of 'foreign' drift nets could wipe out an entire regions hatchery run and 2salt native run.

Was hoping for some speculation from some of the '-ist's' on this board....

Bump...

Just to give the -ist's one more chance to saisfy my desire for speculation and theory.