Looking at the counts at Bonniville.. It would seem that this huge run of springers may not be that huge after all. I think the "late" thing is past late... maybe they are not really out there ???? They had a couple big days and then boom, way down again. Any thoughts ???

So far my guess is the same, april 29th is when we are gonna see the big numbers

We went thru this same thing with early run Kenai "spring" kings in 2002.... ADFG just kept saying it's too early to tell, they're probably just a week late. Historic data said otherwise... all-time worst entry pattern of kings since record-keeping began. Ended up being so bad that total run size fell short of escapement goals.

My guess is the run is much smaller than predicted. Bonneville counts have really done a major backslide in the past few days.... the guys predicting imminent closure are probably right on.

I think there are fish yet to come but think about this also....If statistics are correct, there are 3,000 seals and sea lions in the Columbia and each one is estimated to devour 3 salmon each day..some of us have seen some sea lions doing much better than that. That would add up to 9,000 salmon per day. I guess those statistics are about as accurate as estimating the sports catch. Now we supposedly know what the non-tribal commercials caught ....so the only wild card is how many fish the tribes have harvested and continue to harvest. Now the Bonneville counts are a good barometer based on historical numbers but they do not necessarily tell us what has happened downstream of the dam.

Time will tell I suppose....Let's see what this weekend brings. Hopefully there are some watchful eyes keeping a lookout for the nets once the run does surge in the next few days or weeks. Yes I know..nothing we can do about it....but it would be nice to atleast be armed with accurate information for once.

I think the fish are just late. If you look at where the river tempature was early this year and compare it to past years, this year was very cold. I expect to see some more high number days at the dam. I saw a report that said fishing was good in the longveiw area saturday. We still have another month.

There still on there way, only 5k behind last year at this time.. Its just that the usual techniques aren't working as well this year because its a low water year.. aka sitting on the hook won't work as well because the fish are spread out.

Looking at the #'s, this year shows that the run is 30K behind LY at Bonneville. Take out 2002 and all is well, relatively speaking of course, compared to the past 5 years. Except this year was predicted to match 2002.

Unless things really heat up again in the next 10 days this year is going to come in WAY under forecast. Good thing the commercial season was done, along with it's wild steelhead impact, before anybody had a freaking clue to what was really happening.

Luv it,

William

I would bet a latte that the fishery will be suspended within 1 week:

1. The sport impact reserved for the Columbia River below Bonneville is 0.8%, out of a total sport impact of 1.2% for the entire Columbia River. 0.4% is reserved for sport fishing above Bonneville. See details here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/crc/crc21apr04fact.pdf

2. As of April 18, the total sport fishery impact based on the preseason run size forecast was 0.535%, or 2/3 of the available 0.8%.

3. There were a zillion boats hammering the lower river this past weekend.

I fished last Wednesday afternoon at Bonneville. I guess fish were caught in the morning, but it definitely died in the afternoon. Thursday morning before sun up we were out above Bonneville at Wind River. About fifty boats and only saw two fish caught, but alot of fish showing up on the sonar. Came in at noon and heard they did very well up at John Day. Drove up there and sure enough a lot of fish were caught.

This weekend I am headed back on the Columbia at the Wind River. Hope it has improved, this will be my last chance this year. Can anyone give me the address for the Bonneville Dam count? Thanks!

I spoke to Clancy Holt yesterday and he said they are coming in strong. He limited six guests and was back homehi
by 1:00

I went out yesterday (4-26) around the stella area on the Oregon side and saw quite a few fish on the finder caught one too. The fish seemed to have moved out deeper also. Wendsday we were in 18 feet and seeing them everywhere (3 in the boat). Thursday nothing no fish no bumps no marks on the finder. Monday we had to move out to 24 to 26 feet they looked like they were racing up river pretty fast. Mine still had lice like most the fish I caught this year. They still seem on the small side though.

Conventional wisdom says that if the run is later than expected, it's also going to be smaller than expected too. The pre-season run size prediction was 360K. It probably won't be quite that large but 300K is possible, perhaps likely. That's not outside the range of variability given the uncertainties associated with predicting run size strength a year before it shows up.

BTW - I took a walk at Frenchman's Bar last evening. There were three springers on the bank and another native that was released. There were about 6-7 anglers. It had been slow until around 7:00pm. All four fish were landed within a half an hour. That's springer fishing.....!

They are a little late but the summer run are early.So just keep fish if Dave talk to Clancy and he said that then there still come.We had coho coming up the cow in Feb this year.

Finegrain

I guess I should have explained a little better when I said we have another month. I meant that we have another month before the final count of spring chinook is in at the dam. I believe they cosider chinook going over the dam until May 31st to be spring chinook. I would not be surprised if the lower river is not extended past the end of the month. I am done myself fishing the lower river and looking forward to fishing one of the tributaries very soon.

I heard the CR is going to get shut down this Friday by a guy who fish's it reguarly...Anyone else hear this??

This is a website for fish and wildlife after the meeting tomorrow they will update it. http://www.wdfw.wa.gov/fish/crc/crcindex.htm

Mike@NB,

http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/adult.html

Just hit " begin run."