I made a similar comment to the above back in May. Several who thought they had a crystal ball told me why the market was about to go in the sheitter. Want to read a few quotes?

Here ya go.

"So I’ll play the Devil’s advocate, and you can play the Markets advocate.
Where are the indicators that we’ll have a summer rally, or that we’ll push through the ceiling of the current market cycles, instead of the floor?"

"I have some bad news, there isn’t any good news.

Employment, um..no.
Currencies, horrible.
The government has been propping up our economy by pumping money into the system with stimulus and other tricks that can’t be sustained.
Commodities look good because everything else is in the toilet.
Manufacturing…yeah, look at what that 80 billion dollar bailout got us.

The consensus out there is that things are bad and only getting worse."

"Quite a successful day of manipulation for the Wall Street criminals...Textbook containment of a final hour sell-off prevented a big drop & close below 9,800, and a new low being set at the close.

How long before those moving the strings cede 9,800? Will they wait another 2 months worth of 401K contributions before they allow it to move lower?

Folks, I think this market is a fraud that will never, and I repeat NEVER, sees its equal...

Make sure you are positioned correctly. As I have said before I'm typically an optimist, but I fear things will likely get ugly this summer."



At the time I was accused of being a cheerleader for the administration, of having rose colored glasses, etc. Crow anyone?

Before you get all worked up again, I repeat; I nor anyone else knows where the market will go short term, but historically, long term, it has been a consistently good investment. Tomorrow? I don't know, and neither do you.

But back when so many were sagely telling us the market was headed for the craper it was much lower than today.


Any more crystal ballers want to chime in ?




I

I was correct and the market has been making me money. Got to have losers in order to have winners. Good thing there are so many losers.

I have had a very good run with Ford, Apple, and Amazon. Also had a couple of losers, but the gainers are far outweighing the losers.

Now the toughest question of all - when to sell. I sold half my Ford at a price quadruple what I paid for it, but its now worth twice that amount.

Whne I have a big gain, I liek to sell half, but that has cost me a ton of paper money with Apple and Ford.

Was reading the other night on how through government policies ( some intended / some not ) that the country had switched from a manufacturing economy to a service one much faster than thought. Worked with the changes in money as to banks, Fanny & Freddy driving the housing boom until now.

As the economy is service based ( financial biggest ), large corporations shed jobs and duplication like rain, and housing drove the new economy, this thing we have now is a very different animal than in the past. Wall Street will recover much before everything else also and that seems the case. I go with DV as the 60k this crash cost my IRA sorta sucked. One forecast I read projected a recovery but minus the job creation. Hell they are saying 5 to 7 years to get down to 7% unemployment.

Both D & R's bought in to this global economy thing and from my seat it looks like it was a big mistake to let go of manufacturing for cheap products. My IRA is feeling better now with the Wall Street come back but my nephew thinks it sucks as he is still out of work. Kinda glass half full / half empty, depends on which side the fence you look from.

A recovery without jobs is like a Thanksgiving without turkey.

You can't have one without the other.

I read an article saying that the stocks have been going up in part because wall street is betting against city/county/states defaulting on their loans. Didnt we just go through this with home loans?

In shoring has started. Overseas Corps are looking at our cheap labor now which was the goal of offshoring to drive down wages. And US Corps have more cash reserves right now than at any time in history.

IMO, the market will continue to do well through May unless we have some big event. The Reps want things to go back to the days of no oversight which got us into this mess so there will be big pressure and all sorts of attempts to slip that stuff back in which makes Wall Street happy.

Yeah Dave, that's the safe way to take your profits. Now you are playing Ford for free and then some. I don't remember who it was, Getty or one of those guys, but when asked how he made his money he said "I always sold too soon" which I seem to do. But I don't lose often that way either. Although I kick myself for selling my Netflix. I'd have almost $500K on that one alone if I had held for one more year.

In past years, it seems there's been a pattern where stocks go up at Christmas but then slide right back down a couple days before the new year. But I'm no expert so I may be wrong!

Have to take profits or losses before year end to be on this years taxes. A bull market doesn't mean a single day.

There are always lots of guys who can tell you why the market did this or that. As far as accuratley telling us what the market will do - not so many


In past years, it seems there's been a pattern where stocks go up at Christmas but then slide right back down a couple days before the new year. But I'm no expert so I may be wrong!

The market has been on a relativly steady upward slant since May.

You may have been referring to the January Effect

"January Effect

January Effect DefinitionTendency of the stock market to rise between December 31 and the end of the first week in January. The January Effect occurs because many investors choose to sell some of their stock right before the end of the year in order to claim a capital loss for tax purposes. Once the tax calendar rolls over to a new year on January 1st these same investors quickly reinvest their money in the market, causing stock prices to rise. Although the January Effect has been observed numerous times throughout history, it is difficult for investors to profit from it since the market as a whole expects it to happen and therefore adjusts its prices accordingly."


Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html#ixzz18n2fcdA8

Nope!

Wishful thinking Hankster. Did ya notice the recovery began to strengthen about then?

Kudlow - One mans opinion.

Yeh the prospect of less regulation is such a fine thing. Really worked well with the banks didn't it?

Kudlow is one of the many who can tell you, after the fact, why it happend. Trouble is, there are a buncha other guys who
"knew" what casued the change , but they had a diffrent answer.

I wonder how the market did so well under Clinton? I bet the market gurus knew he would only be there eight years then we could get back on track with the republicans. How did that work out?

When did the market crash again? Who was in power?

Keith

You do remember Dot Com don't you Dave? Should not pick and choose between the dumpster diving parties!

Burp!....Reality finally sets in....QE2 is over, QE3 won't help...no "Bazooka's" left for anyone to pull out, in Paulson parlance.

Dow "adjusts" because the manipulators all went on vacation...and all of 2011's gains are eliminated in a single day of reckoning..

Time to buy more.

Only if you think today was rock bottom.

Me thinks the market is going to keep dropping for a while.

This "correction" was due a long time ago and I'm not convinced the market is done correcting itself.

I indirectly (text to Rico to Dave) and asked Vedder if he had invested in the market today....and that was when it was only down 350.

Like all the way to 6000 this time?

Dead cat bounce tomorrow. Slight gap down then up marignally to marginally big. 20y Treasuries stuffed. Stop losses for traders all flipped today. Retirement plan devotees will wait for one more leg... Next week is anyones guess. tomorrow buying SPY 118 calls at 4.71 with a tight stop. Then when the last of the mohicans gives in, its time for shotgun shells and canned goods. Buhbye 10k. Hello 7k?

laffin, but seriously the Dow Theory and a Double Top are to blame. Be nimble

;-)

I am not a buyer at this point. But the only thing I am sure of is no one knows where the market will be at the end of next week, let alone next year. I do think things will be slow to improve until we have a serious debt reduction plan in place. Right now there are many problems all over the world. And the world can see we have an impotent president and a hopelessly incompetent and partisan congress. As I have said many times the market runs on fear and greed. Right now fear is ion the driver’s seat.

It might be good to note that even after this awful week the market is well above where it was this time last year. If this turns out to be a correction alls well. If its more than that - who knows.