There's still perhaps a little to sort out on a few house races, but I wanted to get the first update in... From the earlier thread, I'd offered a 750 of Makers Mark to whomever could predict the election results with the lowest percentage error, on four categories:

1. Obama Electoral Votes
2. GOP seats in the house of representatives
3. Democrat seats in the Senate
4. Romney electoral votes...

The results, sorted from lowest to greatest error (actuals still not quite final, but pretty darn close)...



Uh, oh. Looks like I win my own prize! How can this be? But let's take a bit deeper look at the predictions, and Error/Bias that is computed...

First, the predictions -- see the colors? Red predictions that ended up being overly optimistic towards the GOP. Blue predictions ended up being overly optimistic towards the Democrats. White predictions were CORRECT... Can you believe how Republican leaning our predictions were? Even the poster child "libtards" had lots of them...

So what is the "Bias" column? So in this case, I assigned positive values for "error" if the estimate was biased towards the RIGHT (positive on a number line) politically. I assigned negative values for error for things that were biased towards the LEFT politically. So a person could in theory have a 20% error, but a 0% bias if their errors were split evenly -- some too GOP friendly, some too DEM friendly... For most folks their wrong estimates were all GOP-friendly, so you see the same value as their absolute error... Let's look at a graph of these numbers...



Everyone ends up leaning towards the GOP, some quite significantly more than the others. Fascinating stuff.

Enjoy the Makers!

I sucked. Looks like you can get drunk with second place finisher Edgar. I'm guessing he'll show up drunk so it won't take much of your bottle to finish him off. Congratulations on your win, maybe we'll play again in four years.

Hmmmm, interesting idea Donno --- me, Edgar, Dec 6th, whiskey, bud. No sweatlodge though.

Well I am over the election depressiion. Hoped for Romney and maybe a change. However, No hope, No change. Just 4 more years of ineptitude, incompetence, assinine apologies and perhaps downright malfeasance.
Voted for McKenna too and again Chrissie's counters rule.
Oh well, when enough of 'we the people' get fed up and feel their
votes are meaningless, comes the revolution. I won't be here to see or
participate. Unfortunately my children and theirs will.
Sad. We, the USA, have always had our problems and yet folks will
risk life and limb to get here.
It is not getting better.
BTW don't tell me about the thinking elite electing the O guy. Hispanics with wet family and those with their hands out asking for alms elected him. The fact that many of those with their hands out have an edge on melanin is noted.

The fact that you're a f.ucking racist is also noted.

What a sad pile of steaming sh1t you are.

A racist says "what" ?

You and Dan S can both stick it up you fat arses. You have no clue
about my being a racist or not. I do presume to be a realist. TS

lol

Hit a racist nerve there, did I?

If you knew what the term meant it would be a bit different. Since you
don't, prattle on.

Well, I've never claimed to have an IQ of 148.................like you did.

Why would you, it's obvious you don't.

Kinda' obvious in your case too, Illy. Noticed by everyone but you?

It's obvious you don't, either, you f'n jackass.

You're the only one stupid enough to believe you do.

That's what makes it so funny.

I guess I'm not the only one that noticed.

Maybe he measures it in metric...

Glad I can entertain the dregs. You too Salmo silly. So sad for you Dan S. Too be so vocabularly afflicted must be irritating.
next

How is it that a guy with an IQ of 148, but writes like a pot smoking monkey?

Illy is a f.uckin' idiot.

He thinks "it's" is the possessive form, and apparently doesn't know the difference between "too" and "to", either.

But his IQ is 148 according to him.



Sure it is........................you f'n goat.