There's still perhaps a little to sort out on a few house races, but I wanted to get the first update in... From the earlier thread, I'd offered a 750 of Makers Mark to whomever could predict the election results with the lowest percentage error, on four categories:

1. Obama Electoral Votes
2. GOP seats in the house of representatives
3. Democrat seats in the Senate
4. Romney electoral votes...

The results, sorted from lowest to greatest error (actuals still not quite final, but pretty darn close)...



Uh, oh. Looks like I win my own prize! How can this be? But let's take a bit deeper look at the predictions, and Error/Bias that is computed...

First, the predictions -- see the colors? Red predictions that ended up being overly optimistic towards the GOP. Blue predictions ended up being overly optimistic towards the Democrats. White predictions were CORRECT... Can you believe how Republican leaning our predictions were? Even the poster child "libtards" had lots of them...

So what is the "Bias" column? So in this case, I assigned positive values for "error" if the estimate was biased towards the RIGHT (positive on a number line) politically. I assigned negative values for error for things that were biased towards the LEFT politically. So a person could in theory have a 20% error, but a 0% bias if their errors were split evenly -- some too GOP friendly, some too DEM friendly... For most folks their wrong estimates were all GOP-friendly, so you see the same value as their absolute error... Let's look at a graph of these numbers...



Everyone ends up leaning towards the GOP, some quite significantly more than the others. Fascinating stuff.

Enjoy the Makers!

I sucked. Looks like you can get drunk with second place finisher Edgar. I'm guessing he'll show up drunk so it won't take much of your bottle to finish him off. Congratulations on your win, maybe we'll play again in four years.

Hmmmm, interesting idea Donno --- me, Edgar, Dec 6th, whiskey, bud. No sweatlodge though.

Well I am over the election depressiion. Hoped for Romney and maybe a change. However, No hope, No change. Just 4 more years of ineptitude, incompetence, assinine apologies and perhaps downright malfeasance.
Voted for McKenna too and again Chrissie's counters rule.
Oh well, when enough of 'we the people' get fed up and feel their
votes are meaningless, comes the revolution. I won't be here to see or
participate. Unfortunately my children and theirs will.
Sad. We, the USA, have always had our problems and yet folks will
risk life and limb to get here.
It is not getting better.
BTW don't tell me about the thinking elite electing the O guy. Hispanics with wet family and those with their hands out asking for alms elected him. The fact that many of those with their hands out have an edge on melanin is noted.

The fact that you're a f.ucking racist is also noted.

What a sad pile of steaming sh1t you are.

A racist says "what" ?

You and Dan S can both stick it up you fat arses. You have no clue
about my being a racist or not. I do presume to be a realist. TS

lol

Hit a racist nerve there, did I?

If you knew what the term meant it would be a bit different. Since you
don't, prattle on.

Well, I've never claimed to have an IQ of 148.................like you did.

Why would you, it's obvious you don't.

Kinda' obvious in your case too, Illy. Noticed by everyone but you?

It's obvious you don't, either, you f'n jackass.

You're the only one stupid enough to believe you do.

That's what makes it so funny.

I guess I'm not the only one that noticed.

Maybe he measures it in metric...

Glad I can entertain the dregs. You too Salmo silly. So sad for you Dan S. Too be so vocabularly afflicted must be irritating.
next

How is it that a guy with an IQ of 148, but writes like a pot smoking monkey?

Illy is a f.uckin' idiot.

He thinks "it's" is the possessive form, and apparently doesn't know the difference between "too" and "to", either.

But his IQ is 148 according to him.



Sure it is........................you f'n goat.

Impressive work IrishRogue.

Too bad your are such a 'effing dunce Dan s. How long did you spend
discovering the difference between too> also and the infinitive to?
Same for the contraction it's > it is and the possessive its'?
Dumbchit.

How long?

I don't remember - I learned how to properly use English years ago, and don't really give it a thought any more.

You, on the other hand, never learned how to properly communicate in English. It's probably because the education you received in 1912 was substandard. (did you notice how I used "it's" right there -not attempting to show possession, but the contracted form of "it is")

The only question is why you think you're so f'n smart when you prove daily that you're an ignoramus.

Dementia is my guess.

Thank you, Hank.

Illy - pay attention - you could learn something here.

I've been guilty of misusing your and you're, but I'm not claiming to have an IQ of 148.

they're their now, boys.




Dan, what the Hell happened to you? Seriously. You seem to have popped a vein or something.

Maybe you just like being owned?

If you're so easily upset by an old-timer, maybe you should take another toke.....or two......or ten.

How about a laxative?

Relax......(just because I don't give a crap about you)

Hank, it would be great if you could do a one on 'prolly' too.

Dan is and has been tokeless since the new job.

I don't think you have any f'n clue about who is getting owned, Einstein.

You don't often "own" someone by proving you're an idiot by not knowing the difference between "its" the possessive, and "it's" the contraction of "it is".

I'm tired of the old goat telling everyone how smart he is when he clearly isn't. He might impress you, though.

Listen, if I need any help from you dealing with a senile old goat, I'll let you know. Otherwise, MYOFB.

You're wrong, Dan.
Being "owned" is being controlled by someone else.
And that's you........Einstein.

And Illy is "controlling" me, huh?



Yeah, OK.

Actually you look pretty good with all those strings, puppet boy. You look like a big ol' bird's nest.

But if you can't put your thumb down on the spool, that's what you get.

carry on, son.

For the record its' is an older form of the possessive pronoun. Many things change. Language has currency as Hiyakawa says in his essay.
We no longer use a comma in the string of connected items preceding the conjunction 'and,' but it was taught in elementary english in the 40's and 50's.
You're still a effing dunce Dan S.

For the record, your IQ is nowhere near 148.

So that makes you a liar as well as a racist.

I may be a lot of things, but being a liar is not one of those things.
I am sorry you seem distressed by my possible IQ numbers. You
should get over it. Save some wear and tear on your nervous system.
That goes for some of the other weenies out there too.

Distressed?

No.

Amused.

148 isn't your possible IQ. Impossible would be the accurate term.

It's OK to be in denial. It won't damage you. Just finished watching
Zulu. Enjoy that movie. Maybe it is because the Officers and men of the 24th Foot were supposed to die and they didn't succumb to the
Zulu.
Be strong Dan S. Don't forget to wax the strings now and then.

Yeah.

I'm the one in denial.

I bet your wife never lets you get the last word.

It's obvious IR doesn't drink much so he had an unfair advantage.

Being consistently wrong has the same net effect as being a compulsive liar.
Parents sometimes spell around children. I'm thinking they spelled "QI" instead of "IQ". The literal translation of "qi" in Chinese is breath, air, or gas. So, I'm thinking you were just a stinky special needs kid who scored high on the gas meter.

Very nice visual representation of the story, IR!

So the world is kind, even peckerhead has a following.
btw I am special, to me.
Suffer on.

LOL......"Peckerhead" is what my Dad used to call me. But then my Dad had a lot a unique sayings. I brought one of my many girlfriends home one time and as we walked up the hill to the house, Dad, who was out in the garden, and was also very tired of my bringing home my latest gal, called out, "Dennis, she ain't got enough ass to keep your balls up off the cold sheet."

So much for introductions.......

And, of course, the two Independents are caucusing with the D's, actually making it 55-45.

Fish on...

Todd

It will be in two years if they continue being worthless.

Fish on...

Todd

P.S. They will continue being worthless.