cohoangler -
Don't thing this decision will result in an significant increase in PS Chinook returns. The limited data I could find (Stillaguamish and Snohomish) only about 5% of the total harvest occurs in Alaska. BC takes a much larger share so reductions there would be more impactful. The Columbia upriver brights would be the big winner. I don't thing it would make a detectable difference for the springers. Shocking few are caught in any marine fisheries.

In many of the Puget Sound streams increasing the number hatchery fish would unlikely to significantly increase the wild production. Many of the the basin are on the average producing less than 1 recruit/spawner and that ration declines as the total number of spawners increase. For example, the most recent data on the Stillaguamish was the average R/S for escapements below 1,000 was 0.77 and for those over 1,500 it fell to 0.50 - a push.

I continue to argue that the biggest action the managers could do with PS Chinook for the orcas would be selective breeding of hatchery stocks for older/larger returning adults. Currently the average PS hatchery Chinook caught in PS summer recreational fishery is 28.5 inches (less than 10#) and 3.6 years old. At some of the hatcheries the adults collected at the rack is even younger (lots of 2-year jacks which are too small (less than 22 inches) to be legal in a marine fishery. I'm guessing increasing the average age of those returning hatchery fish to say age 4 would increase the overall biomass of chinook by a 1/3 without increasing the numbers. It would take significantly fewer to satisfy the orcas diet needs.

Curt