It doesn't matter what the sporties, commercials, or sea lions think about what is up with the run. If WDFW/ODFW think the run is going to be less than forecast, they will shut it down. The commercials are currently near their bycatch allocation based on a 360,000-fish run estimate. Bycatch allocations in terms of # of fish that are allowed to die are based on run size, as best determined by forecast, then by fish going over Bonneville. The fact is that the number of fish that have gone over Bonneville so far this year corresponds closely with the 36,000-fish run of 1999, not the 360,000-fish pre-run forecast. We can whine about water temp all we want, but the available data indicate a run size much smaller than 360,000.

There is also the FACT that a delay in the run means that the marine mammals have longer to decimate the run. 3000 mammals x 3 fish/day x 30 days is 270,000 fish!!!

Given the (understandably) cautious attitude of the fish managers, it makes sense to scale back the run size estimate. Since the commercials have caused bycatch well in excess of 2% of, say, 100,000, the logical thing to do at this point is to halt all fishing targeting these fish. To allow the fishery to continue would be irresponsible, until such time as the run size can more accurately be measured based on additional passage over Bonneville.

Don't get me wrong -- I hate that this is happening, because I was really looking forward to spending 2-3 days on the river with my kids catching big springers. However, I think logic dictates at least a temporary suspension of the fishery until such time as the data show a run size that can support additional bycatch.

Conspiracy theorists will dream up all sorts of nefarious schemes hatched by the commercial special interest groups, I guess. Maybe the huge pre-run forecasts are just a way to allow the commercials to hijack the sport bycatch.