Flow forecasts are very useful in determining when we should or shouldn't go fishing based on probable trends, but I find that they tend to be much less than reliable at predicting the rate and extent of rise/drop. It would be interesting to see what data the USGS uses to model their forecasts. I suspect there may be data they don't track that affect these things, so they have something less than the full range of considerations at their disposal. I think ground saturation level at the time of a rain event may be one such attribute. Something else that may affect their forecasts (assuming they do have most of those factors figured in, which is probably the case) would be the duration over which the forecast and observed precipitation fall in a given event. If it all falls quickly, it stands to reason it should drain quickly, producing a steep, relatively complete drop, whereas large amounts falling over longer periods of time should create the slow, steady drops we're accustomed to seeing once the rain arrives in earnest (which I think it's safe to say has happened at this point).

Something else that might affect how quickly flows drop and might complicate forecasting would be changes to the terrain at various points throughout the basin (due to recent logging or a large area within the flood plain being cleared and developed, for instance).

In the end, lest we forget, these are based on weather forecasts, and we all know how reliable those are....

Watching NOAA put up information out in the links above the drop puzzled me so I went and dug up a couple of old friends who know way more than I do about such things. Bottom line is despite all the rain the Chehalis Basin is still recovering from the drought. While for us the ground is soaked it is at the surface area. Deeper into the ground the ground is still drinking water as the drought dried things out much more & deeper than normal. Also the shallow aquafers are still filling which is normal as some ( well many ) such as the one that feeds Dry Bed Creek do not flow at a continuous volume until the aquafer is full.

So the rapid stream flow drop as rain stops is normal. The huge drops forecasted should and will disappear once the ground water & ground itself get fully charged. Evidently the drought effected things much more than many thought. Think of it this way. The low summer flows really impact fish particularly Coho. If the ground got as low as it appears then most of the small creeks and over summering areas took a hit for Coho production. Time will tell but I doubt words like small, minimal, minor will be used to describe it.

Makes sense, although it is pretty mind-boggling to think about how low the aquifers must have been in order to hold all or even most of the recent rainfall. It was pretty silly of me to think the USGS wouldn't be tracking all the known factors in hydrology....

It has been a very interesting week hydro-logically, I expected way more sheet water from these storms than there actually ended up being. It feels like it will be an accelerated dry-out as well.

This is where the wisdom of having forested slopes, free-to-move floodplains, beavers, and swamps is shown.

Modern flood management is to move the water through as fast as possible. So in doesn't recharge the groundwater.

And next up we have this for those down South in Willapa.

From: Public Affairs (DFW)
Sent: Thursday, November 19, 2015 3:48 PM
To: DFW DL WDFW Staff
Subject: WDFW hosts public meeting on Naselle hatchery operations

NEWS RELEASE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
November 19, 2015
Contact: Steve Thiesfeld, (360) 249-1201

WDFW hosts public meeting on Naselle hatchery operations

OLYMPIA – The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) is hosting a public meeting Nov. 23 to discuss this year’s salmon returns and hatchery operations in the Willapa Bay area.

The meeting will be held from 6 to 8 p.m., Nov. 23, in the library of the Naselle High School, 793 State Route 4, Naselle.

State fishery managers will provide an overview of this year’s salmon returns in the region. They will also discuss how operations at the state’s Naselle fish hatchery could be affected by a new Willapa Bay salmon management policy adopted this summer by the Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission. The policy is designed to restore depleted runs of wild chinook salmon in Willapa Bay and its tributaries, including the Naselle River where the hatchery is located.

Persons with disabilities who need to receive this information in an alternative format or who need reasonable accommodations to participate in WDFW-sponsored public meetings or other activities may contact Dolores Noyes by phone (360-902-2349), TTY (360-902-2207), or email (dolores.noyes@dfw.wa.gov). For more information, see http://wdfw.wa.gov/accessibility/reasonable_request.html.

This letter has been discussed but I do not recall seeing it posted so I thought I would do it. It is from the Governor to the Commission Chair and I assume the rest of the Commissioners. Formatting is off but it happens when converting a PDF to word.


October 28, 2015



Brad Smith, Ph.D., Chair
Washington State Fish &Wild life Commission 600 Capitol Way North
Olympia, WA 98501 Dear Chair Smith:

I am writing to convey a few of my thoughts related to fisheries management. First, I want to acknowledge the important role the Fish and Wildlife Commission plays in setting policies to assure the protection of the state's fish and wildlife resources. I also want to express my appreciation for your service as Governor appointees and public representatives.

One of the more challenging aspects of being a member of the Commission is dealing with fishery science, sound hatchery management and resource allocation issues. Managing salmon and steelhead is made more complex with the Endangered Species Act listing many stocks as threatened or endangered. This challenge is made even more complex with the impacts of climate change the
decline of Puget Sound, ocean acidification and third party litigation that threatens our state's hatchery production.

With over 800,000 recreational fish licenses issued annually and more than I O million annual angler days, recreational fishing makes a significant contribution to our economy, attracting tourists and providing an opportunity for our children to experience time on the water that sustains our way of life in Washington State. Recreation license fees increasingly represent the largest single portion of revenue for the Department to manage sustainable fisheries and other activities. The Department of Fish and Wildlife's share of the state general fund has declined dramatically over the past seven years, decreasing from $106 million i n the 2007-09 biennium to $74 million in the current biennium. Over this same period, the share of WDFW's costs supported by recreational fishing license revenue has grown substantially.

In light of the growing social and economic contribution of the recreational fishery across Washington State, the Commission should fully implement the budget policy you recently adopted and seek ways to expand public access to the recreational fishery, promote selective fisheries, implement scientifically credible hatchery practices that ensure hatchery production and consider economic factors when setting seasons for both the recreational and commercial fish industry. I remain convinced that we can prioritize and expand fishing opportunities for the 800,000 Washingtonians who purchase fishing licenses annually while taking into consideration the viability of our state's important commercial fish industry.




@ ,e P.O. Box 40002 • Olympia, Washington 98504-0002 • (360) 902-4111 • www.governor.wa.gov

Brad Smith October 28, 2015
Page 2

As always, it is important that we make wise fishery management decisions based upon sound science with the goal of building a sustainable fishery for tribes, the recreational community and our commercial fishery. I am pleased and encouraged that the final capital budget included over $39 million to rebuild, renovate and construct state hatchery facilities to benefit recreational, commercial and tribal fishers. In addition, over $118 million was provided for habitat projects that will directly benefit salmon habitat. I would hope the Commission and the Department can work effectively with the legislature, tribes and stakeholders to continue enhancing our state's fisheries. I stand ready to work with you on protecting one of our state's most important resources, and I look forward to hearing of your progress in our annual meeting.

Uh-oh....

Doing some catch up here but I wanted to wish all a Happy Thanksgiving! Family, food, and the season makes it a special time of the year. Enjoy!

Recently I was asked a couple of questions, so first up why is the Chehalis Tribe fishing with the closure? Well the answer is the Chehalis are a non treaty tribe that has court mandated fishing rights. Their harvest comes from the non treaty share ( us ) not the tribal which is QIN. Once the Rec and Non Treaty Gillnetters ( us again ) went in the Chehalis Tribe will fish. Simply put if the agency screws up as they did this year they do not have to accept boo boo no fish left as the Rec fisher did.

The next question is a bit more difficult. The point this gentleman had was that he could see little difference in previous years compared to this year from a inland fishers point of view. So off I went with the spiel on the new GH Policy on how things were supposed to be different. To be honest he did not budge on his thoughts and kept coming back to the same place which was " call it what you will the end result was the same " He has a point and a rather good one to be honest. In the past WDF&W placed the vast majority of conservation on the inland Rec seasons and bag limits to enable the Non Treaty gillnetters greater harvest. With the new GH Policy this was not supposed to be how things worked. I pointed out the various things in the GH Policy that benefitted the inland fisher but kept getting nailed by this simple fact. Regardless of the intent of the policy the end result was that WDF&W placed the conservation needs on inland Rec which is exactly what they have done for nearly 30 years.

I pointed out again that the agency had taken action to address the failed preseason harvest by closing for conservation which had a lot of support and was given a atta boy with applause for it. His response was one I have to remember. " That is like giving bank robbers an award for making their get away without shooting anyone". The man has a point. If the end result is how you view something and not the process utilized to get there then WDF&W's failure in the Chehalis was the same as in the past, they just did it differently. Heck of a gotcha moment.

One thing I have noticed over the years is the lack of understanding of how WDF&W functions as a government entity which is much different than the private sector. You see agencies are about process while the private sector is end results. The agency can work their way through a issue be it harvest or whatever and feel they were successful even if they fail to meet the objectives if the process went as planned. The process being that important is really due to the interaction and criticism from us the public. Now the private sector does not have us on them twenty four hours a day seven days a week. Also you fail to meet objectives and profits disappear your toast in the private sector as it is about the end results, period. ( right after complying with laws ) The objective being to make a profit means failure is NOT a option. For WDF&W failure to make an objective is acceptable as they utilize our taxes & fees so there is always another day.

It is what it is.

Any word on the street about potential steelhead opening dates and on what rivers?

I would think the co-managers are talking about this now??

Not that I am aware of but it should come about soon. In Dec we have the late Coho for Rec & the QIN Steelhead fisheries. Now the Rec is a straight up fishery but the QIN Steelhead fishery is not a Steelhead fishery but rather a Late Coho fishery also. So if Dec is the question then your guess is as good as mine. If you are looking at Jan on I have no idea as the winter Steelhead seasons as the process in setting them, equitable sharing of impacts are seldom discussed by the co-managers in public.

It is safe to say the Advocacy guys in East County did not buy into the PR love fest put forth by WDF&W & the QIN. So they took the issue public. From the Daily World.


PAID ADVERTISEMENT
Public Notice- Fishing Alert

The Twin Harbors Fish & Wildlife Advocacy is a nonprofit organization dedicated to managing natural resources for the betterment of today’s citizens and the generations that follow. The Advocacy is committed to encouraging practices that avoid ESA intervention as experienced with the “spotted owl” that can cripple local economies and impose hardships on all the citizens.

The salmon harvest seasons in Grays Harbor and its tributaries are “co- managed” by the WA Department of Fish & Wildlife (DFW) and the Quinault Indian Nation (QIN). Both recently curtailed recreational and/or net fishing due to the run size of Coho falling well below the number of fish needed in the spawning grounds to maintain a viable Coho run in the future.

Yet, DFW has a steelhead season set in December for recreational fishers and the QIN for its net fishers that will threaten the late run of natural spawning Coho which contain fish that are believed to
be our strongest connection remaining to the “wild” Coho from times gone past.

The Advocacy has written a joint letter to both the QIN and DFW asking they restrain from inflicting harvest mortality on the late run Coho during their normally scheduled steelhead seasons
in December when up to 90% or more of the fish caught will be late run Coho rather than steelhead. The QIN nets have already landed 31,276 salmon in GH this year which is well in excess of the 50/50 sharing established by the Boldt Decision. Delaying putting its nets back in until after Christmas will not resultin a loss of treaty salmon fishing rights. DFW can also move pole fishing to avoid inflicting mortality as well.

The joint-letter to the DFW and the QIN points out how both promote conservation in their press releases. That’s the “talk” and the Advocacy now asks if either “...can do the walk”. The letter with details is available for viewing at the Advocacy’s website (thfwa.
org) including a picture that shows the distinctly different “late hooknose” next to a hatchery fish commonly seen today.

Paid for by Twin Harbors Fish & Wildlife Advocacy, PO Box 179, McCleary, WA 98557.

Nets are back in the middle Halis.

Lower river is scheduled to see nets go in the water starting Noon Sunday Till Dec. 2. Conservation...LMAO!

Region 6 provided the preseason Steelhead forecast that I requested. So take a look but with this caution the QIN & WDF&W HAVE NOT both agreed to these numbers so they could move around some.

Chehalis 2015 Steelhead
Hatchery 11900 Escapement Goal 410 Harvestable 11490
Wild 12900 8600 4300
Total 24800 9010 15790

Humptulips
Hatchery 2100 140 1960
Wild 2800 1600 1200
Total 4900 1740 3160

4300 "harvestable" wild steelhead on the Chehalis side? Guess that's my answer to why they net 5 days a week all season. I'm no proponent of killing wild steelhead, but shouldn't the state side be entitled to 2,150? As I said, I won't be whacking any, but wouldn't a lower harvest quota for the QIN translate to fewer days of gillnetting, resulting in more productive fishing upstream?

We kill our 2150 as CnR mortality, since we will catch 42,300 wild steelhead in the Chehalis basin.

Fish on...

Todd

P.S. Just kidding.

I should have posted this up with the numbers but the thing to remember is the Summerrun Steelhead are in the mix so it really is H+W+S then divide by two ... sorta. As the QIN do not C&R they are controlled by the NOR ( wild ) while we sort through and take hatchery which means our numbers climb in the hatchery side but are very low on the NOR. The QIN & Chehalis tribe harvest Steelhead the break out HOR / NOR for counting harvest is something the state did that the tribes never agreed to.

That's right. I forgot that "fish" means wampum that swims in the native tongue, while "wild fish" has no meaning. Curiously, our government seems to have adopted the same translations.

Are the new zipper front waders better for wading through BS?