The modeled Chinook impacts for NT Commercials are 49 H and 100 W. Rec bay are combined C&R mortalities are H&W 234, freshwater river 333 and Chehalis Tribal ( which are part of the states share ) is 257 W. The QIN are modeled at 3566 combined H&W.

Now that everyone's blood pressure is up this, the QIN have federal approval to count all adults spawning in the gravel be it H or W as part natural spawn. The state does not count the spawning fish in that manner so WDFW's model shows expected natural (W) Chinook at 8967 but QIN expected numbers are 10,418 and W escapement goal is 9753. In other words the comanagers do not count fish spawning the same way. To complicate a bit more the Feds count the combined Humptulips and Chehalis as Grays Harbor not separating the two sides of Grays Harbor only Grays Harbor total. Looking at those numbers for combined Grays Harbor Humptulips and Chehalis Chinook harvest the QIN are modeled for combined H&W at 5673 and NT at 4019.

So this, for 2022 Chehalis Chinook Alaska Chinook fisheries will take 11,617, Canadian Chinook fisheries 4,633, Washington coastal 292 which leaves the Chehalis harvestable Chinook at 4626 H&W combined. If we had a Rec Chinook fishery I doubt it could be modeled. You could go boat to boat and never get your feet wet crossing the bay and traffic lights would be needed on the rivers! In other words we would blow the spawning numbers to hell and back in short order. One could argue that the QIN should reduce impacts but with the prior intercept numbers posted above I doubt that the Nation fishers would feel all that charitable.

So the answer to the problem is there is no answer unless the managers come to grips with marine intercept fisheries, which is more likely NOT to happen unless a federal judge forces the issue around ESA stocks.

The way our salmon harvest is managed toward crisis is that simple, that ugly, that just plain stupid. It leaves the Grays Harbor Rec fishers pissing and moaning about a couple hundred fish and reduced to C&R fisheries. Now that is the way things are like it or not.

For something different it appears that charters and others in the marine waters have seen substantial numbers of Coho running above average size and numbers expected which bodes well for our fall Coho fisheries.

The combined escapement for the Hump and Chehalis is also the official unit and goal in the PST. So any additional fishery restrictions that are outlined in the PST provisions would only kick in when the combo escapement goal is not achieved under the rules in the treaty.


.....as side note. The rules that describe when additional restrictions are required in PST fisheries are so complicated that never have those conditions be met for PST stocks.

Yup and the GH Chinook escapement goal for wild is 13,328. QIN methodology has projected escapement at 16,848 and WDFW at 12,555. Only WDFW separates the Humptulips from the Chehalis and bay tributaries. That came about when TF was the regional harvest manager in an effort to create a Rec bay fishery which was a different approach to say the least. The GH Policy codified this in the management of harvest and to be honest in the early 90's when the locals went at it about this the then Deputy Director looked us right in the eyes and said " we are going to loose Puget Sound and we need a place for those people to go". He also said the bay fishery would not impact fresh water fisheries but only access harvestable Chinook that the fresh water fisheries failed to harvest. Not sure that last part came to be.

I'm certainly not pissing and moaning about a couple hundred fish. I'm saying that the state welfare program for non tribal gillnetting should make them release hatchery kings if there's no chinook retention. No chinook retention should mean no chinook retention.

You've identified the "problem" of selective fisheries. Most of the commercial fisheries, whether net or troll, are not very successful at releasing non-target fish in good shape so they will survive. Not saying it can't be done, but it isn't.

Recreational, on the other hand, can successfully release fish is decent shape. We have not done the studies to show how C&R affects success at spawning or repeat spawning (steelhead) but we know that they can live after being encountered.

This means that the non-selective groups get bigger chunks of the protected fish pie. We can't (and won't even try) to change the Tribal fisheries but we could deal with the NT side if the political will were there. Which it isn't.

They, the commercials, have much more political power and I suspect that the Tribes will support them before they support the recs.

All good points so far but this, it is not about retention but impacts. A dead fish is a dead fish and we burn our Chinook impacts with C&R. Commercials be it tribal or NT burn their impact straight with dead fish and NT Commercials seasons are restricted by no targeted Chinook fisheries per the GH Policy. Given the GHP Chinook restriction, 4/3 limiter on days of the week, daytime only restriction the few Chinook the NT's take are that rather few. As a principle I can see the burn over a couple hundred fish but if you do release mortality being around 8 of the modeled H Chinook 48 encounters so this is about 40 fish. Now I am no fan of nets but in the big picture of all the harvest done this is right down way past minor importance.

Again I get the principle but frankly I find principles fly away with harvest be it tribal, NT Com. or Rec as does fairness. It is that everywhere . Hell with the clamor for two Coho limit rather than one it took last two weeks of August and first two weeks of Sept off the table. One fish Coho bag would have given those weeks for Chehalis below Fuller Hill so I guess I lack a lot of sympathy as I want to kill fish crowd cost the tide water fishers a month of fishing.

Absolutely Rivrguy. It's dead fish. Unless by some miracle of nature there are X hatchery fish and X wild fish to be killed (equal numbers and presence of each) a selective fishery will put the non-selective gears in a hole. It has been said here many times before that if you have a certain number to kill while accessing more abundant stocks you can get more of the abundant stock if you take your kill of wilds as release mortality because survival is >0.

Some of us looking forward are always looking at the weather forecast and flows . So right now the Chehalis is above average flows which is a good place to be right now. Always a believer in the fact that on the coast weather forecast especially long range can be somewhat a pie in the sky it is interesting this year. August is forecast to be a few degrees above normal and very little measurable rain just a couple of shower days. September the first 3 weeks continue the above average temperatures but the last week or so drops well below the 72 degrees average. Rain during September is a few showery days but nothing serious .

Now October is where things really go for a change for about everything. Except for a few days scattered through the October is forecasted to be 4 to 6 degrees below the average of graph line average which means it will be cooler than normal, much cooler. It is the rain that really stands out in the forecast. 16 days of rain going from single day showers to several events that are 4 to 5 days in duration with substantial precipitation in the range of over half an inch daily.

Rain is everything to the Chehalis salmon runs. It determines when and how the fish move. The early rain ( Sept ) like the last few years is great inland messes up bay and tidal fishing. So one could draw the conclusion that unlike the last few years the fish will not blow past the openings where we fish in September but normal slow steady movement with the tides until wherever they stop and stage. That much rain in October is going make things strange. You have both tribal and NT commercial fisheries, it is likely the rivers will do the brown outs early, and the fish will move rather quickly inland some distance. Coho do not move high upstream until the spawning areas water up but stop and stage waiting for more water.

Broodstocking one learns this lesson rather quickly but there is a way to see the signs. When we get enough rain the small streams and beaver ponds fill and dump this brackish black water. It is especially visible on the swamp fed East Fork Satsop and Coho will kinda pause letting this water go by then it is after burners on.

So the crystal ball says nice August & September with normal fish movement and with this years forecast it should rather nice fishing. Now October is likely be downright different as we have not had this weather pattern for some years. One thing for sure if this forecast holds it going to a very interesting late summer early fall salmon fishery. Should be a lot of fun!

08/08/2022



Sorry, Rivrguy.....There was not a lot of clamor from sports, if you'll remember WDFW said "Model" indicated that the Coho run was larger than expected and that a "2 Coho fish limit, wild or hatchery, could be had in the Chehalis, and ALL THE TRIBUTARIES. Remember meetings were "zoomed", you and I were the only people that spoke. Now what I don't know is how many written comments were sent in.

For the last 2 years, the Tributaries and the Chehalis above South Montesano was a 1 hatchery Coho AND the season opened, for adults, October 1. Many sport fishers were pleased to be able to take hatchery or wild.

Wynoochee River, finally has a legal fishery for Coho. Anyone who knows about the 32 years of mitigation, knows that there have been no hatchery Coho placed in that river.....but year after year the regulation was "release wild Coho", could there have been some "dip in", I suppose but I never caught one.

All solid points DW. What was never discussed was two fish August 15 opening or one fish open August 15 for Coho adults. By the GHP the fresh water rec and Chinook mortalities to spare and Coho numbers allowed a good Coho season. By going to 2 fish our Chehalis opening is Sept16 which means the tidewater fisheries will be behind nets 5 out of 6 weeks.

Now the bay 2 fish made sense because that fishery is not behind nets. Tidewater it is right there with stupid. We traded a two fish bag for a restricted season of 6 weeks behind the tribal and NT nets 5 of those weeks. One fish we could a have retained adult Coho August 15 to Oct 31. ( Nov different thing ) Hell of a deal just depends if your retired like us to fish any day or still working with a family. We will do OK but the working stiff got the shaft!

By the way the clamor from sports was the usual folk and bay fishers and throw the guides in. Never was it fully modeled out for the one fish option August 15 or clearly defined what any option impacts were. In fact I am not sure that the two fish bag could have been done has the forecasted escapement for W Coho 29,778 above escapement goal. With Chinook impacts it was simply the the QIN count spawners one way ( approved by the feds ) and WDFW another. The NT side was never even close to allowable GHP impacts. The thing is that with 14K taken on the ocean it leaves only 3K or 4 K available terminal or like this year 3057. The purpose of C&R is to use our 1529 W Chinook in C&R mortalities for a maximum season on abundant Coho. Hell we would have to hook nearly every Chinook coming across the bar to blow our 1529 share of W Chinook. There was and is not now any compelling reason not to have a full Coho season based on the run timing rather than historical prejudice by the managers toward the fresh water Rec fisher.

The zoom thing and the person managing the zoom conference pretty well zipped it along to not allow any serious discussion which I believe was intentional. That you got dead on. When I got the final model ( and distributed it to all that wanted it ) it showed Red ( under escapement ) for W Chinook. I asked why and it was explained to me but the point is this should have been explained so the pubic understood the issue. This Zoom crap of hi, by, what the hell just happened is being deceptive on steroids !

Now this bit I find interesting as it will likely effect our fall fisheries. The long range forecast has been all over the board but has been consistent of this weather pattern through Sept and above average temperatures. October looked wet then not so much but has stayed with below average temps. So it will be interesting as for fishing in the Chehalis in the fall it is more about how much rain in a 24 hrs to bounce the flows. So far the Nov forecast is not so hot with a rain causing a rather substantial jump in flows or mud if prefer that definition. Time will tell but I think it is going to look like the last couple of years but right now Oct. is looking iffy as it wants to be from one extreme to the other.

By Christine Clarridge
Seattle Times staff reporter
This could be hard to imagine now, but with a rare third consecutive La Niña winter in the forecast, Washington could be in for a colder than usual winter, according to assistant state climatologist Karin Bumbaco.

The La Niña pattern that has been in effect for over two years has a good chance of extending into early next year, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. The center is predicting colder than usual temperatures from December through February.

During La Niña events, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia and increasing the cold water upwelling on the western coasts of the Americas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, leading to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are higher than normal in the South and lower than normal in the North, according to NOAA.

Recall, if you will, a few highlights from our past two winters.

Between Feb. 12-14, 2021, about 6-12 inches of snow fell from the Everett area south into Oregon, with Portland receiving 9 inches of snow.

At Sea-Tac, 8.9 inches of snow fell Feb. 13, making it the snowiest single day recorded in February at the airport and the snowiest single day at Sea-Tac since Dec. 31, 1968.

In some areas, the heavy February snow was followed by lots of freezing rain, according to Logan Johnson of the National Weather Service in Seattle.

Last December, during our second consecutive La Niña winter, an arctic blast brought some of the lowest daily temperatures on record to the Puget Sound region and more snow than usual. The weather blanketed roads in snow and led to holiday travel disruptions and power outages.

On Dec. 26, the low at Sea-Tac was 20 degrees, beating the previous low-temperature record of 22 degrees for that date, set 73 years ago in 1948. On Dec. 27, we had a second day of record-breaking lows with the high only reaching 17 degrees.

“If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niña winters in a row in our 73-year record,” said Emily Becker of the University of Miami/CIMAS in an ENSO blog post.

The La Niña cycle, which is linked to more potent weather events, occurred about 28% of the time from 1950-1999, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. But in the past 25 winters, they’ve been brewing nearly half the time.

“[La Niñas] don’t know when to leave,” Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Niña and its more famous flip side, El Niño, told The Associated Press.

Her analysis shows La Niña-like conditions have occurred more often in the past 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.

The whole La Niña and El Niño system has a great influence on weather and climate during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere.

The jury’s out on how we’ll fare in fall.

Last year, more than 19 inches of rain were recorded at Sea-Tac between Sept. 1-Nov. 30, compared with 11.81 inches in a normal fall, according to NWS Seattle.

Western Washington also saw bomb cyclones and one atmospheric river after the next, which brought torrential rain, evacuations, power outages, landslides and severe flooding.

One condition that’s different from years past, according to Bumbaco, is that La Niña winters typically bring above-average precipitation and lower temperatures, but this year the Climate Prediction Center says the odds are equal for above average, average or below average rain.

The Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook for August through October predicts above-normal temperatures statewide.

Boy... sounds like we're all gonna die this winter... or there's just as good a chance El Nino may "save us." Crazy how even the weather forecast is so sensationalized these days. Next time we see an El Nino, the long-range forecast will be for rampant wildfires and catastrophic water shortages.

People who live in the PNW need to start embracing the fact that cold, wet weather is the IDEAL weather for this region. People who fish for anadromous fish have been on board for decades. When will the weather wonks figure it out?

Joking aside, whatever the temps end up like, I'm hoping for small, intermittent rains to start in September. That seems to get things moving in a good direction for at least a good early season on the Chehalis. We'll see what we get. I just hope it rains (for real) at least once before the curtains of death go in....

At least for tributary coho fishing, it was hard to beat the opening week last season with the big rain in the couple days prior to it. Hoping for a better November this year. I think I was only able to get out twice for the B run.

Still keeping my fingers crossed for a limited December fishery. I feel better about it going into this year compared to last.

Long range forecast are always, well almost always, not much good for day to day so I always look for patterns. It is shaping up overall to be dry but the Chehalis has the Olympic side of the basin and upper basin and rain events can be totally different. Bounce the Olympic side early flows right up down color couple three days mainstem good to go. With the time drag for upper basin water to make tidewater if both go out your 7 to 10 days to clear. Inch over a couple days minimal effect but inch in 6 to 8 hours different ball game. Cooler temps in Oct. is a good thing to be sure. Everything I can find says Nov. butt ugly and I think I am being generous on that one.

It would appear that the pattern changes a bit the last of Sept with an event but a bit out for the crystal ball thing.

Several PM's have asked about how fishing is shaping up. Well the bay has been good I am told but only C is open. Jacks on the Chehalis I have not been tracking due to simply being lazy after doing home maintenance for six weeks. Which reinforced the thought in my mind that 74 is getting up there!

Two days ago there was a up tick in adults coming. Getting closer to time to get serious. What has been well above normal is Sturgeon not like the "old days" but much better than the last few years. I watched two guys fight one for some time until they got it to the boat to measure and release. It went over 7 feet and I am aware of some over 6 feet released. It is good to see folks fishing Sturgeon for the fun of it again !

Little edit: I thought about locations and went with the generalization. Frankly it is about acquiring 10 new friends you never knew you had until one post up fishing reports with details. These days with Grays Harbor fishing most say little but OK, great, or bad. OK, most leave great out for the above mentioned reasons.

Well we are into fishing season sorta. Jack fishing is not slow but almost nil! Three guys that are darn good fishers have seen the same with Coho jacks but not much for Chinook either. There are some Chinook around in tidewater but the ones I have seen have off color bellies with that grayish brown side color which means they have been here a bit. Water temps have dropped from around 70 in tidewater to 68 and above South Monte have dropped to 65. Flows are below average mean but not much.

After that god awful Juneuary everything has been late from gardens to apple trees. So it looks like right now the river is just still running a month late. When will it change no idea here but it will change hopefully soon.

Now heads up from Fuller Hill to South Monte the river has changed dramatically from last year and for the worse. I am told the gravel build up around the Satsop and right on down has shallowed things up. Ugly is the description that stuck with me so word to the wise caution is a good thing. South Monte down never changes much but we have got some world class dead heads hanging around. The ugly ones that show in the low water but go under at high water. It is the window in time where they are barely under that is going to be dicey at times. So be careful as those things can do some damage to a boat doing 30 mph!

Some things to think about with sediment transport. The stream drops stuff when it is too heavy to carry. This is why the big rocks (and gold) drops out first and silt last. As sea level rises it slows the river down further upstream. So, places that used to get (say) nice sized gravel now get sand and the gravel drops out upstream.

9/05/2022

Fishing report, Chehalis River above Montesano..... I've stayed away from this thinking things would improve but ?????..

No fish, no jack bites, not seeing any fish "jumping or rolling" in areas around the pump houses. Not even seeing many bank fishermen, and for sure not many boats.

I'll start fishing everyday, now that my late summer projects are done. I've fished this area for 40+ years.....I've never remembered a time like this.

Most year the Chinook jacks are 1st in the area to show, not a favorite of mine, then middle of August to December there is normally Coho jacks being caught. September and October are/have been when most jacks are caught. Water levels allow bank fishermen to fish light gear, with good eggs being important.

Gravel movement has "messed up" some of the better jack fishing areas. There will be "close to each other", fishing until the rains bring the water levels up.

Hopefully things will get better fast......I do enjoy smoking and eating Coho jacks. Caught on 10-13 rods, they can be fun.

Hold over tide today, or I'd be long gone by now.......grrrrrrrr

I've been keeping an eye open here in aberdeen.. haven't seen anything jumping