If our doubts on the Coho runsize were not puzzling enough this, first two day QIN and NT commercials sets came in at around 54% of modeled harvest. The NT’s used tangle nets so one cannot take that to the bank but the QIN that’s not good. The current QIN 4-day set should give us a good look at things to see if the first set was an aberration or the trend. Time will tell all! One thing for sure is our water temps and overall river conditions are as good as it gets for this time of year. Oh and the seals and sealions ....... holy crap sure a lot of them hanging around tidewater.

Speaking of pinnipeds, it is my understanding that salmon were not, historically, the preferred food. Lampreys were much higher on the list, and maybe other stuff. As we have decided that we don't want/need lampreys the 'peds switched to what was more available. Funny how that works.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

Almost forgot to link the weather. The rain forecast around the 15th is stretching out to around the 20th now. Thing is when all is said and done the Olympic side of the basin will still be below average flows and the upper basin well below. The rain looks peaking around the 20th so we will have to wait a few days to what the flows are projected to be after the rain stops for a few days. Not a bad forecast for Rec fishers.

Lots of fish staged up in the bay. The weather is the main factor that's affecting catch right now, if that forecast holds, the rain will get things going.

As mentioned, looks wet coming up. Hopefully that will get a few places going that I intend to frequent.
SF

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi

This may tie into waterfowl and bird migrations, too. I was just wondering if the recent changes in climate, sea surface temperatures, and such are shifting migration timing. We know spring bloom and such is changing; coming earlier I think. Maybe Fall, in terms of temperature, is later. Daylength won't change, so the animals may still respond to that but if the temperatures and circulation patterns aren't right they may not move or may move slower.

I understand some goose migrations now stop well north of where they used to. Maybe the fish are still "out there" of are (as noted) stacked up because all the conditions aren't right.

I know that, as far back as the 80s, that Fraser sockeye migration routes were tied to seas surface temperatures. So much is changing out there and the fish can't catch up.

As one who used to rely on models to estimate run size and such I am afraid that they rely on some level of annual consistency; the underlying flows/tempos/etc are consistent. If they aren't, if they are changing, we can't really predict that impact because we can only look back at what happened.

Long way of saying that in the unsettled world of rapidly changing conditions maybe we should let the fish tell use; let them come to us when they are ready and not when we have scheduled them to perform.

Which means for my water fowling I should maybe hold off a week or two before going....Which, this year, comports well with health issues.

Ive got a brain teaser. When did the climate start changing?

The short answer is that the planet’s climate has never been static. The earth’s orbit and tilt have cycles that change things such as the Sahara being wet and other things similar. So the planet has been warming since the last ice age ended.

The end of the last ice age was caused by a combination of factors, including:

• Earth's orientation
The Earth's orientation shifted toward the sun, melting the northern hemisphere's ice sheets.
• Weakening of the Gulf Stream
This caused warm air and seawater to move south, and pulled carbon dioxide from the deep ocean into the air.
• Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide was a major driver of global warming at the end of the ice age

So since the end of the last ice age the planet has been warming. Some call the little ice age which started around the end of the Roman Empire until the early 1800s due to the Atlantic Escalator stopping which some call a “bump in the road of the warming trend”. To think that humans can control weather is a bit of a fallacy. What we have done and can still do is make a bad situation worse by altering the landscape through industry, agriculture, carbon, and a hundred other things with cities being a biggy for city dwellers day to day conditions.

The city thing? Concrete, asphalt, and steel hold heat in the summer making cities warmer than rural areas. Same with cold but tall buildings create wind patterms and minature weather systems.

The temperature difference between cities and rural areas is usually more noticeable at night and in the winter, and when winds are weak. In the United States, cities can be up to 10°F warmer than the surrounding areas.

Climate has always been changing and will continue to change. What has changed in the past few centuries, and is accelerating, is the rate at which it is changing. It is much faster now than generally in the past but major catastrophes like asteroids, huge volcanic eruptions, and such have created short periods of rapid change and extinction.

Our current problem is that the rate of change exceeds the ability of resources to adapt. Couple that with our general desire to minimize the number of breeders (maximize harvest) we put fewer genes into the mix and the trader ones which might aid in adaptation are less likely to be passed on.

Pogo was right.

The numbers for the first two day fishery for the NT commercial are posted on the WDFW website. So modeled harvest impacts were 92 Chinook and 2156 Coho . Actual is 10 Chinook which is around 11% expected catch. 933 Coho which is 43% of the expected Coho catch. The QIN numbers are not posted so all we have is the heads up staff gave us which was around 54% of modeled harvest. So we wait for the last 4 day QIN catch numbers but the Chinook thing does not make me feel warm and fuzzy all over!

little edit: 12 Chum

still catching chinook in the bay, wait and see what happens with the rain

Chum are up in the tribs already. I caught about a 15 lb chum on Tuesday and saw other chums and kings rolling. Very few coho were around.

About why no QIN nets on a Sunday? They go in tomorrow the 14th and pull Friday the 18th. And I have zero idea whats up as the date is in BOLD print which usually means a change. The reason ......ideas? Oh look at week 43 looks seems they wil be doing a togetherness thing.

https://www.quinaultindiannation.com/Doc...-Regulation-PDF
Week Set-In Date Pull-Out Date


40 Sunday, 9/29/2024 Tuesday, 10/1/2024
41 Sunday, 10/6/2024 Thursday, 10/10/2024
42 Monday, 10/14/2024 Friday, 10/18/2024
43 Sunday, 10/20/2024 Wednesday, 10/23/2024
44 Sunday, 10/27/2024 Wednesday, 10/30/2024
45 Sunday, 11/3/2024 Wednesday, 11/6/2024
46 Sunday, 11/10/2024 Wednesday, 11/13/2024
47 Sunday, 11/17/2024 Wednesday, 11/20/2024
48 Sunday, 11/24/2024 Wednesday, 11/27/2024



NT schedule

8:00 AM through 8:00 PM October 21, 2024
7:00 AM through 3:00 PM October 22, 2024
12:01 PM through 8:00 PM October 30, 2024
8:00 AM through 8:00 PM October 31, 2024
AND
8:00 AM through 8:00 PM November 4, 2024
7:00 AM through 3:00 PM November 5, 2024

Per the subject line of the document you linked, it says, "Week 42 schedule adjustment." DFW's schedule has pullout on Thursday the 17th. So it appears they got an extra day. Yippee.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/tribal/net-schedules#south-coast

Good job, you have go all over to find simple information. I imagine getting the QIN catch will be even more fun.

When I looked at the NT catch on WDFW's webpage the QIN numbers were not posted or I couldn't find them. So emailed staff and asked where they were or not. Much to our combined surprise evedently someone in Olmpia decided to no longer post them on the website. So the QIN first two day set numbers are as follows. Modeled Coho harvest was 3186 actual 1716, Chinook modeled 654 actual 354, modeled Chum 242 actual 81. The numbers of tribal fishers is down the last couple of years and that could be part of it time will tell.

They just decided not to post catch numbers?

It seems somebody decided something but the results all gone no link nothing.

They really don't care about having an informed public, just sheep.