Yes sir that is correct but only Coho.

I suspect that will translate to some significant escapement the next couple of years.

Fish on...

Todd

Hope so. We certainly do not want to blow escapement in 2022!

My bet is we will blow it in '22. With lots of "harvestable" there will be pressure to kill them all rather than put in a buffer. Last year's really hot spell will come back to bite us in the *ss.

The Forecast Eval tab in the forecast model says you might be right. We make escapement ( some streams ) when the run forecast is below actual returns. If you look at the Eval graph over the years it sorta cycles up and down but it is an window of around 4 years each way more or less. In other words in years of an up cycle the forecast lags behind actual return but in years of down cycle declining run size forecast over predict returns. The Eval tab only goes to 2012 but I imagine the pattern holds true.

The lowest wild Coho return I could find was 1991 with the Chehalis at only 6615 / Hump 1005 which gets you 7620. That years return was in a 10 year window with a high of 44k to the low of 7620. The returning adults off the 1991 brood was 17k and change. So the simple fact while Chehalis Coho our prone to a pattern it does have years of rather large or small returns that are not anticipated.

By not allowing the tidewater tribs to make escapement when we have an up cycle we do not benefit because of the reduced brood in those tribs. Make escapement consistently and up cycles are years of abundance vs what we have now is hanging in there good years or bad. Like the man said " Houston we have a problem "!

A problem with salmon forecasts is that they rely on recent years' data. For some reason, the managers love to throw out older data...

Anyway, we know that ocean conditions and subsequent returns are cyclic. Which means you always play catch-up. When the conditions improve, you are using the down years to forecast and vice-versa.

Lastly, and I may have beaten this horse before, I have seen a beautiful model that well represents Oregon coho returns. Uses four ocean variables that are temporally sequential. The problem is that any one can switch the impact. Three bads followed by a good give you a good run; three goods followed by a bad and it sucks. Their conclusion was that management by actual in-season update works best, but that precludes raping and pillaging the ocean.

If we're talking coho, the heat wave this past summer would have killed smolts destined for outmigration in the spring of 2022, and returning as adults in the fall of 2023. That's the year to be worried.

Jack returns in 2022 will be very telling as it regards freshwater survival in 2021.

3/5 penalty box will mean the big run of 2022 will go by "under-harvested" and easily make e-goal.

A failed 2017 escapement falls off the 5 yr schedule, so from 2018 thru 2022, we are once again out of the penalty box for the 2023 season planning.

The million dollar question at that time will be if the 2023 run-size will even be deemed large enough to be harvestable. That's when the heatwave of 2021 will come back to bite us. If 2023 proves to be another down year, back to the penalty box for 2024 season planning.

In summary... penalty box for 2022, unharvestable run for 2023, penalty box for 2024. Yep, gonna be some mighty lean harvest years ahead for Chehalis coho.

The final QIN numbers for 2020 are posted on the WDFW website. Coho came in at 9814 modeled 8772, Chinook 1679 modeled at 1631 and Chum 1191 modeled at 6292. So looking at the initial spawning numbers provided by staff so we might hurt with Chinook. Coho fit the over performing bit but the Chum? They got up with the rain is my thought but that is what my mind had settled on with Chinook until we were provided a preliminary escapement estimate. Have to wait some to see how we did in the end.

New rule number 1 " do not blow Coho escapement " ! I do not know if I agree with Doc's assessment as to the heat wave as it was not prolonged enough to whack the juvies that hard but if I had to pick three probable outcomes it would be one of the three. It had to have some effect but the Chehalis is rain driven and low / warm water are normal. I guess it is a question of to what degree it added to the summer woes.

The thing that concerns me with discussion of the 3/5 box is "Mighty lean harvest" as the place to start. In my simple mind, you rebuild the runs to above the goals and when that happens you harvest. For too long the game has been (and I was a very involved player) to catch as many fish as the paper says are available and hope the escapement results are good. I would like to see the priorities switched.

As a former employee and apologist for the wdfw I am not surprised at your position.

Without fish, and the ecosystem that processes them, you don't have fishing. A chicken or the egg thing.

I truly feel bad for Melanie. You’re a petulant old fool, Bobrr. I wish nothing but the worst for you.

I am not surprised at that last bit,, the dark side being wiped must have really bothered you, most of your posts were there, that shows me who you are. All I did was tell someone that I thought that they sucked up to the state being a former employee. Personally I'd be embarrassed to being part of the shuck and jive game the state has been feeding us all these years. Funny about lack of responsibility for Willapa Bay not being discussed in this context. Or Puget Sound anglers being screwed over in favor of tribal interests. Anyone who believes the state has concern for either the rec. fisherman or the status of the fish runs is the fool. The def. of petulant includes "bad tempered". Anyone who isn't bad tempered about the state's position on tribal rights, litigation, or conservation is a fool. Notice I haven't called anyone in particular a "petulant old fool", if I wanted to call people names or display homophobic, racist, misogynistic tendencies I would post them on the "dark side". Oh, that's right, folks like you got that shut down, And rightfully so.

Melanie here: you can feel bad for me but please feel bad in the proper way, feel bad since the State Of Washington doesn't care about rec fishers, me included. Feel bad because the dept of F&W doesn't protect the fish too. Feel glad since they are protecting THEIR interests of litigation, which will save us $.

Me? Suck up to the State/WDFW? You must have really poor eating comprehension to think that. And as some here can note, I was not singing their praises while there...

Actually my reading comprehension is pretty good, not sure about your "Eating comprehension", doesn't say much for your reading comprehension . Did you not proof read your work there either? I just remember folks discussing "making the state your scapegoat". I don't need a scapegoat, everyone is a party to the fishes demise, it's just that the state has screwed it up more then all of us. Does anyone want to talk about the state backing out of the no kill nets on the Columbia deal with Oregon?

Just because "the state" or "WDFW" does something in no way means that the staff support it. maybe they do, maybe they don't. But attacking people, without making a specific reference to a decision they made/implemente help[s to alienate those folks from helping to accomplish your goals.

And, yeah, I hate autocorrect. But, since the modern lingo is that folks "consume" information, maybe they are eating it.

Keep smiling, C-Man. I'm in your corner. You've been a guru, and helped me to understand many things that puzzled me. Since I published my book, "Fishcop", this year, I've talked to quite a few ex-Fisheries folks who bought it and we talked about how things were, and could be again with a differing approach. But nothing will ever be the same again. The leadership didn't do its job, and look where we are now.

My winter life has changed significantly with the peninsula streams closing for steelhead. Maybe on a sunny day in February I'll just go row the Clearwater, just because.

Tug, I'll be sending in an order for the book; saw an ad in the Reel News. Most of my (now retired) friends from there share the same view as you. Of course, I didn't/don't generally hang out with "them".

Because of the Internet I have been able to connect with a lot of technical folks around the world and I am very fearful that we are at a point where our N Pacific resources are about to tank big time. At the same time, the coldwater anadromous fish will move north (and east across the high Arctic. We here in WA need to quickly learn how to fish Stripers and more of tunas.

Other then saying you are an apologist for the state show me where I have "attacked" you. Pretty thin skinned, I'd say. As I have said, the state, particularly the governor and his hand picked lackeys on the wdfw wildlife commission are indeed the enemy of rec fishers as well as the being a major cause (amongst others we cannot control individually) of the demise of the resource itself. Saying that the state is not deserving of LOTS of criticism is ridiculous to say the least. As Melanie is fond of saying," The state is the enemy of rec. fisherfolk". I have attacked lots of dickwads on this forum, most if not all are dark side regulars who just like to fu*k [Bleeeeep!] up. You are not one of them.