Merry Christmas all and hopefully 2021 will be a great year. ( 2020 certainly stunk up the place )

With the 2020 salmon season done I asked Mike & Kim how the numbers looked but as staff are still compiling data nothing in terms of numbers are available. In general terms though for the Chehalis it looks like this. Chinook numbers were above expectations, Coho and Chum close to forecast. The early normal timed Coho push was just that, they came in early and it was not a banner year. Late Coho seem to be underperforming but it is a bit early to say that with certainty. Unlike Coho and Chinook Chum are a aggregate of Chehalis and Hump so it is a bit more complicated to get a true feel for it other than the Chehalis side did as expected.

So it appears the model performed well enough but as always the devils in the details. QIN Chum harvest numbers way down but the NT Commercials way up so it came out close to expectations. QIN Chinook harvest down but the fish simply got upstream ahead of their season. Coho the same for everyone, except inland fishers, so bay / tidal waters fisheries really suffered. Which always begs the question, if the fish came in as usual and everyone's harvest was as modeled would we have made escapement? Clueless here and that is something that staff will have to let us know once they have all the numbers finalized.

So good bye and good riddance 2020 and hello 2021. Everyone take care and have a great holiday season.

Merry Christmas to all.....

Just so everyone knows, I'd be spoon fishing for hatchery Coho, this morning, if the "NO FISHING FROM A BOAT" was not in the 12/14/2020 rule change.

Last part on November and until 12/14, I had the ability to selectively "take hatchery males from the Chehalis system", released all wild salmon and hatchery females.

2021----Sure hope the "no fishing from boat" doesn't extend to salmon fishing or this old man will be done fishing.......grrrrrrr

Yep, Merry Christmas to all !

DrifterWA, hope you can find some productive spots where you can safely beach the boat and step out.

Couple of folks who know I live on the river asked how the river has been to be on this year. Actually not bad as Dec. & Jan go. The tides and Olympic / Upper Chehalis have not matched up to cause real mayhem. Lot of debris coming down but most of the boats I have seen go by are being careful as far as I can tell. Did see about half a tackle box of floats and plugs float by so somebody had a not my finest moment moment.

I am seeing more boats than normal for this time of year which is a bit puzzling considering the water has not cleared up but for a day or so in a month. That dance Satsop clears upper water arrives then Chehalis almost clears and then another storm arrives has been the general rule.

So yes the Chehalis is runnable but just got to be careful especially if foggy, which has not happened much this year so far. The large trees have mostly been bushy Alders or Cottonwood but the other junk that is just chunks now that crap has been rather prevalent. So be careful if out and about with careful being the key word. The tides are moving water upstream on the incoming which bunches up trash but after this storm flows are to go below average according to NOAA. Just put your cursor on the dot and info is displayed.
https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

Afternoon all. Below is the 2021 schedule for NOF Grays Harbor and Willapa. Notice the lack of Adviser meetings and the gest of it from Mr. Warrens comments ( I am told ) at the Commission meeting was the agency does not find the Adviser process to be productive, to confrontational. They want to use public input instead which in practice the Agency utilizes to provide a dog and pony show format. You would think that Mr. Warren would have learned by now that staff hiding in the office is not the best way gain support for Agency actions. Then again one would have to assume they give a tinkers damn what citizens think.

Little edit: In GH both Kim And Mike have always tried to keep folks informed but it is at the senior level in Region 6 and Olympia that things fall apart. Mr. Herring is a different issue all around and he is supposedly reassigned to another function which is helpful.


Hello Everyone,

Welcome to the 2021 North of Falcon (NOF) planning process. The WDFW website has been updated with the public meeting schedules (see link at https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon/public-meetings). You will notice the 2021 NOF webpage is designed in a timeline format, a bit different from previous years. On the webpage, please note the March and April Grays Harbor meetings are located under the “South Coast proposals”, just click on the date to see meeting details. Listed below are some of the pertinent meetings:

Grays Harbor 2021 NOF meeting dates; all meeting are expected to be conducted virtually via Zoom:
Date Time Meeting
Feb. 25 6 to 8 pm Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor Forecast Meeting
Mar. 24 6 to 8 pm Grays Harbor Fisheries
Apr. 6 6 to 8 pm Grays Harbor Fisheries Discussion

NOF and Pacific Fisheries Management Council (PFMC) 2021 meeting dates all meeting are expected to be conducted virtually:
Date Time Meeting
Feb. 26 9 am to 3 pm 2021 Forecasts (Puget Sound, coastal Washington and Columbia River), Zoom meeting
Mar. 2-5 & 8-11 To be announced PFMC Live Webinar (https://www.pcouncil.org/council_meeting/march-3-10-2020-council-meeting/)
Mar. 16 9 am to 3 pm First North of Falcon Meeting, Zoom meeting
Mar. 31 9 am to 3 pm Second North of Falcon Meeting, Zoom meeting
Apr. 6-9 & 12-15 To be announced PFMC Live Webinar (https://www.pcouncil.org/council_meeting/april-6-13-2021-council-meeting/)
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Couple of PM comments:

First
You have once again hit the nail on the head about a major weakness in the WDFW staff.


Second
The reason is quite simple. During the no fishing from a boat zoom session, they refused to use any of my questions or comments. I was one of the first to ask a question and when the question still wasn't posed at the two hour point I was told they were out of time. Censorship is a wonderful thing when you are bobbing and weaving during the rope a dope. David, I know you are old enough to remember this. Even after my continued complaints after the meeting, they refused to give me an answer or include my comments in the record. By saying the advisors are not relevant, they are saying that we wish to not recognize their great questions. Silence is golden and we want your silence. Gotta love the America of today.

Third comment:
They are just trying to abandon all effort at public input and just tell the stakeholders to **ck off? This is gonna be a bad year as there won't be any pinks to support license sales and everything else is in the porcelain buddha.

For some who have been around the process for years we have a tendency to identify that time with staff in certain positions. For myself the one that stands out is Mr. Anderson as Director and the templet for the agencies processes implemented during his time as Director ( which I find appalling ) are still in play. In this gentlemen's view it is more recent but the person that has been the agency traffic cop on issues on the coast is Mr. Warren.

and Four:
Everybody knows what to expect from failure Ron warren!! Nothing has changed except he was promoted.

For those with long, and as yet functional, memories in the movie "MASH" Hotlips and Hawkeye were discussing Frank's surgical abilities. "Not only is he an excellent surgeon, he is an excellent ARMY surgeon". WDFW is hiring and promoting excellent WDFW staffers.

I thought I would post the press release for everyone. I can remember when this kick off meeting was standing room only but then folks figured out it mattered little what folks thought and now staff outnumber citizens. That said if you have never attended this thing you might find it interesting.

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Feb. 11, 2021
Contact: Kyle Adicks, 360-902-2664
Public Affairs Contact: Eryn Couch, 360-890-6604
WDFW invites public participation in salmon season setting process
Annual North of Falcon process kicks off with Feb. 26 statewide forecast virtual meeting
OLYMPIA – Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) fishery managers have scheduled a variety of opportunities for the public to participate in setting state-managed salmon fishing seasons for 2021, beginning with an annual salmon forecast meeting on Feb. 26.

That meeting is just one of a dozen scheduled virtually as part of each year's salmon season discussions. State fishery managers will consider input from anglers, commercial fishers and others interested in salmon as they work with tribal co-managers to craft this year's fisheries.

“Working together alongside tribal co-managers, we remain committed to fostering a cooperative process that engages all those who care about these important species,” said Kelly Susewind, WDFW Director. “Hearing from Washington’s angling community, commercial fishers, and others is critical to this process, especially as we head into what’s looking like another tough year for some salmon runs. Understanding the public’s priorities helps us and the tribes to come to resolution on which sustainable fishing opportunities can be realized while also meeting our conservation objectives.”

“We are committed to cooperative tribal and state salmon co-management because it works,” said Lorraine Loomis, chair of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission. “Our job gets tougher every year because salmon are steadily declining as their habitat is being lost faster than it can be restored. It will take a lot of work to fix that problem, but we all want the same thing: Healthy salmon runs that can provide sustainable harvest for everyone far into the future.”

From 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 26, WDFW will present initial forecasts derived by WDFW and tribal fisheries biologist analysis. WDFW and tribal forecasters use a suite of scientific data, including watershed sampling and monitoring, ocean indicators, and previous year returns, to predict the number of salmon and steelhead that will return to Northwest waters, and how many fish will be available for harvest.

In addition to attending virtual meetings, other ways the public can participate in the state’s process include:
• Online comments: Starting in early March, the public can provide comments on WDFW’s forecasts and proposed fisheries at: wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon/public-input.
• Conference calls and daily briefings: During the final days of negotiations, state fish managers plan to hold briefings each day, which will be available via conference call.
For a full timeline of the state’s North of Falcon process, including a public meeting schedule with opportunities to participate in virtual meetings and provide public feedback, visit WDFW’s North of Falcon public meeting schedule web page. To support COVID-19 social distancing guidelines, these meeting will be conducted online and be available to the public to watch or listen via webinar or conference call.

This process occurs in tandem with Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) public meetings to establish fishing seasons for salmon in ocean waters 3 to 200 miles off the Pacific coast. The PFMC will discuss preliminary options for ocean fisheries during its March 2-5 and 8-11 meeting and is expected to adopt final ocean fishing seasons and harvest levels at its April 6-9 and 12-15 meeting. More information on these virtual meetings is available on the PFMC’s website.
The collaborative state and tribal salmon season-setting process known as North of Falcon refers to waters north of Oregon’s Cape Falcon, which marks the southern border of Washington’s management of salmon stocks. This includes Puget Sound, Columbia River, and coastal Washington salmon stocks.

WDFW is the state agency tasked with preserving, protecting and perpetuating fish, salmon and salmon habitat while providing sustainable fishing opportunities for non-tribal state interests.

Two PM's asked if this is a "dog & pony show "? Not yes but oh hell yes! Then this, it is a WORLD class D & P ! I mean they have this thing down darn near a art form. So yup D&P but as good as it gets for a D&P.

Below is the information that staff sent out for GH / Willapa NOF.

The Zoom Web Conference link is available (see below) for individuals interested in signing up for the forecast meeting on Thursday February 25, 2021 from 6 to 8 pm.

North of Falcon: Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor Forecasts
Feb 25, 2021, 6 - 8pm
WDFW presents salmon abundance forecasts for Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. Fishery management objectives and preliminary fishing opportunities for 2021 are discussed.
Join Zoom Web Conference
Meeting materials will be posted as they become available.
For more information about the North of Falcon salmon season setting process and a full meeting schedule visit our North of Falcon web page.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/get-involved/calendar/event/north-falcon-willapa-bay-and-grays-harbor-forecasts

No I do not know if they will take questions live. I imagine it will be the canned response bit that they have a tendency to like. E mail them and ask.

Links for ZOOM preseason and I see the links failed so to WDFW's website for the links. https://wdfw.wa.gov/get-involved/calendar/event/north-falcon-willapa-bay-and-grays-harbor-forecasts

To All Interested Parties:

The meeting materials for tonight’s forecast meeting are available for your review, see below or the following link: https://wdfw.wa.gov/get-involved/calendar/event/north-falcon-willapa-bay-and-grays-harbor-forecasts


North of Falcon: Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor Forecasts
Feb 25, 2021, 6 - 8pm
WDFW presents salmon abundance forecasts for Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. Fishery management objectives and preliminary fishing opportunities for 2021 are discussed.
Join Zoom Web Conference
Join by phone: +1 253-215-8782
Meeting ID: 865 1045 5601
Meeting materials
• Agenda
• Presentation
• 2021 Willapa Bay salmon fisheries management objectives
• 2021 Willapa Bay preseason forecast summary
• 2021 Grays Harbor fishery summary
• North of Falcon background and glossary
• Willapa Bay Salmon Management Policy
• Grays Harbor Basin Salmon Management Policy
• 2019-2023 North of Falcon Policy
For more information about the North of Falcon salmon season setting process and a full meeting schedule visit our North of Falcon web page.
/get-involved/calendar/event/north-falcon-willapa-bay-and-grays-harbor-forecasts

I just looked at the summery for coho on the chehalis .. it shows only 23,801 hatchery return to the chehalis and tribs .. 42,000 unclipped

my ? is how many hatcheries are on the chehalis and its tribs?? how many coho do they plant? out of how many eggs they take? im sure they take millions of eggs from them and only getting 23,000 return?? i dont think the ocean conditions are that bad..

i just dont think they are planting the numbers they say.. or they aren't clipping the numbers they say they are..

Well to start they do not take millions of eggs and have not for many years. Skookumchuck Coho releases are mitigation only at 300k. Bingham does around 500k combination of late / normal timed and the Springs 450k normal and Mayres does some. You can find all this information in the brood doc on the WDFW website. Eggtake is brood doc numbers plus and overage to cover minor problems such as blanks and normal mortality. https://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/02119 gets you to the page and you will need to download it. My numbers may be off a bit but not much but they do update the Doc each year.
2012 1,287,330
2013 1,327,854
2014 1,205,580
2015 1,473,300
2016 1,594,750
1,574,134


The run size forecast is 42324 w and 23801 H but the presentation document for tonight's meeting says we crashed right into the 3/5 clause in the GH Policy. ( failed to make escapement 3 out of 5 years ) Escapement goals is 28,506 which leaves about 14000 to be divided up between all the harvesters. That does not get us down the road very far. Using 2019 as an high example FW Rec harvested over 10K and 2019 as a low which was FW harvest of 1631.

What I am curious about is the going through the models I noticed changes between H & W caught in reconciling with QIN numbers. Kinda curious about that. Also the 5 yr window does not include 2020 which may or may not mean much.

the run size any year in the Chehalis is a fraction of what it should and could be. What a joke

02/26/2021

I watched the whole presentation....relative to Coho "data is not complete, spawning surveys are still not done........come on now, how many Coho are still on the move after January of most years????

Does the time spent "covering miles of rivers, looking for a few redds, justify the man power costs and "not being better prepared for NOF.

This has been another year of high water flows, mudded up rivers, how many redds have been missed?????

Might be more meaningful to have charts that show "the amount of redds and locations".

Does the QIN and Chehalis tribe continue redd counts in February forward?????

Odd comment by WDFW. The coho escapement goals/spawner surveys were based on a 12/31 cutoff. We know they spawn into January most years and February occasionally but they should have that all wrapped up by now.

IF they have to go this late every year, then they can't use the most recent year for forecasts anyway, so they should have (in this case) the 2019 ready to go. Besides, that's what updates are for....

It is a bit unusual CM especially if we made escapement in 2020 then we are not in the 3/5 box with Coho. When I questioned if 2020 would make a difference Mike said no then said yes then said they were not done counting. Two things jump up here, one the number of spawners this late is a very small % of the escapement. Second despite the high praise of Mr. Holt when a lady asked a question about redd counts to not having the numbers done that would allow the 2021 process to proceed in well thought out manner is NOT doing a good job. In fact he should have his rear in a sling over it. If this is what WDFW regards as excellent performance I am afraid to ask just what is the standard poor performance.