QIN actual harvest numbers for Oct 1-3 fishery.

Chinook 136
Coho 1,743
Chum 16

The QIN modeled fishery numbers for October 1-3 were:

Chinook 628
Coho 4530
Chum 193

It rained early but damn that Chinook number is ugly. Coho I can get as they did the rain zoom up but Chum no water and early so I get that. That Chinook number mirrors what I have seen and guys in the bay also. We did get a big shot of Chinook mid August but things just have not seemed right since then.

Big thank you for Kim getting the numbers out as soon as staff got them from the QIN.

Haven’t seen a single Chinook in the river either. 3 days of fishing in very early October usually yields a few of them for me.

Should have been on fire today on the Satsop drop. Disgusted I couldn't make it if the next round of rains put it out for a while. Cross your fingers it does't!

QIN numbers look disappointing. Their timing hasn't been as great as what it was looking like, so I can imagine lower than expected catch, but with those numbers, paired with what they're seeing in bay, I'd say at least the chinook appear to be underperforming, rather badly.

I fished a different Grays Harbor river two days ago, and I saw what seemed like good numbers of kings. I incidentally tangled with a couple, and they were very bright, so maybe they didn't really get moving until this last rain or something? I guess we'll find out when the QIN posts last week's numbers. I haven't seen a ton of them in the Satsop yet either, which is odd....

Interestingly, I saw a lot of coho moving in the same river, but most of them were blushers or darker, so perhaps not as many fresh coho moving in as I was hoping for?

No chums yet, but they'll probably come with the next rain.

Anyway, I did see what I would call a better than average number of fish for where I was fishing, and that was encouraging. Fish were definitely on the move; I went back yesterday (wanted to fish the Satsop, but it was way too crowded for my liking), and most of the fish had moved on. What was left was a few, mostly dark, non-biting fish. Went 1 for 1 dinky, blushing buck on a small jig. Really illustrates the importance of timing when chasing these fall salmon....

Has anyone else heard that QIN participation in their net fishery is low? I’ve noticed far less nets up and down the river and so have a few other people. That could help to explain the lower numbers.

I heard that they were only getting $1.00/pound so it’s not really worth it. If that’s true, then I could certainly understand why a lot of net boats might save the fuel. Anyone else hear that? I’m not complaining about less nets. Seeing thousands of fish a day get by isn’t a bad thing.

People more familiar with their fishery might be able to help me figure out if participation really is lower.

Fishers down some I think but mostly it is that they are catching about 25% of the forecasted harvest. Rained early and now there isn't crap coming out of the bay. Even Chum are mostly a no show right now. Everything now says the Chinook forecast was off by a huge amount not some but huge. I doubt we make Chinook escapement or get close. Lets hope Coho and Chum don't fall short but it is to early to panic.

Last report Bingham has 827 adult Coho in the ponds and 500 jacks.

I think coho are fine, but I can only go on what I've seen on the water, which is something less than 1% of everything that's actually happening....

Here's hoping the kings are just doing a really good job of not being seen, but that seems rather dubious this late....

Finally, if the Tribe is only getting $1/pound (really?), that would indicate that the market is flooded with fish from ocean fisheries, so I guess we will know where they went if the numbers don't improve....

As I understand it, AK has gazillions of sockeye and probably their hatchery pinks. Killed the market with them.

The thing is that for fishers it is going to be a bit weird for a while. While managed for normal timed Coho and Late Coho the Chehalis Basin Coho are far more complex. We have the Coho that come in in September and the first part of October which are sorta our summer Coho. Then we have the October Coho followed by the November or Turkey Day Coho then the lates after December 1st. How this plays out year after year varies with what the fish decide to do such as last years early Coho movement and rain / time driven behavior.

This year’s rains early have been a bonus inland and terrible for tidewater. Things were great for a bit but the vast majority of the October Coho are up stream now and staging or spawning. For the last ten days or so the Coho numbers have been dropping off in tidewater and right now it is ugly. Chum are starting to show but QIN harvest numbers are below expectations but we certainly have seals and Sealions all over the place and they are getting some. We have always had Coho that come with the Chum but they seem to be scarce right now.

So lets hope the Coho that come with the Chum are still not up yet because if they did come in with the rain the river will have to really blow out to bring in the November Coho and the forecast has bumps but flows keep returning to below average for some time.

One thing about it the upper Chehalis water from the last rain event arrived a couple of days ago and lord the trash that came with it is awful. Logs limbs chunks like everything one could imagine! What did not arrive was fresh fish in any numbers! Good day to watch the Hawks play.

Some had questions about the QIN numbers not being posted on WDFW's website so I asked. This is the response.

Unfortunately, due to the inconsistent nature of receiving QIN preliminary harvest numbers, they will no longer be placed on WDFW webpage. However, I will be happy to forward you the harvest numbers when they become available. As you know, the final harvest numbers are available at the end of the season in the forecast and planning models.

It just continues to amaze me that one purports to manage salmon runs in the absence of up-to-date catch numbers. It is as if we are on autopilot and the catch numbers are meaningless.

wdfw might be afraid of posting cause they probably get a lot of calls complaining and u cant believe the numbers anyways.

I imagine it is because folks look at the website and no numbers or some others late and bitch out WDFW who do not control the QIN. So not putting up numbers hit and miss didn't work so staff just stopped. About the only other way to do it would be post weeks as always and when the QIN lag post " QIN HAVE YET TO REPORT CATCH "

Back in the 80s we used to get 98% or more of any day's I or NI next catch. I don't care if the co-mis-managers agree that each side is responsible for their catch reporting. I can't effectively manage my fishery if I don't have up-=to-date information on yours.

Unless, as I noted, that we all agree that managing on autopilot is acceptable. And I then recall how well that plane landed at San Francisco when on autopilot.

It has been in the yearly agreement between state and QIN no inseason updates to forecast for a long time. I guess they might have changed it but last time I asked for it I had to go to the courts to get it. The no inseason adjustment came about because old WDF screwed over the QIN big time one year. I doubt the tribe has forgotten.

Well, in season management screws the last in line. For a long time, it was the Tribes who. bore the brunt of conservation. Hence Hoh v. Baldridge. So, the agreement was that the State fishes outside and then the Tribes balance. So,l we craft fisheries for "balance" regardless of the actual impact on the fish. First responsibility is catch. After catching occurs, and meets the goals of catch, we check and see if enough spawners made it to the gravel. Much cheaper, too, as you don't need the staff to monitor catch.

Interesting with the rainfall totals over the last 3 days the rivers didn't bumps as much as I thought they might. Ground sponging it in I suppose.

Something I become aware of sometime back, I noticed that the NT Commercial and QIN were both scheduled for the 18th. I assumed we would get a press release addressing the conflict but nope nothing. So I called and asked what’s up? It appears that error got by both managers and when they become aware of it the QIN did not want to change dates. With low prices for catch a few state fishers and QIN fished at the same time. How’s that for different?

Odd that in PS the recs are closed when the Tribes fish the rivers but not in GH. Nicer people in GH??

More that the tribe fishing is tide water and north channel so folks can get in front of the nets in the bay and above South Monte. What is interesting is forever the QIN refused to fish at the same time as NTs and that is a change. Going forward it could get interesting in future years.