Smalma,
As you know, we usually agree on most everything regarding wild steelhead management...or agree to disagree
This time, however, I'm going have to join Dan S. and call bull$hit...
Even if we accept your simplification that it's not about saving fish, that it's about who gets to kill them, there are signficant differences between the "who gets to kill 'em" options...and they're not allocation issues.
1. Revenue-this is pretty obvious, I think. Fishermen will spend more money in a month than they will in 3-7 days. The argument that effort will drastically reduce due to the requirement to release wild fish doesn't work, either, because it will still be open for retention of hatchery fish.
2. Reduction of hatchery/wild introgression-if a clipped fish retention season lasts a month rather than 3-7 days, more hatchery fish will be removed from the system, meaning less will spawn or attempt to spawn in the system. You know the science better than I do as to the damage done to wild fish by hatchery fish spawning in the river.
3. Satisfaction of those who wish to harvest fish-a month of hatchery fish retention with WSR will put a lot more fish in the freezer than a 3-7 day kill fishery.
Those factors, among others, make a month long selective fishery better than a three day kill fishery, even if I accept that the real issue is just that of allocation, i.e., a battle between the two groups who will kill fish in any fishery, directly or indirectly.
However, I don't accept that as true, either.
What's the projection? Something like 130 wild fish harvested in the kill option? Even using the 10% incidental mortality you cited above that would mean 1300 fish would have to be cnr'd to reach that same level of harvest. That's just not going to happen, and the actual amount cnr'd, multiplied by 10%, will likely be much, much less than 130 fish.
[EDIT: I just re-read the proposals and was reminded that the projected wild fish harvest under options one or two ranges from 143 or so to 223 or so. These numbers make the above argument regarding relative mortalities between the options even more compelling...1400 fish cnr'd would be even more amazing, and 2300 of them would be almost unbelievable. Not just an allocation issue...
]
While I appreciate "erring on the side of the fish", as you noted above, presumably due to the inordinate amount of times you've had that phrase thrown at you, I think it better applies to things we don't know. The compilation of all the available steelhead hook and release mortality studies, which you've seen, shows a pretty consistent 3%-5% mortality.
I'm having a really hard time seeing why any other option even comes close to option three, in terms of conservation, opportunity, or revenue, not to mention reducing a bit of the pressure on the Sauk/Skagit and OP streams.
Fish on...
Todd.
Oh, yeah, anyone who truly believes that either there are no wild fish, or that hatchery fish spawning in the wild is in any way good, then they are completely ignorant of the ALL the current scientific data whose results are directly contrary to those beliefs.