I did a little noodling in Excel on the run size. According to the Compact documents, actions are based on an estimated run size of 145,000 fish over Bonneville.

Based on my calculations, we're on track for a run size of about 188,000 fish. To reach this, I used the following bonneville dam counts. 4/12 and before are actual. 4/13 and after are an average of the previous week, and then declining as shown.

This estimate is probably conservative, as we have had a couple of huge days over the dam in the past two years, and that isn't factored in.

What this means is that if the run size is larger, we may get allowed to handle more wild fish, and that means the season my get continued. We were on track to hit the allowable impact by yesterday, based on the original run size.

So, the biologists are probably running similar, but more educated spreadsheets. Seems to me like we'll likely be able to continue fishing. The bad news is, the commercials may get a day in there as well that could hurt us.

BTW, dates are off by one, bad typing. Doesn't effect the basic conclusion.

2-Mar 121
3-Mar 102
4-Mar 127
5-Mar 140
6-Mar 213
7-Mar 266
8-Mar 371
9-Mar 394
10-Mar 627
11-Mar 516
12-Mar 307
13-Mar 323
14-Mar 595
15-Mar 942
16-Mar 416
17-Mar 559
18-Mar 736
19-Mar 426
20-Mar 332
21-Mar 343
22-Mar 150
23-Mar 99
24-Mar 115
25-Mar 622
26-Mar 1973
27-Mar 2161
28-Mar 1690
29-Mar 1807
30-Mar 2580
31-Mar 2574
1-Apr 1687
2-Apr 1293
3-Apr 1567
4-Apr 3823
5-Apr 7455
6-Apr 3900
7-Apr 2629
8-Apr 3591
9-Apr 3955
10-Apr 6402
11-Apr 5302 total to date
12-Apr 4632 63,231
13-Apr 4632 Average of previous week
14-Apr 4632
15-Apr 4632
16-Apr 4632
17-Apr 4632
18-Apr 4632
19-Apr 4632
20-Apr 4632
21-Apr 4632
22-Apr 4632
23-Apr 4632
24-Apr 4632
25-Apr 4632
26-Apr 4632
27-Apr 3706 80% of previous day
28-Apr 3706
29-Apr 3706
30-Apr 3706
1-May 3706
2-May 3706
3-May 3706
4-May 2965 80% of previous day
5-May 2965
6-May 2965
7-May 2965
8-May 2965
9-May 2965
10-May 2965
11-May 1779 60% of previous day
12-May 1779
13-May 1779
14-May 1779 total
15-May 1779 188,298

Now, THAT's a homework assignment!

What kind of curve did you assume? Most statistical type curves use some form of a Gaussian distribution (ie, Bell curve). This type of curve rises and falls much more rapidly than what you have tabulated.

yes but his numbers on the rise are actual #s

I didn't assume a curve at all. I just eyeballed the rise and fall in the past two years, and did some very casual estimating. Took about 5 minutes, so that's all it's worth. But it was enough to make me make plans to fish this coming week - that we might have a season.

You were starting the process of making your own curve, which is fun to do (at least it was for me). Once the curve seems to peak, you should have about the same numbers on the downward side.

The other variable in the decision is the catch, and it's my understanding from the R5 biologists I talked to that the catch of wild fish has exceeded the number agreed to in order to continue fishing. So the whole shebang likely comes to an end unless the actual numbers, not projected numbers as this is extinction we are talking about, are higher as you indicate they might be SH. So I am not making plans to continue fishing next week.

Spawnout,

I agree. The season extension will be based on the handling of wild fish, in combination with the projected run size. My understanding is that either statistic can effect the decision, and the point of the above is that it seems pretty straighforward to conclude that the run size estimate should be adjusted upward. I hope they do, and I guess we'll know tomorrow.

Because I didn't see anything on the WDFW website even hinting at considering a closure, maybe it's possible that they will at least let us fish this week, esp. if the numbers go up. Hope they reach the same conclusion as you SH

I heard it again today, second hand from a bioligist that they where not going to open it... you cant beleive how this ticks me off....its such a good fishery for me becouse i can take people out and relax and catch springers, my other fisheries are elbow to elbow and more or less combat fishing, which nobody really enjoys but ya gotta do if your going to barba cue springers this summer....I think I am going to take one for the team and just go fish, screw em....

SH,

If you would simply calculate the standard deviation for the last 2 years using dates, capture out to 2SD, and then project inside that curve for this year, you could probably tighten up your model. You do recall how to do that from Econ/Stats, don't you?