A`m I missing something? The WDF wants to protect wild fish on OP rivers at the same time it has asked NOAA to raise the wild kill on the Columbia! I can`t figure that one out.

CFM: As I said in my post, I don't know for sure what will happen with the Forks area streams. That is really my point. They don't know either. But I do know that there have been numerous B.C. small towns that have prospered either because of, or in spite of, C&R.

I question your assertion that there are ten failures for every sucess. What was the science behind that statement?

Well, I have thought and thought and still will do more research. I believe it will indeed hurt Forks economicaly. I love small towns and don't wan't them to be hurt but there will be less fisherman if there is mandatory release in effect. I will be one of them. I just pictured myself catching the HUGE steelheed of my life. Oh, it;s a native, damn't! It must go back in because I want the run to survive. Moral issue. Then, the guy 20 yards up catches the same fish. Keeps it because it is his right and now I am mad. It was my fish first! I can see the arguments now. Bash me as you will, but I think the rules should be black and white. Leaving the moral issues to some will cause for as much fights as the snaGGING ISSUE. I'd be truly interested in hearing the Forks feelings on this. I don't want their town hurt, but am more concerned with others harvesting fish , while we fight each other!

NOW AFTER LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS!
Do think this is a bad or what!

Angg: The real question here is will the C&R rules increase the opportunity for sports anglers to catch steelhead? If so, Forks will make out fine. I have seen this time and again.

It takes some time for some anglers to get into the idea of releasing a fish. But given time the idea becomes so ingrained that most anglers would not consider killing a wild steelhead.

In B.C. they id the mandatory C&R province wide in one swoop, (yes there were and are some VERY insignificant exceptions) the sport s fishers were very angry and many did indeed quit fishing. BUT as the steelhead recovered the fishermen came back and now many of the B.C. Rivers are world-class destinations. There are several top-flight lodges in B.C. that cater to wealthy worldwide steelhead anglers. And there are many motel, guides and restaurants that owe their existence to the top notch fishing opportunities on those C&R rivers.

I do not claim to be certain that the C&R will increase returns of wild steelhead, but I am certain that if the fish come back, so will the fishermen. C&R will not be a deterrent for the vast majority of steelheaders.

Oh, Dave, how could I argue with anyone that fishes BC? My actual point was opposite of most. I'd really like to catch all fish, but if there is a moral choice, I don't want to leave it to all.I will let them go(biggest one ) and educate myself on the life of a steelhead. I just hate to watch another catching a native. Is it right, wrong , maybe issue? It is too grey to decide.Forks is a great area to ask about the fallouts. Their business depends on fishermen, will the fishermen return , yes, but how soon?

Oh, Dave, how could I argue with anyone that fishes BC? My actual point was opposite of most. I'd really like to catch all fish, but if there is a moral choice, I don't want to leave it to all.I will let them go(biggest one ) and educate myself on the life of a steelhead. I just hate to watch another catching a native. Is it right, wrong , maybe issue? It is too grey to decide.Forks is a great area to ask about the fallouts. Their business depends on fishermen, will the fishermen return , yes, but how soon?

Loafer, the difference is that the Fish & Wildlife Commission enacted the Wild Steelhead Moratorium, WDFW Region 5 petitioned the NMFS for a higher impact on ESA listed steelhead. Man, it would be good if the agency(WDFW) and its Governing body (Fish & Wildlife Commission) could get on the same page, but sometimes I think they just don't like one another.

Plunker

I do respect the amount of work and research that you do for this board. Truly you do care about fish and fishing!

I also understand the huge amount of work and effort that you do when you make your posts! I wish that I could focus as well as you do when you do your research. I guess some of us have too many pokers in the fire at times.

Good job!

Cowlitzfisherman

Okay some quick food for thought before I run off to a meeting in town tonight:

Plunker, #1 - you have to assume that the 5900 number is the the correct level for the Quillayute system. Given the track record of MSY models with over 95% failure in this state, please enlighten why it will be any different for the Quillayute system.

#2 - one key word here is "system". These numbers do not reflect the shortages in some parts of the drainage that have been made up for in the total count by other areas, ie Bogey vs. Sol Duc.

#3 - Timing. Does having a bunch of fish at the end of the year to meet a "goal" mean the run is healthy?? Regardless of how earlier returning fish ar doing? I think not ... graphs and such do not reflect the fact that the early component is down.

#4 - Let's put these numbers on a graph:



There, now we see the five straight years of declining returns in a big drop at the end of this chart. Jusdging from what we've seen so far this year, we're well on our way to year 6 in a row of decline. Do we wait until we're at some piss-poor point before we act again?

Lets compare the Quillayute graph to a river you love. Slide the timeline around about ten years and you see a similar trend perhaps?



Looks like the Skagit was doing well for a while before it fell on its tail too! Green and Snohomish charts look pretty similar.

Let's show one that never seems to be brought up by the opposition to mandatory C&R:



2003 was the lowest escapement on record in over 25 years.

6 out of the past 11 years the river failed to meet escapement. Probably would have been more save for two years of closures / C&R restrictions on the couple of years that it made it (barely).

Would be even more than that if original goal for the river is used. How come WDFW escapement goals always seem to drop when most other fisheries on the west coast have seen the goals bumped in the past 10 years?

Ah heck, I give up, let's kill the last ones in here too

Cowlitz..

You are exactly right.. the kind of slime that keep wild steelhead are the kind that would slash the tires on someones new truck if they knew that person supported the wild harvest ban.. and some of them might even fore off that pop shot your talking about in the need for bullet proof vests..
I saw that exact attitude and HATE for catch and release fishermen at a ODFW meeting a few years ago down on the North Umpqua..
The ANTI WRS guys are not concerned about hooking mortality.. they aren't concrned about any other enviromental issue they are only pissed off that it's now illegal for them to kill everything they catch. They are bitter and vindictive.. That's why no one in roseburg has a trout unlimited sticker on their vehicle..

Dave.. i don't think anyone sees catch and release sport fishing as a solution in and of itself. However it is in my opinion the only way to maintain any kind of fishery on dwindeling steelhead stocks.. CnR is the balance between the needs of the fish and the desires of the sport fishermen..

See what happens when you go to meetings!

Thanks BOB

I was hopeing one of them would take the BAIT!

Bob thank you for posting those charts it saved Todd or me the time of doing it. The Queets is an other nice downward slop.

Plunker I don't see how you can say that we haven't had a downward trend for 5 years in a row we have just follow the green line on your charts.

What everyone that I know has always said is the quillayute is the only river that we have seen with a wild winter run that is going up yet in the last 5 years it has seen a steep decline in fish numbers.

Thanks for posting the charts. Nice to see what the actual raw numbers are saying

JJ - The Quillayute Run Size has declined for the last four years (the escapement for five) but the decline has been from an exceptional peak in abundance. What goes up goes back down.

it's notable that last years returns were near precisely average for the last 25 years and the average includes those exceptional returns.

The average run size for those last four declining years was about 3000 fish above average and double the escapement goal.

--- --- ---

Bob,

Thanks for posting those charts. I highly appreciate someone putting up actual facts rather than simply "claiming" that the runs are declining somewhere.

I do have a copy of the Skagit Chart you posted but mine is older, "doyle 12-7-01 Rev C". I copied it from an interesting study that I found online a while back. I'm pretty sure it was on a TU site that has been removed and that the link to it was obtained here.

It does seem that the study is no longer publicly online, has been updated and that you and JJ and some others have electronic copies. I was very impressed with the data and analysis in that study and would love to have a copy.

If you or someone has a electronic copy that you are willing to share then please let me know and I will send you my ISP email address.

Thanks for your consideration. - Plunk

PS: Did anyone but me notice that the Skagit Run size has been increasing for three years straight? It has made or exceeded escapement for two years and that is a good sign but my more detailed charts reveal that the production rate was still below average for 2003 but it looks to be far above average this year.

Here is a Skagit Chart that needs some updating:



The "Predicted Run Size" here is simply the average 1.25 X the escapement from four years earlier. That line will soon be replaced with one tht considers the average production and return rates of the three main components, 2-salt, 3-salt and 2nd time spawners.

It seems apparent that without smolt out-migration numbers that drawing any conclusions about the systems "health" would be somewhat of a guess.

I do believe that much of the variation is cyclic in nature even when no repetitive pattern is discernable. For the returns to be average it would be unusual as is true with the weather.

Plunk...

Its hard to tell how much consideration you are giving to the thought of run timing, which to me is the most crucial aspect the wsr regulation addresses. Out here, especially in the quillayute system those early fish suffer tremendous pressure due to the infamous early 'brats' season.

It was ironic to me to overhear in the coffee shop a guy complaining about the new wsr rules....and then to have him notice me wearing waders, proceeding to tell me how good it used to be on the upper bogie for nates this time of year.

Do you know how many times I've heard the stories about what it used to be like? I'm sure you get them out your way too...the blame/resentment for change always gets placed externally...."city folks", "guide pressure", "wdfw"......etc.....if you want to have a really good conversation like this, try allens bar when the river is out but dropping.

IMO, the majority of the political opposition in Forks doesn't come from the 'fishing businesses', is coming from the general population itself. I think the businesses know that in the end, even if they have to suffer a bit in the short term, they will survive and maybe even benefit. Especially if they start using the rule to their advantage from a marketing perspective........

Its the townspeople though that are most up in arms. The average guy, which for me is way easier to understand. Its the dude who grew up fishing in the creek in his backyard with a pitchfork and had his ability to harvest fish diminish from THAT kind of limitless freedom to what amounts to nothing now...

Basically, all the guys I couldn't ever really invite to go fishing because i didn't want to have them killing nates out of my boat.

...and the hardcore subsistence families will also suffer, although truthfully there are very few of those left any more.

Graphs and charts irritate me a lil in spite of their ability to genuinely educate. It seems like for every chart one guy throws up there another guy can post one that counters it. The WSC holds a high degree of credibility with me though and their numbers are more reflective of what I have experienced empirically.

stlhdh2o,

Nicely Said!