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#598355 - 05/03/10 11:55 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: slabhunter]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
Stuart Ellis is running the show now from what I'm hearing. So the lower river managers are off the hook.
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#598362 - 05/04/10 12:36 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: stlhdr1]
Gatorgetter Offline
Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 04/13/09
Posts: 155
Loc: On the run!
Originally Posted By: stlhdr1
Originally Posted By: autopilot70
Originally Posted By: stlhdr1
Keep our fingers crossed for a solid season on the summer kings... I can't wait.....

Keith thumbs
Did you notice the new rules are back to hatchery only on the lower river? I hope they at least let us fish before the nets go in.


I hadn't seen that yet....... Makes me puke that they are going to take that away from us as well..........



Keith huh


Keith, it's the old jackass here


I might be missing something but why would you even want to keep a non clipped "native" fish? Seams to me anything with all there fins are taboo to bonk on this site even if it's legal.

Please educate an old jackass if he is missing something.

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#598367 - 05/04/10 12:51 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: eyeFISH]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12618
Originally Posted By: eyeFISH



Seems pretty reasonable to me seeing as we've counted about midway thru the run-size. We'll certainly know better by next week.

We've got 149K past the dam plus another 30K harvested before the dam. 149 + 30 = 179K.

Double 179K means a total run-size estimate in the neighborhood of 358K.



Before somebody calls me out.... I stand corrected.

"Non-Treaty harvest of upriver stock Chinook to date totals 32,197 fish"

So it's actually 149K plus 32K = 181K thru May 2.

Double it and we're in the neighborhood of 362K.

Took us 22 days to hit 180K.... 44 counting days left.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#598377 - 05/04/10 01:56 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: Bill on the bay]
Ikissmykiss Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 03/01/03
Posts: 1244
Loc: Snohomish County
Originally Posted By: Bill on the bay
Will a gillnetter be able to sucsessfully convert and be efficient at using a seine net?

IMO...No.

You are correct, Billbay Baggins, when you say gillnets are indiscriminate killers of virtually all species of fish, birds, and mammals they come in contact with while seiners do have the ability to be more selective in what they harvest. But I don't see any possible way that a gillnet boat can be converted to a seine boat....you couldn't fit 10% of a typical seine net aboard a gillnetter. When you switch to seine nets you're essentially switching the entire fleet of commercial fishing boats....gillnet boats head to the docks and the seiners come out.

To my knowledge there is only one tribal purse seiner in the entire commercial fleet...the Admiral. So treaty fishermen would need new boats as well as new nets. Non-treaty seine boats would more than likely need to construct brand new nets (~$50,000) to fish the CR...the "fall nets" they use for Puget Sound chums are too immense, both too long and too deep. They might be able to use their "SE nets" they use in Alaska but I can't say for sure.

Even if all the harvest was done with seiners I'm not sure how feasibile it is to selectively harvest the clipped fish. Here's the scenario....the seine boat purses up the whole seine and now you have, say, 250 fish (4,000 pounds is a decent set) in the net along side the boat.....150 clipped Springers, 50 ESA Springers, and 50 wild steelhead.

How do you get the steelhead and wild (or as Keith says, and I agree, the unclipped hatchery) springers out of the big net and release them unharmed? If you hoist them out of the water and dump them on the deck they are, for the most part, dead. The only way I can see it could be done is to take hand nets and circle around the purse seine in the skiff and hand dip all the ESA fish out. Right! That would be more than a little time consuming, if it's even possible. Commercial fisherman don't give a rat's ass about ESA fish, they're out there fishing for the money. If it takes them 2 hours each set to sort through 250 fish by hand to remove the 100 ESA fish, I just don't think it would be worth it for them.

Using seine nets sounds good in theory, I'm just not sure how feasible, both logistically and economically, it really is.

Ike

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#598389 - 05/04/10 08:17 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: Ikissmykiss]
Bill on the bay Offline
Alevin

Registered: 05/01/10
Posts: 10
Loc: Union,Wa
Baggins? I should have been more specific-I was refering to the "Beach Seine" method-It is work,can be very effective at both catch and release. But maybe not feasible in the Columbia? As far as giving a rat's a$$, some don't but many do.

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#598399 - 05/04/10 09:36 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: Ikissmykiss]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
Pretty Good summary, and when the boats get bigger the cost to run them skyrockets which means they need alot more fish to make the same amount of money at the end of year..Wouldn't be any different than requiring the guides who fish Bouy 10 to buy 43ft Delta boats because there safer.
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#598402 - 05/04/10 09:59 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: SBD]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
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#598410 - 05/04/10 10:57 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: SBD]
Canyon Man Offline
The Golden Child

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 1195
Loc: Bothell, WA U.S.A.
And another 9000+ yesterday. People may not want to hear this, but wdfw and odfw may be pretty close on this one. Seems that by looking at historical data that 1/2 the run is through by May 7th. If it tracks like the last several days that's another 30,000+ in the next 4 days. 158,000 (already over)+32,000(harvest downriver)+30,000(counts for the next 4 days)=



220,000 x 2=440,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We could be definitely in the 400,000 range and maybe even higher. This will be very interesting to watch. I just love ALL the internet biologists that KNOW what the number is going to be before it shows up. I agree like most that these run models are not perfect, but when they get them right(as it looks like they will be close) I think the wdfw and odfw deserve some kuddos. Well done this time and thanks for a great season!

CM


Edited by Canyon Man (05/04/10 10:58 AM)
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#598414 - 05/04/10 11:16 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: Canyon Man]
big moby Offline
Carcass

Registered: 08/28/08
Posts: 2150
Loc: varies
I like your style canyon thumbs
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Roger That

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#598418 - 05/04/10 11:33 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: big moby]
snit Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 1817
Loc: Wenatchee, WA
+2...Word "CM"
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#598419 - 05/04/10 11:36 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: big moby]
STRIKE ZONE Offline
GOOD LUCK

Registered: 08/09/00
Posts: 11969
Loc: Hobart,Wa U.S.A
My pre-season prediction was 180-200K.I was way off and wrong,your right canyon man they do deserve some kudos.It has been and will continue to be a great springer season.Headin out this weekend for round 5.Good luck,
STRIKE ZONE

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#598421 - 05/04/10 11:43 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: STRIKE ZONE]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
Yup mine was off too but its from years of watching run after run getting over predicted. But I think when its said and done another group might get the Kudo's for this one, just took the threat of a lawsuit to make it happen..
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#598427 - 05/04/10 12:41 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: Gatorgetter]
stlhdr1 Offline
BUCK NASTY!!

Registered: 01/26/00
Posts: 6312
Loc: Vancouver, WA
Originally Posted By: Gatorgetter
Originally Posted By: stlhdr1
Originally Posted By: autopilot70
Originally Posted By: stlhdr1
Keep our fingers crossed for a solid season on the summer kings... I can't wait.....

Keith thumbs
Did you notice the new rules are back to hatchery only on the lower river? I hope they at least let us fish before the nets go in.


I hadn't seen that yet....... Makes me puke that they are going to take that away from us as well..........



Keith huh


Keith, it's the old jackass here


I might be missing something but why would you even want to keep a non clipped "native" fish? Seams to me anything with all there fins are taboo to bonk on this site even if it's legal.

Please educate an old jackass if he is missing something.


Ahh, good seeing you again.......

Why would I want to keep a "native summer-king"? Well first off, let's go back and do some math. I know it may seem odd but I've kept detailed logs of a lot of things over the years... Most of my logs are of some fairly sizeable samples.

For instance, in 2008 we (me and the group of fishing buddies) landed/killed 61 summer kings. Of those 61, 48 were clipped fish... Let's do some math backwards now, that means we landed 78.69% clipped fish. Did you by chance open the pdf file that showed that the 2005 Brood Year had a 76% ad-clip rate from all the hatcheries that released the summer kings....

Coincidence? Maybe.... But I doubt there are very many "true native" summer kings left as well as the springers I've preached about over the past. #'s don't lie, the only issue with my figures is the smaller sample size but it's sure ironic that we as a group landed 78.69% clipped fish and the 2005 Brood year was released at a 76% ad-clip rate....

So, am I really killing "true native fish"??

I'll happily support a hatchery only fishery when we actually have clip rates over 95%.... help

Like I keep saying, we don't really want to know what we really have left......... I'd hate to see the consequences...

Keith thumbs
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It's time to put the red rubber nose away, clown seasons over.


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#598443 - 05/04/10 03:51 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: stlhdr1]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
Listened to the Compact today, Nobody from TAC thinks were going to hit 470000. Selects are going to open up for some short seasons after test fishing showed no upriver fish. Tribes want another compact tomorrow to set another season and mainstem below Bonneville S/C seasons are on hold for now.
_________________________


There's a sucker born every minute



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#598444 - 05/04/10 03:56 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: SBD]
stlhdr1 Offline
BUCK NASTY!!

Registered: 01/26/00
Posts: 6312
Loc: Vancouver, WA
Originally Posted By: SBD
Listened to the Compact today, Nobody from TAC thinks were going to hit 470000. Selects are going to open up for some short seasons after test fishing showed no upriver fish. Tribes want another compact tomorrow to set another season and mainstem below Bonneville S/C seasons are on hold for now.


Wonder if they'll open the S/C seasons on schedule... May 16th for the steelhead this year according to the regulations plus getting to keep jack kings, June 16th for the Adult Kings also.......

Hmmm....

I'm anxious for June 16th, best eating fish in the river systems.....

Keith thumbs
_________________________
It's time to put the red rubber nose away, clown seasons over.


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#598445 - 05/04/10 04:00 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: stlhdr1]
SBD Offline
clown flocker

Registered: 10/19/09
Posts: 3731
Loc: Water
I think those are still on track with the buffer in place..Like doc said were out of the hole now with a little pocket change.
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There's a sucker born every minute



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#598504 - 05/05/10 12:29 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: ]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12618
I say we end up in the 350-400 range or better by mid-June.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#598544 - 05/05/10 10:18 AM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: eyeFISH]
big moby Offline
Carcass

Registered: 08/28/08
Posts: 2150
Loc: varies
woot
_________________________
Roger That

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#598551 - 05/05/10 12:23 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: big moby]
slabhunter Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/17/04
Posts: 3744
Loc: Sheltona Beach
4808 reported over the dam yesterday.

Looks like the peak was ealier, the 21st?
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#598558 - 05/05/10 01:11 PM Re: 470,000?? I'm not so sure...... [Re: slabhunter]
stlhdr1 Offline
BUCK NASTY!!

Registered: 01/26/00
Posts: 6312
Loc: Vancouver, WA
Originally Posted By: slabhunter
4808 reported over the dam yesterday.

Looks like the peak was ealier, the 21st?


Nah, the peak is still coming........ umbrella

All pun aside, I hope there's a bigger peak for the sake of things.....

Keith
_________________________
It's time to put the red rubber nose away, clown seasons over.


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