What bothers me if there having such a hard time with projections inriver what about the salt fisherys that have been allowed to continue intill the quota is filled for the last 50 years.

http://www.fpc.org/currentdaily/HistFishTwo_7day-ytd_Adults.htm



Oh-My Goodness

am I reading that right? 709 over yesterday? ouch

Ouch.It was fun while it lasted.Good luck,
STRIKE ZONE

"Keith"-3-05-10, 470,000?? I'm not so sure....

Good call there mister. I just thought I would give credit to your prediction and very inciteful knowledge of that run. This weeks escapement put the Cowlitz at 2794 adults. The prediction there was for 12,000 +. Anyone want to bet they don't make thier eggtake goal?

Officially outta steam.

Glad I got a few before the bubble burst.

Actually if you look at the FPC graph (something my browser won't let me post) June 15th is the peak of the summer run at Bonneville not the end of the spring run..Not sure why were counting all the way intill then as springers?

It may have started out as an attempt to increase the numbers for the spring run to try to make thier incompetancy of run predictions not so obvious.

If thats the case they better make Aug 1st the cut off for 2010.

the Cowlitz "will" attain their egg-take goal no problem. Doesn't take 12K springs. Half of those boot kings caught there in september are springers anyhow, ripe and ready to be stripped!

Although the SW WA tribs are pretty pothetic fishing the Lewis and Cowlitz should make their adult quota for egg take. The Kalama might be a different story.

They need to rid of the strain of fish they are using and go back to the Carson stock they used in the late 80's. Those fish had a lot higher smolt to adult survival ratio...

Keith

Last two days down in the 700's..... OUCH!

I'm normally kind of a doom-and-gloom guy when it comes to fish counts, but in this case I suspect there might stsill be a few 1000 fish + days in the Bonneville counts. Note that the flows at Bonneville have jumped from averaging 170-180K cfs a week ago to averaging 220-270k cfs over the past few days. My observation has been that fish counts lag for a few days when they jack the flows up at Bonneville because the fish have a hard time finding the ladders. The way the jack passage dipped along with the adult passage tells me maybe there are a few fish stacking up below the dam for the sealions instead of swimming through.

Still obviously we're never going to get the promised mother lode of fish counts, as I've maintained from the start.

It will pick up in about a week as the summers start moving.

It will be interesting to see if the netters again catch upriver fish in the Select Areas with these flows.

They already are trickling through... We've caught the summers out there as early as Mid May! First week of June can put out some BIG fish, but as you know this year we don't get to kill them til the 16th..... I miss fishing for them early pigs!!

Keith

Got Salt fisherys going on to right out front, there getting picked off all down the line.

http://www.ptoccentral.org/Ptoc_OM/


If you click the green bar in upper left hand corner then go down to Adult ladder detections and run the Query you get the daily tag report..Interesting! You can also click on each detection for more information such as release site and hatchery.

With 17 days of counting yet to report, there's still some nice fish trickling by the dam cam.

Thru 5/29 we're at 239K

Assuming 17 days at 1500 a day means adding another 25K.

Add 32K taken by NON-treaty fisheries belwo Bonne.

Add 5K-plus for treaty fishery below Bonne.

That makes 301K before sea lion predation which had been running 5%.

Add another 15K for the furbags below Bonne and the projection is going to be around 316K by the time counting is over.