I heard we need 340000 to pencil out, Tribes went over alittle too.


http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/FS/10/10_05_19sf8.pdf

That 340K projection was nearly 2 weeks ago. Counts have slowed considerably since then.

And yes, at 340K, the tribes have gone over.

So at less than 340K they're impact overage only looks worse.

For the record, the NON-treaty impacts consumed in the lower river were officially bought and paid for at a run-size of 280K.

Not holding my breath that WDFW/ODFW will give us a chance to make up the catch imbalance with the tribes.

http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/FS/10/10_05_17sf7.pdf


Non Tribal Commercial is out at 280000, Sport is over, but combined we need 340000 or close to it.

My guess is counts will go to 3300-3900 by the 7th of June. We should see some spikes in the run by that time especially if we're going to see 88,000 Summer Kings.

Don't ask me how I know but I've got a few pics of some nice early C-n-R'd summer kings...

Keith

I think we will hit 340000 too, just not sure if I would call them Springers.. But what ever works, at least the summer run is 30-40% over the dam before the fishing starts. Then we know whats there and if it comes in short adjustments can be made.

244423 would be the dam passage at the historical timeline.

I'm confused, Francis- the PLANNED non-treaty impacts were bought and paid for at a run size of about 270-280K but I thought the harvest levels the WDFW/ODFW allowed in the lower river brought us to a sport catch impact requiring a run size of about 330K to make it acceptable? If we end up much less than 340K there's still a chance both the sporties and the tribes will share a black eye.

I got the 280K number from FishBulb... his info is typically GOLDEN. But maybe I misunderstood.

470K less 40% buffer times 1% sport impact allocation divided by 10% mortality = a total handle (H + W) of 28.2K upriver fish.

Lower river sports took 22,641 keepers and released 2,864 wilds for a total handle of 25.5K.

That leaves a handle of 2.7K for upriver guys at the 40% buffered run of 282K.

OK they caught about 6000 fish above Bonne, so you're right. 280K doesn't pay for our rec catches.

28.2K plus another 6K would be 34.2K total handle. That would take a runsize of 342K to cover the wild impact already expended.

Houston... we HAVE a problem.

OK we may have a problem, but the tribes overfished their 40% buffered share as well.... and by a bigger margin.

Looks like they will need a run-size of about 355K to pay for their total catch thru May 15.

If Keith is right about a 3K average per day for the remaining days of counting, that buys us another 25K on top of my 316K projection the other day.

316 plus 25 = 341K.

We may just barely come out of this smelling like rose.... BARELY.

http://www.fpc.org/currentdaily/HistFishTwo_7day-ytd_Adults.htm



FPC is now counting them as Summers

Here they come................. Summer kings are starting to make the push!

Keith

I just keep telling my self escapements and whatever they want to call them is A OK with me.

254.7K past the dam thru 6/3.

12 days of counts left, now averaging 3K a day due to the added influx of summers (as per Kieth's astute prediction) makes another 36K.

Add 32 K for NON-treaty take below Bonne

Add 5K treaty take below Bonne

That makes 327.7K before sea lion predation.

Add 5% taken by the furbags and we're at 344K

Looks like on paper, the managers make it by the skin of their teeth.

Furbags 5%? Your being way to kind Doc..

2% has been today's standard.

I could believe that! 2% a day sounds about right.

Final Bonne count on June 15.... 277.4K

Plus 32K non-treaty take below Bonne.... 309.4K

Plus 5K treaty take below Bonne.... 314.4K

Plus 5% furbag take below Bonne.... 329.7K to the CR mouth.

About 30% short of pre-season forecast.

Tribes and sporties have now officially overfished their impacts.

The prediction was for the number entering the CR, so factor in 70K from the Willamette.
So all in all a very good season, when you compare it to what we had 15 years ago, which was no season at all.

The Willamette numbers were never part of the original upriver spring chinook forecast. Neither are any of the other LCR tribs. That's why they are NOT included in my analysis.

The only piece up for debate is the furbag interceptions. I used 5% because that's what the managers estimated it has been in the past few years. Could be more or less... probably LOTS more.
__________________

Not even a little.

Fish on...

Todd