This is not rocket science, but the math that some use to somehow end up at the conclusion that the commercials catch more and so do we are either incredibly ignorant about how LCR seasons work, or are willfully sticking their head in the sand just waiting for another "victory" to put on the list, no matter how un-victorious it turns out to be.
Allow this red-necked Ornamental $25 expert to give it a whirl.
Surplus hatchery spring chinook beyond brood needs can be placed in to 4 piles.
1) Currently the smallest pile is the white gillnet pile. Why? Because ESA caps their wild impact at 1% and their crappy method of "selective" fishing burns those impacts faster than the rec fleet.
2) The next biggest pile of fish is the sport pile. It's 3-4 times bigger than the white gillnetter's pile because our version of "selective" fishing burns thru our 1% impact 3-4 times slower than the other crappy version of "selective" fishing.
3) The next biggest pile is the tribal pile. It's certainly bigger than either of the other two piles, but not quite as big as the other two piles combined. Why? Because even though their crappy version of fishing is totally NON-selective and they burn thru impact as fast as they can catch a wild springer, they are allocated so much more impact that this pile is pretty dam big.
4) But DWARFING all three of those piles is this mountain of hatchery springers that go unharvested. Why? Because the cap on ESA impact does not give any of the three user groups exploiting spring chinook adequate access to those unharvested fish. Collectively, their chosen methods simply burn thru the aggregate allowable impact before they can catch all of those surplus springers that end up in the unharvested pile.
And there's one more kink that needs to be considered. There's a silly little rule that says that the aggregate of Pile 1 and Pile 2 in total CANNOT exceed roughly 1.2 times the size of Pile 3 (assuming a mark rate of 5:1).
Bottom line, these constraints of ESA impact and tribal catch-sharing work in concert to prevent the harvest of spring chinook from being a zero-sum game. Until our native brothers adopt selective methods, Pile 4 will ALWAYS be the biggest pile. And as long as that is the case, the opportunity to maximize the size of Pile 2 to its full potential is ensured..... no if's and's or but's.
So while better and more selective commercial methods will help to increase the size of Pile 1, it does NOTHING to directly affect the size of Pile 2. Those fish would simply be re-allocated from that ginormous reserve in Pile 4.
But let's not forget a very important caveat in re-distributing these piles. The increment by which Pile 1 would be allowed to increase is SEVERELY limited by that silly little rule I mentioned above. And I do mean SEVERELY.
And it shall remain that way until the tribes find a way to burn their impacts a little slower in order to increase the size of Pile 3. I guess that's a remote possibility right now, but I'm not gonna hold my breath waiting. Besides I'll be too busy harvesting my fair share of Pile 2.
So despite all the guys threatened by the spectre of the boogieman, the sport impact allocation and the access it provides to harvesting recreationally-caught springers is more than safe for the forseeable future.
Trust me.... I'm a $25 expert.
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