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#741410 - 02/17/12 05:49 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
wntrrn Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 01/13/03
Posts: 2562
Loc: Edmonds
Originally Posted By: stam
So, I guess there really is more to fishing than just a fish pole and a worm.

Sounds like this is a case of how thing pencil out against how things actually play out... not that it matters, but.. I'm going to stay in the "if it's fixed don't break it" camp.

Anybody want to take bets on the Bogi broodstock program ever getting up and running? I'm betting against it.


It will get up and running. Since the Bogi has very, very few returning early wild fish, they will start to harvest later returning fish. While they do that, the tribes will continue netting heavily on the Quil just below the Sol Duc confluence intercepting the hatchery fish returning to the Bogi. This will mean a substantial influence on the early wild 'Duc fish. No big deal, 'cause then they'll just net later in the season below the 'Duc trying to "remove" these broodstock/bananas from the Bogi (without substantiated monitoring) which will remove more of the later returning wild fish from the entire system.

Seems reasonable to me. In the past 15 years fishing the 'Duc, it does seem the early run has improved. Not to mention, people on the water almost every day have logged an improvement also. How can certain guides catch 70 Sniders a year, yet the tribes only report 30+? And, with those 70 Sniders are hundreds of wild fish caught by sportfishers by a single guide alone? Why would a "Native Steelhead Fishing Pro" even bother fishing such a diluted strain of fish as those on the 'Duc?

Ya, I know, the science says it can't be so. I'll take the information from people who are on the water almost every day as opposed to those who think they have the "science" to squelch all other voices.
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#741446 - 02/17/12 08:24 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13449
MPM,

With few exceptions, hatchery fish have significantly lower reproductive efficiency in the natural environment. Based on data, that is an empirical fact. You decide if that's equivalent to gospel to you. After that, it's just math. If a Snider broodstock fish retains 0.85 (a realistic value) of a NOR wild fish, which is equal to 1.0, it is impossible for 0.85 x 1.0 = 1.0, which is what you get when two wild fish mate (1.0 x 1.0 = 1.0).

Coley,

The anecdotal data seem positive, but since I can't separate the emotional or visceral reports from the objective I can't make an accurate or probably even a useful conclusion. However it's entirely possible that January NORs (natural origin recruits) have increased due to the Snider program. I'd venture that it's between "more likely than not" to "far more likely than not." But that doesn't tell me what, if anything, has happened with overall basin productivity. My understanding is that the Duc is consistently "fully seeded" with spawners. If that is true, then the most the Snider program can do is restore some population diversity in terms of return timing that had likely been reduced due to high harvest pressure on Dec.-Jan. hatchery steelhead.

Juvenile steelhead can and do distribute and re-distribute widely within a watershed. I don't know of any evidence indicating that a habitat niche was lying vacant that could only be served by January adult returns. Further, while the average spawn timing of the Jan. adult returns is likely earlier than the average spawn timing of the March returns, it is equally likely that a complete overlap of spawn timing occurs, excepting that March returns cannot spawn before March, while a Jan. return might. Given that overlap, it falls within the "far more likely than not" that most Snider fish that escape the fishery will spawn with a wild fish, thereby reducing the reproductive efficiency of the wild fish. So the more Snider fish that survive to spawn, the greater the negative effect of the Snider program on the wild population as expressed by basin productivity.

The only way that I can think of for the Snider fish to add to system productivity is if the Sol Duc were in a watershed condition like say the Cowlitz, where anadromous fish have been re-introduced upstream of dams after a 40 year absence, or the mid-Columbia tributaries where the wild fish have been nearly extirpated. In those cases the steelhead habitat niche was nearly vacant, so reproduction, even at the lower efficiency of the many hatchery spawners, has been a near term positive benefit. This is where wild broodstock, or hatchery broodstock, programs have their greatest benefit to an ecosystem: in restoration or recovery of severely depressed or extirpated natural populations.

However, as those populations recover with increasing numbers of NORs spawning in the rivers, hatchery fish spawning in those same systems, where they were essential initially for recovery, will become an impediment to any eventual full recovery of wild steelhead populations. This is why I wrote in one of my posts above that wild broodstock programs, or hatchery programs in general, are at their best fit in systems that already have healthy wild populations because the negative impacts will be negligible.

Stam,

The problem seems to be the lack of evidence that the Snider program is either "fixed" or "broken." Does this mean you're happily in the camp of "blissful ignorance?" NTTAWWT.

Sg

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#741516 - 02/17/12 10:50 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Salmo g.]
ParaLeaks Offline
WINNER

Registered: 01/11/03
Posts: 10363
Loc: Olypen
So shall we let the State "break" it so we know for sure?
The best prediction of the future is the past, and the State's past is not exactly a glowing example of "Boy, do we know what we're doing!"

Does it not seem more reasonable to take the brood stock program method elsewhere WITHOUT dismantling the existing one until adequate information exists to KNOW whether or not what exists now WORKS?

When THIS failed experiment crashes, and the Sol Duc becomes another "used to be"....WHO is going to step forward and take the blame? I can tell you......nofknbody, that's who. And the biggest losers of course will be the wild fish, whose health is entrusted to the State.

Scrapping the Snyder Project is premature, to say the least.
_________________________
Agendas kill truth.
If it's a crop, plant it.




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#741536 - 02/18/12 12:01 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ParaLeaks]
Todd Offline
Dick Nipples

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27838
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
For the fourth or fifth time, the Snider program is not being moved because it works or doesn't work...that question never even entered the equation.

The State is following the HSRG requirements, as they said they would...and part of the requirements calls for a Wild Steelhead Management Zone stream in each watershed, one that has zero hatchery steelhead.

For the Quillayute system the Sol Duc is the logical choice since it gets a very few Skamania fish, and the Snider fish.

Would you prefer they designate the Bogachiel as the WSMZ for the Quillayute system and discontinue all hatchery steelhead plants there?

Fish on...

Todd
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#741541 - 02/18/12 12:05 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Todd]
RUNnGUN Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 1394
In Parker's Perfect World, Snider is shut down along with any future broodstocking program on the OP, tribal gill netting is shutdown and replaced with traps, weirs or other fishing methods that will select for hatchery/wild fish, mandatory C&R on all wild steelhead state wide, and guides are restricted by a limited entry, as well as highly regulated 40 hours max on the water per week. Just to be fair on all side, fishing from a boat is prohibited on all OP rivers.

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#741556 - 02/18/12 12:51 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Todd]
Bob Offline

Dazed and Confused

Registered: 03/05/99
Posts: 6367
Loc: Forks, WA & Soldotna, AK
Originally Posted By: Todd
For the fourth or fifth time, the Snider program is not being moved because it works or doesn't work...that question never even entered the equation.

The State is following the HSRG requirements, as they said they would...and part of the requirements calls for a Wild Steelhead Management Zone stream in each watershed, one that has zero hatchery steelhead.

For the Quillayute system the Sol Duc is the logical choice since it gets a very few Skamania fish, and the Snider fish.

Would you prefer they designate the Bogachiel as the WSMZ for the Quillayute system and discontinue all hatchery steelhead plants there?

Fish on...

Todd


Don't believe it's per watershed Todd, it's per ESU ... which is why the Clearwater was option #2. Now, what to do with the hundreds of Chambers fish that make it into the Duc every year, a good number of them are now harvested by anglers chasing Sniders and wild, without that effort, a far greater percentage of them will now attempt to cross with wild fish in there ... doesn't sound like the management zone will end up with the goal in either case, and I'd much rather have the Snider's crossing than the inbred Chambers fish.
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#741561 - 02/18/12 01:17 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Salmo g.]
Bob Offline

Dazed and Confused

Registered: 03/05/99
Posts: 6367
Loc: Forks, WA & Soldotna, AK
Originally Posted By: Salmo g.
MPM,

With few exceptions, hatchery fish have significantly lower reproductive efficiency in the natural environment. Based on data, that is an empirical fact. You decide if that's equivalent to gospel to you. After that, it's just math. If a Snider broodstock fish retains 0.85 (a realistic value) of a NOR wild fish, which is equal to 1.0, it is impossible for 0.85 x 1.0 = 1.0, which is what you get when two wild fish mate (1.0 x 1.0 = 1.0).

Coley,

The anecdotal data seem positive, but since I can't separate the emotional or visceral reports from the objective I can't make an accurate or probably even a useful conclusion. However it's entirely possible that January NORs (natural origin recruits) have increased due to the Snider program. I'd venture that it's between "more likely than not" to "far more likely than not." But that doesn't tell me what, if anything, has happened with overall basin productivity. My understanding is that the Duc is consistently "fully seeded" with spawners. If that is true, then the most the Snider program can do is restore some population diversity in terms of return timing that had likely been reduced due to high harvest pressure on Dec.-Jan. hatchery steelhead.

Juvenile steelhead can and do distribute and re-distribute widely within a watershed. I don't know of any evidence indicating that a habitat niche was lying vacant that could only be served by January adult returns. Further, while the average spawn timing of the Jan. adult returns is likely earlier than the average spawn timing of the March returns, it is equally likely that a complete overlap of spawn timing occurs, excepting that March returns cannot spawn before March, while a Jan. return might. Given that overlap, it falls within the "far more likely than not" that most Snider fish that escape the fishery will spawn with a wild fish, thereby reducing the reproductive efficiency of the wild fish. So the more Snider fish that survive to spawn, the greater the negative effect of the Snider program on the wild population as expressed by basin productivity.

The only way that I can think of for the Snider fish to add to system productivity is if the Sol Duc were in a watershed condition like say the Cowlitz, where anadromous fish have been re-introduced upstream of dams after a 40 year absence, or the mid-Columbia tributaries where the wild fish have been nearly extirpated. In those cases the steelhead habitat niche was nearly vacant, so reproduction, even at the lower efficiency of the many hatchery spawners, has been a near term positive benefit. This is where wild broodstock, or hatchery broodstock, programs have their greatest benefit to an ecosystem: in restoration or recovery of severely depressed or extirpated natural populations.

However, as those populations recover with increasing numbers of NORs spawning in the rivers, hatchery fish spawning in those same systems, where they were essential initially for recovery, will become an impediment to any eventual full recovery of wild steelhead populations. This is why I wrote in one of my posts above that wild broodstock programs, or hatchery programs in general, are at their best fit in systems that already have healthy wild populations because the negative impacts will be negligible.

Stam,

The problem seems to be the lack of evidence that the Snider program is either "fixed" or "broken." Does this mean you're happily in the camp of "blissful ignorance?" NTTAWWT.

Sg


Two points here I want to touch on, the first since we're being so sold on what science is out there is that the same studies that show the reproductive fitness drop in even gen1 of broodstocked fish ... went on to show that as these fish later crossed with wilds, that the productivity bumped back up, and further more with each successive generation.

Since none of the managers even truly considered that fish spawn before March 1 for so many years ... there is little known about fish spawning before that date, and it clearly a significant portion of the population. Although the vast majority of these early fish are upriver spawners ... I did count three new redds in the lower river today.

The second major point is the assumption that the 'Duc is fully seeded. If this was indeed the case, one would expect the competition from Snider smolts to have a negative impact on their wild counterparts. Once again ... back to hard data and science here: the largest returns of Sol Duc wild fish date back to brood years of some of the largest Snider plants, and I don't recall if it was the very biggest return in the last 25 years or the top 2 / 3 that in addition to the std. Snider smolt plant, there was an additional 122+k fry plant into the Sol Duc. So, if the natural spawn is fully seeding ... then why did we not see a drop off in response to the largest-ever stockings?
_________________________
Seen ... on a drive to Stam's house:



"You CANNOT fix stupid!"

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#741578 - 02/18/12 02:59 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Fish-Culture]
superfly Offline
The Renegade White Man

Registered: 02/16/00
Posts: 2349
Loc: The Coast or the Keys !!!
Bob,

We can help if you want to keep the program rolling............hit me up !
Call me back !

Or go to the CAA website , check it out and see if you want to be a part of it.......

Peace
Fly
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#741584 - 02/18/12 11:31 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: superfly]
Lucky Louie Offline
Carcass

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 2267
It has been twenty years and still counting in several Hood Canal rivers that planting hatchery fish stopped and there are no more fish coming back now than twenty years ago.

Idealistically having wild only areas doesn’t equate necessarily to more fish just a principle that some think sound.

If this experiment doesn’t work in the OP with the proportion of wild returns, it shouldn't work anywhere.
_________________________
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No you can’t have my rights---I’m still using them





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#741587 - 02/18/12 11:38 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Todd]
The Moderator Offline
The Chosen One

Registered: 02/09/00
Posts: 13942
Loc: Tuleville
Originally Posted By: Todd
My degree says "Bachelor of Science in Marine Biology


Huh. Since you love politics and got a law-talkin-type degree, I had you pegged for a poly sci major! laugh

Marine Biology? Isn't that the "degree" that all hot high school chicks say they want to become after they visit the dolphins at SeaWorld? wink

So, how many hot chicks were in the program??? laugh

Not that it matters, but my piece of paper does say Bachelor of Science of Fishery Sciences, UW. I did the fish thing. I studied fish, I played with fish, I smelled like fish....and there were no hot chicks or dophins! laugh

I would not call either of us "scientists". wink Fun thread through.

PS. I'm still booting those damn Canadians off of the OP rivers!!!

laugh
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#741591 - 02/18/12 11:49 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
The Moderator Offline
The Chosen One

Registered: 02/09/00
Posts: 13942
Loc: Tuleville
It really can only get better if CCA were involved.

laugh
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#741627 - 02/18/12 03:32 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13449
Now that we've devolved to bashing one another's credentials and credibility, entertaining as that is, I'm losing my train of thought. Let's see, Parker says no Canadians. CCA says it's all the fault of non-treaty gillnet harvest on the Sol Duc. Hmmm, Gary Loomis may not help much on this one.

Bob,

Both your points are good ones and relevant to the discussion. Because the broodstock program uses creates no more than an F1 hatchery generation, the progeny of those fish recover "wild" productivity rapidly. If not in one generation, then certainly within two. That has to be the case in order for re-introduction programs like Cowlitz and Lewis and recovery of the mid-C tributaries to succeed. Those are long term hatchery broodstocks, and unlike the Snider (or is it Snyder? I'm seeing both spellings) fish that I somewhat arbitrarily assigned an 0.85 value, the Cowlitz and mid-C hatchery fish may have something more like a 0.15 value. Consequently it takes a lot of generations to regain productivity approximating that of "normal" wild fish. The Snider fish do far less harm in crosses with wild fish than Chambers fish do. The limited data show Chambers fish taking wild productivity to statistically no different than zero. The effect of a Snider cross is small enough that it's more readily measured by "pushing numbers around on my desk," as Stam says than by measuring it in the field. Normal variability in productivity is likely consistently greater than the marginal decrease in productivity caused by a Snider cross.

Regarding the effect of Snider crosses in the case of the Sol Duc being fully seeded or not, that is probably equally difficult to measure, using production as the yardstick. You know that natural variation in productivity results in some low escapements resulting in high production and sometimes high escapements result in low production, the effects of density dependent mortality notwithstanding.

But take this all with a grain of salt from a biologist whom Stam labels as overpaid to fail. Oh, and with an agenda. I think I've been very clear over the years that my agenda is better information for all of us in the confidence that collectively, including Stam, we'll make better decisions over the long haul.

Sg

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#741721 - 02/18/12 11:03 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
The Moderator Offline
The Chosen One

Registered: 02/09/00
Posts: 13942
Loc: Tuleville
Originally Posted By: Kanektok Kid


I had you figured for animal husbandry ...............


Your pick up lines won't work on me!
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#741947 - 02/20/12 11:36 AM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: The Moderator]
Beezer Offline
Spawner

Registered: 06/09/99
Posts: 838
Loc: Monroe WA
Originally Posted By: parker
I did the fish thing. I studied fish, I played with fish, I smelled like fish....and there were no hot chicks or dophins!



Oh Parker, I'm disappointed......I was sure you'd have been teacher's pet for Marsha Landolt...may she rest in peace.

Beezer


Edited by Beezer (02/20/12 05:02 PM)

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#741967 - 02/20/12 12:35 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Beezer]
milt roe Offline
Spawner

Registered: 01/22/06
Posts: 917
Loc: tacoma



Oh Parker, I'm disappointed......I was sure you'd have been teacher's pet for Marsha Landolt...my she rest in peace.

Beezer[/quote]

Marsha was considered hot back in 1980. Leather skirts. We sat up front on those days. Of course the alternatives were extremely limited in the Fisheries program.

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#741969 - 02/20/12 12:37 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: ]
Bigjim Offline
will always be a Juvenile at Sea

Registered: 11/15/06
Posts: 677
I'm down, nothing wrong with a bunch of dudes standing in line [Bleeeeep!] naked. That's like jail and gangbangs. Don't really miss either of those activities.

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#741983 - 02/20/12 01:48 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Bigjim]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13449
Wow, now a nostalgia trip. I still have some of my notes from Marsha's fish disease class.

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#741990 - 02/20/12 02:18 PM Re: WDFW NEWS RELEASE snider creek [Re: Salmo g.]
OncyT Offline
Spawner

Registered: 02/06/08
Posts: 510
Don't forget Loveday Conquest (I did not make up that name) for statistics.

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