No go for me......Says "Stream not found"......guess maybe I'll head out and find a river to fish.....

Go Hawks!!!!!!!!

Not sure why the two streams for the recent WFWC public meeting are NOT functioning. Every other video on the recent archive page plays just fine.

http://www.tvw.org/index.php?option=com_tvwsearch&recent

Things that make ya go HMMMMMM.

TVW still does not have the video issue resolved, lord luv a duck!

Also Ron Warren provided the Power Point presentation that Region 6 Fish Program Manager Steve Theisfeld utilized at the November 8th meeting. It is a reasonably descent presentation and if you would like it simply e mail me.

So if you have that and can view the video of the Commission meeting one gets a feel for what the process will look like.

Video up and running...

http://www.tvw.org/index.php?option=com_tvwplayer&eventID=2014110018

Cue up to 9:20 for Thiesfelds briefing/presentation to the commission

1:03:30 for the start of public testimony.

1:29:40 for the Fish Committee's recommendations/guidance

If you watch the video footage I would urge you to listen to the presentation on Open Public Meeting Act requirements. As FTC is about the citizens right to know I regard it as a lynch pin in reforming WDF&W when we get a new director. ( ain't gonna happen with Mr. Anderson ) Anyway the videos volume is a bit bad at the end but really zero in on when the attorney lays out the history AND the key three sentences that the courts have zeroed in on.

The AD HOC Advisor meeting is tonight at the Raymond high school but remember the public can comment at the end but not fully participate. Do not panic the last two meetings are public and it will the non advisers run at it. Also the preliminary option draft has been circulated. I doubt I can C&P it but e mail me & I will forward it.


Nov. 13 - Willapa Bay Ad-Hoc Advisory Committee, from 6-8 p.m.; public input from 8-9 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond

Formatting & color coding left but at least you can get an idea. From Steve Theisfeld:

Hi Everyone,

We have been working hard since the Commission meeting on Saturday to develop some options based on the guidance provided by the commission in order to move forward in our process. We had a conference call with the Commission’s Fish Committee this afternoon and they approved us presenting four draft “straw dog” options to the ad-hoc committee tomorrow. I have attached those to this email.

We would appreciate your consideration of these options and look forward to hearing some feedback from folks tomorrow. We were directed to be open to other options and will also be discussing potential for other options. However, they instructed us to limit the options to 6 total.

If you weren’t able to attend the Commission meeting last Saturday and want to get up to speed, the presentation is here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2014/11/nov0714_11_presentation.pdf; and the video is located here: http://www.tvw.org/index.php?option=com_tvwplayer&eventID=2014110018. Be advised, given the full nature of our agenda, I am not intending to rehash the presentation nor the Commission’s guidance. We really need to roll up our sleeves and work towards solutions.

We also hope to have a very, very, preliminary draft policy to begin chewing on tomorrow. Recall that we hope to have a draft policy for the Commission’s consideration for their December 13th meeting. Pending their approval and suggested modifications, the draft policy would be made available for a 3-week public review process.

Here is a tentative agenda for tomorrow night.

Welcome and Introduction
Review Ground Rules
Review Options Document
Comments and Feedback
Other potential Options
Review Preliminary Draft Policy.

I look forward to a productive meeting tomorrow.

Cheers

Steve Thiesfeld


Willapa Bay Salmon Management Policy - Options
Draft November 12, 2014

Aspirational Objectives
The aspirational objectives describe the suite of outcomes that we will strive to achieve through the development of the policy. They are intended to inspire the development of innovative strategies and promote the assessment of trade-offs between options. They are not entitlements, and it may not be feasible to simultaneously achieve all of the aspirational objectives.

Conservation
Chinook – Alternative 1
Spawners: Meet Naselle and North spawner goals in 10 years Broodstock Management: Meet watershed-specific HSRG standards in 10 years

Chinook – Alternative 2
Spawners: Meet Willapa and North spawner goals in 10 years Broodstock Management: Meet watershed-specific HSRG standards in 10 years

Coho
Spawners: Meet Willapa Bay aggregate goal Broodstock Management: Meet watershed-specific HSRG standards

Chum
Spawners: Meet Willapa Bay aggregate goal in 2017 Broodstock Management: Meet watershed-specific HSRG standards

Recreational Fisheries
25% increase in catch within 5 years relative to 2009-2013 average

Commercial Fisheries
$900,000 average ex-vessel value


Strategies
The strategies describe alternative fishery and hatchery management options. They will be compared to current management (referred to as the Base) with respect to achieving the aspirational objectives.

In the following options, the “A” and “B” sub-options are identical except that the “A” series always has the Naselle and North as Primary Chinook populations and the “B” series always has the Willapa and North as Primary Chinook populations.


Synopsis:

• Current hatchery production
• Time and area priorities per guidance
• Commercial fisheries begin 9/15
• Commercial limited to only 2 days per week in 2T and 2U beginning 9/15
• No directed commercial chum fisheries until spawner goal achieved



Policy Component Proposal
Species Priority • Chinook: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14.
• Coho, Chum: Commercial priority.
Area Priority • Areas 2T, 2U: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14; maximum of 2 commercial fishing days/week in remainder of season.
• Areas 2M, 2N, 2R & 2P: Commercial fisheries after Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
Chinook Primary Populations Naselle River & North River(current)
Hatchery Production Hatchery Chinook Coho Chum
Forks 3.2M 0.3M 0.3M
Nemah 3.3M - 0.3M
Naselle 0.5M 1.4M 0.3M
Chum Streamside Incubation Boxes 200,000 (current)
Chum Fishery Management No commercial fisheries Oct. 15-31 until spawner goal achieved


Synopsis: Differences from Option 1A are highlighted in red.

• Shift primary Chinook designation from Naselle River to Willapa River
• Shift Chinook production from Forks Creek Hatchery to Naselle Hatchery
• Time and area priorities per guidance
• Commercial fisheries begin 9/15
• Commercial limited to only 2 days per week in 2T and 2U beginning 9/15
• No directed commercial chum fisheries until spawner goal achieved



Policy Component Proposal
Species Priority • Chinook: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14.
• Coho, Chum: Commercial priority.
Area Priority • Areas 2T, 2U: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14; maximum of 2 commercial fishing days/week in remainder of season.
• Areas 2M, 2N, 2R & 2P: Commercial fisheries after Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
Chinook Primary Populations Willapa River & North River
Hatchery Production Hatchery Chinook Coho Chum
Forks 0.4M 0.3M 0.3M
Nemah 3.3M - 0.3M
Naselle 3.3M 1.4M 0.3M
Chum Streamside Incubation Boxes 200,000 (current)
Chum Fishery Management No commercial fisheries Oct. 15-31 until spawner goal achieved


Synopsis: Differences from Option 1A are highlighted in red.

• Decreased Chinook production at Nemah, increase Chum and coho
• Increased streamside incubation boxes for chum
• Time and area priorities per guidance
• Commercial fisheries begin after Labor Day in 2M and 2N only, limited to 3 days per week between Labor Day and 9/14
• Commercial fisheries begin 9/15 in remaining areas
• Commercial limited to only 3 days per week in 2T and 2U beginning 9/15
• No directed commercial chum fisheries until goal achieved, except 2M and 2N beginning 2018



Policy Component Proposal
Species Priority • Chinook: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Labor Day weekend.
• Coho, Chum: Commercial priority
Area Priority • Area 2T, 2U: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14. Maximum of 3 commercial fishing days/week in remainder of season.
• Areas 2M & 2N commercial priority with maximum of 3 commercial fishing days/week after Labor Day weekend through Sept. 14. After Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
• Areas 2P & 2R: Commercial fisheries after Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
Chinook Primary Populations Naselle River & North River
Hatchery Production Hatchery Chinook Coho Chum
Forks 3.2M 0.3M 0.3M
Nemah 0.5M 0.4M 3.0M
Naselle 0.5M 1.4M 0.3M
Chum Streamside Incubation Boxes 400,000 (twice current level)
Chum Fishery Management • Areas 2T, 2U, 2R, 2P – no commercial fisheries Oct. 15-31 until spawner goal achieved
• Areas 2M, 2N – commercial fisheries directed at returning Nemah Hatchery adult return no earlier than 2018.


Synopsis: Differences from Option 1A are highlighted in red.

• Shift primary Chinook designation from Naselle River to Willapa River
• Shift Chinook production from Forks Creek Hatchery to Naselle Hatchery
• Decreased Chinook production at Nemah, increase Chum and coho
• Increased streamside incubation boxes for chum
• Time and area priorities per guidance
• Commercial fisheries begin after Labor Day in 2M and 2N only, limited to 3 days per week between Labor Day and 9/14
• Commercial fisheries begin 9/15 in remaining areas
• Commercial limited to only 3 days per week in 2T and 2U beginning 9/15
• No directed commercial chum fisheries until goal achieved, except 2M and 2N beginning 2018



Policy Component Proposal
Species Priority • Chinook: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Labor Day weekend.
• Coho, Chum: Commercial priority
Area Priority • Area 2T, 2U: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through Sept. 14. Maximum of 3 commercial fishing days/week in remainder of season.
• Areas 2M & 2N commercial priority with maximum of 3 commercial fishing days /week after Labor Day weekend through Sept. 14. After Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
• Areas 2P & 2R: Commercial fisheries after Sept. 14 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
Chinook Primary Populations Willapa River & North River
Hatchery Production Hatchery Chinook Coho Chum
Forks 0.4M 0.3M 0.3M
Nemah 0.5M 0.4M 3.0M
Naselle 3.3M 1.4M 0.3M
Chum Streamside Incubation Boxes 400,000 (twice current level)
Chum Fishery Management • Areas 2T, 2U, 2R, 2P – no commercial fisheries Oct. 15-31 until spawner goal achieved
• Areas 2M, 2N – commercial fisheries directed at returning Nemah Hatchery adult return no earlier than 2018

Well last nights Willapa Adviser AD HOC meeting went ............. well it went. Commercials were having substantial difficulties in getting their arms around the direction set at Saturday's Commission meeting & HSRG guidelines. On the Rec said I would say most but not all had the same difficulty just different points to object to. From the public view I watched a group folks that were serving as Advisers in this process struggle to comprehend what was happening. I take that back they had and idea what was happening just little understanding of why. Hell there were more members in the public section that have made the meetings and went to the Commission meeting that had a better grip on direction than the AD HOC!

One last thing and this is a heads up to Willapa fishers ( fresh & marine / local & Traveling Wilburys ) and the need to pay attention. In the future all fisheries are going to be governed by Natural Origin Spawners ( NOS ) so pay attention. Commercial / Rec marine / Rec freshwater will rapidly eat up any impacts available. There are not enough to go around and this is going to get mean. So Rec guys realize there needs to be a process that insures that either marine or fresh water do not take a inappropriate share of the impacts. Hell it started last night when one adviser did not think a break out was necessary. Now he fished the marine but believe me I know fresh water locals who are pretty much bent on similar approaches. So Rec get your bloody house in order and DO NOT start down the road of one Rec screwing the other Rec, you will ALL loose in that one.

So here are my notes and remember they are my notes from my perspective.


November 13, 20124 AD HOC Adviser Meeting

Steve Theisfeld ( ST ) opened the meeting.
Introductions around the room and ground rules.

*Right out of the door things got side tracked by a Commercial bitching about not being notified on a Grays Harbor season day.
*ST outlined Commission guidance and process.
*ST outlined that the Commission outlined the "straw dog " options.
*ST outlined direction and HSRG reform.
*Commercial questions on why concerns on North River Chinook.
*Questions on changing from Naselle to Willapa as the primary stream. ( in options )
*Discussion on "aggregate " of stocks for escapement.
*Commercials oppose September 15 exclusion in 2T & U or Chinook priority for Rec fishers and DOWN Hill as we went into a MAJOR bitch session. Ron Warren ( RW ) drawn into it also.
*ST declares meeting break. Several Commercials clearing the moon in one giant leap.
* Look at alternate gear / agency would like new ideas.
*Again Commercial objections to the September 15 lock out 2T and need to change the fish returning run timing.
*Again Commercial opposition to options.
*Commercial wanted to use this year's season as a option.
*Rec's limited on catch by WDF&W rules that reduce fishing productivity. Deck is stacked.
*ST back to options and what can be done to improve fresh water opportunity.
*Streamline process on options.
*Requested to look at starting fish trap but no response from WDF&W.
*Rec gave up 60% of fishable area on Naselle to save Chinook. How's that working?
*Hatchery / wild no need to separate utilize hatchery fish to make wild escapement.
*ST Commission said YOU WILL implement HSRG.
*Lot of discussion on moving Chinook production and managing broodstock.
*Why do we spawn runts?
* Does WDF&W guarantee increased production?
* Disagree with all options.
*Want seven days a week commercial fisheries.
*Commercials days in options must be consecutive. Reduce U back to South Bend boat launch.
*Cut back from 6 fishable runs to 2.
*Retain 2T dip in Commercial fishery.
*ST committed to work on additional options.
*Discussion on how to circulate documents within the AD HOC.
*Deliberate thought on what is written down.
*Question, can we make progress this year on expanded Chum eggtake.
*Review Policy draft at home rather than do it line by line at the meeting.
*ST started through the draft Commission Guidelines line by line.
*Commercial request to redefine 2T and adjoining boundaries. Pretty much a request to do some serious " gerrymandering "
*Add to guidelines / options Rec marine and fresh water harvest split similar to Grays Harbor.

PUBLIC INPUT:
*Objections to focusing on harvest and hatchery production rather than natural spawners.
*Supportive of year end review of WDF&W Region 6 staff.
*Copies of the new Commission Guidelines & Options electronically and a contact person so public can put in input prior to staff having its mind made. Clearly stated this is a public process and if necessary a PDR will be dropped to insure transparency. No back room deals.
*Opposed to utilizing hatchery fish to make escapement. Need to concentrate on selective fisheries to catch fish.
*Gillnet release mortality way to high.
*Back to the past and NOF and Commercial buy back. 48% interception rate exceeds Magnuson Act guidelines.
* I got the Grays Harbor notification and I am not a Commercial so you need to check your e mail.
*Again back to the Grays Harbor one day addition to season. Commercials still stuck on no notification. ST " I sent it out by e mail"

If all Willapa fishing is going to be governed by NOS, I think making the best of the situation, with the understanding that WDFW is under the gun for more budget reductions, then the best alternative going forward is to close the Nemah and Naselle hatcheries, leaving Forks (Willapa) as the sole source of hatchery production in Willapa Bay. This basically eliminates future gillnetting in WB, and the recreational fishery would ride on the fortunes of NOS. WB would likely shift to more of a coho fishery than chinook for sport fishing, but it could be HSRG compliant, with more recreational salmon catch that at present, or maybe not if it's all mark selective fishing.

Sg

OK I was finally able to get the new Commission Policy Draft for Willapa into a format that I can C&P. So here you go.




FISH AND WILDLIFE COMMISSION
POLICY DECISION


POLICY TITLE: Willapa Bay Salmon Management POLICY NUMBER: C-

Cancels or Effective Date: March 1, 2014
Supersedes: NA Termination Date: December 31, 2023

See Also: Policies C-3608, C-3619 Approved _________________[date]
by: _______________________Chair
Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission


Purpose
The objective of this policy is to advance the conservation and restoration of wild salmon in Willapa Bay. Where consistent with this conservation objective, the policy also seeks to maintain or enhance the economic well-being and stability of the fishing industry in the state, provide the public with outdoor recreational experiences and a fair distribution of fishing opportunities throughout the Willapa Bay Basin, and improve the technical rigor of fishery management. Enhanced transparency and information sharing are needed to restore and maintain public trust and support for management of Willapa Bay salmon fisheries.

Definition and Intent
This policy sets a general management direction and provides guidance for Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (Department) management of all Pacific salmon returning to the Willapa Bay Basin. The Willapa Bay Basin is defined as Willapa Bay and its freshwater tributaries.

General Policy Statement
This policy provides a cohesive set of principles and guidance to promote the conservation of wild salmon and steelhead and improve the Department’s management of salmon in the Willapa Bay Basin. The Fish and Wildlife Commission (Commission) recognizes that management decisions must be informed by fishery monitoring (biological and economic), and that innovation and adaptive management will be necessary to achieve the stated purpose of this policy. By improving communication, information sharing, and transparency, the Department shall promote improved public support for management of Willapa Bay salmon fisheries.

State commercial and recreational fisheries will need to increasingly focus on the harvest of abundant hatchery fish. Mark-selective fisheries are a tool that permits the harvest of abundant hatchery fish while reducing impacts on wild stocks needing protection. As a general policy, the Department shall implement mark-selective salmon fisheries, unless the wild populations substantially affected by the fishery are meeting spawner (e.g., escapement goal) and broodstock management objectives. In addition, the Department may consider other management approaches provided they are as or more effective than a mark-selective fishery in achieving spawner and broodstock management objectives.

Fishery and hatchery management measures should be implemented as part of an “all-H” strategy that integrates hatchery, harvest, and habitat systems. Although the policy focuses on fishery management, this policy in no way diminishes the significance of habitat protection and restoration.

Guiding Principles
The Department will apply the following principles in the management of salmon in the Willapa Bay Basin:

1) Promote the conservation and restoration of salmon and steelhead by working with our partners (including Regional Fishery Enhancement Groups and Lead Entities) to protect and restore habitat productivity, implementing hatchery reform (see Policy C-3619), and managing fisheries consistent with conservation objectives.

2) The Department will work through the Pacific Salmon Commission to promote the conservation of Willapa Bay salmon and, in a manner consistent with the provisions of the Pacific Salmon Treaty, pursue the implementation of fishery management actions necessary to achieve agreed conservation objectives.

3) Within the Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) process, the Department will support management measures that promote the attainment of Willapa Bay conservation objectives consistent with the Council’s Salmon Fishery Management Plan.

4) In a manner consistent with conservation objectives, seek to enhance the overall economic well-being and stability of Willapa Bay Basin fisheries.

5) In a manner consistent with conservation objectives, fishing opportunities will be fairly distributed across fishing areas and reflect the diverse interests of WDFW-managed fishers.

6) Monitoring, sampling, and enforcement programs will adequately account for species and population impacts (landed catch and incidental fishing mortality) of all recreational and WDFW-managed commercial fisheries and ensure compliance with state regulations.

7) If it becomes apparent that a scheduled fishery will exceed its preseason catch expectation, and the overage will put at risk the attainment of conservation objectives, the Department shall implement in-season management actions that are projected to enhance the effectiveness of fishery management relative to the attainment of the conservation objectives and impact sharing in the preseason fishery plan.

8) Salmon management will be well documented, transparent, well-communicated, and accountable. The Department shall strive to make ongoing improvements in the transparency of fishery management and for effective public involvement. These shall include: a) clearly describing management objectives in a document available to the public prior to the initiation of the preseason planning process; b) enhancing opportunities for public engagement during the preseason fishery planning process; c) communicating in-season information and management actions to advisors and the public; and d) striving to improve communication with the public regarding co-management issues that are under discussion.

9) The Department shall seek to improve fishery management and technical tools through improved fishery monitoring, the development of new tools, and rigorous assessment of fishery models and parameters.

10) When a mark-selective fishery occurs, the mark-selective fishery shall be implemented, monitored, and enforced in a manner designed to achieve the anticipated conservation benefits.

11) Areas 2T and 2U shall be managed for recreational priority. Commercial fisheries shall not begin until September 15
a. Alternative A. Commercial fisheries limited to one 48-consecutive hour period per week.
b. Alternative B. Commercial fisheries limited to one 72-consecutive hour period per week.



Fishery and Species-Specific Guidance
Subject to the provisions of the Adaptive Management section, the following fishery-and species-specific sections describe the presumptive path for achieving conservation objectives and a fair sharing of harvestable fish.

Fall Chinook Salmon
Subject to the adaptive management provisions of this policy, the Department will manage fall Chinook salmon fisheries and hatchery programs consistent with the Guiding Principles and the following objectives:

1) The fishery management objectives for fall Chinook salmon, in priority order, are to:

a. achieve spawner goals for natural-origin Chinook and hatchery reform broodstock objectives (see bullet 2);
b. provide meaningful recreational fishing opportunities; and
c. limit commercial fishery impacts to the incidental harvest of fall Chinook during fisheries directed at other species.

2) Fisheries will be managed with the intent of

Alternative A: achieving spawner goals for natural-origin Chinook in the Naselle and North rivers and watershed-specific broodstock management objectives within 10 years.

Alternative B: achieving spawner goals for natural-origin Chinook in the Willapa and North rivers and watershed-specific broodstock management objectives within 10 years.

In no case, shall fishery impacts in the Willapa Bay Basin result in an impact of more than {X%} of the return from the Naselle and North (or Willapa and North) rivers when the natural-origin adult return exceeds the spawner goal by less than 10%.

3) Commercial fisheries in the Willapa Bay Basin during the Chinook salmon management period (prior to September 15)

Alternative A: will not occur.

Alternative B: will not occur except 2M and 2N may open after Labor Day weekend, and limited to one 72-consecutive hour period per week.

Coho Salmon
Subject to the adaptive management provisions of this policy, the Department will manage coho salmon fisheries and hatchery programs consistent with the Guiding Principles and the following objectives:

1) The fishery management objectives for coho salmon, in priority order, are to:

a. achieve the aggregate spawner goal for natural-origin coho and hatchery reform broodstock objectives (see bullet 2);
b. prioritize commercial fishing opportunities during the coho fishery management period (Sept. 15 through Oct. 14).

2) Fisheries will be managed with the intent of achieving the aggregate spawner goal for Willapa Bay natural-origin coho salmon. When the pre-season forecast of natural-origin adult coho is less than the aggregate goal, or less than 10% higher than the aggregate goal fisheries in the Willapa Bay Basin will be scheduled to result in an impact of no more than 10% of the adult return.

3) Hatchery programs and fisheries will be managed to achieve watershed-specific broodstock management standards.

Chum Salmon
Subject to the adaptive management provisions of this policy, the Department will manage chum salmon fisheries and hatchery programs consistent with the Guiding Principles and the following objectives:


1) The fishery management objectives for chum salmon, in priority order, are to:

a. achieve the aggregate goal for naturally spawning chum and meet hatchery reform broodstock objectives (see bullets 2 and 3);
b. prioritize commercial fishing opportunities during the chum fishery management period (October 15 through October 31).

2) Fisheries will be managed with the intent of achieving the aggregate goal for Willapa Bay naturally spawning chum salmon. Until the spawner goal is achieved, the maximum fishery impact shall not exceed a 10% harvest rate and no commercial fisheries will occur in the period from October 15-31. If the aggregate goal has been achieved, but the pre-season forecast of adult chum is less than the aggregate goal, or less than 10% higher than the aggregate goal, fisheries in the Willapa Bay Basin will be scheduled to result in an impact of no more than 10% of the adult return.

3) Option associated with increased hatchery chum production: Beginning in 2018, fisheries in the Willapa Bay Basin will result in an impact of no more than Y% of the return, except that commercial fisheries directed at adults returning to the Nemah Hatchery can occur in areas 2M and 2N October 15-31.

Adaptive Management
The Commission recognizes that adaptive management will be essential to achieve the purpose of this policy. Department staff may implement actions to manage adaptively to achieve the objectives of this policy and will coordinate with the Commission, as needed, in order to implement corrective actions. Components of the adaptive management will be shared with the public through the agency web site and will include the following elements:

1) Annual Fishery Management Review. The Department shall annually evaluate fishery management tools and parameters, and identify improvements as necessary to accurately predict fishery performance and escapement.

2) In-season Management. The Department shall develop, evaluate, and implement fishery management models, procedures, and management measures that are projected to enhance the effectiveness of fishery management relative to management based on preseason predictions.

3) Spawner Goals. The Department shall review spawner goals to ensure that they reflect the current productivity of salmon.

Delegation of Authority
The Commission delegates the authority to the Director, through the North of Falcon stakeholder consultation process, to set seasons for recreational and WDFW-managed commercial fisheries in the Willapa Bay Basin, to adopt permanent and emergency regulations to implement these fisheries, and to make harvest agreements with treaty tribes and other governmen

I agree, if those two hatcheries close, the Naselle will become a coho fishery, to a large extent. But the Naselle River chum salmon stocks seem to be thriving, based on the large number of adults that migrate thru in Sept and Oct. And all the chum are wild fish. So if chum salmon can maintain their productivity on the Naselle, my sense is, so can the Chinook since their life history pattern is not that different (in the absence of commercial fishing). I realize that chum are not nearly as valuable as Chinook, so anglers currently do not focus on chum, so the harvest rate is low. But the point is, if the recreational harvest of adult Chinook can be closely regulated, they may be productive enough in the Naselle to have a reasonable recreational fishery, even without the hatcheries. So it might not be just a coho fishery.

But this has nothing to do with fishing the Chehalis Rv, which is the focus of this rather extensive thread.

Back to your regularly scheduled program.....

Since WB is the only place in WA where WDFW does not have to get tribal approval to scratch their *ss why make the Bay an experiment to see just what NOR productivity and capacity are?

Set very conservative total exploitations, including AK and BC, at say 10-20% and let it run. Put the hatchery production into places that are really compromised habitat-wise or where the human population is densest.

Sometime back I was contacted by Lance Fisher of the Northwest Outdoor Show and he expressed a desire to explore the issues surrounding the condition of Grays Harbor and Willapa salmon. Things just interfered then but recently Lance touched bases again and we took the time to talk about the current status of Grays Harbor and Willapa.

Lance is pretty much straight forward and did not shy away from hard the issues. I found it to be a interesting conversation and refreshing in many ways as in the fish world straight forward conversation is more often than not a victim of what is commonly known as being " politically correct. "

So if you care to listen to the conversation the links are at the bottom of his website page accessed by the link below to Lance Fishers's Northwest Outdoor Show.


http://northwestoutdoorshow.com/nw-outdoor-show-november-15-2014/

Many have asked what do I think about the Willapa Management Plan effort underway. Well a bit chaotic is a understatement and additionally so far the public has had little input into the process at this point. I admit it can be, is, and will continue to be confusing to most. WDF&W staff have attempted to get information out ( a lot of it ) but I do not think they fully understood how to make it understandable to the average citizen.

Below is my view of a modified 1B for all to look at and think about / kick the crap out of / use as a starting point.


Highly Modified Option 1B

Synopsis:

• Shift primary Chinook designation from Naselle River to Willapa River
• Shift Chinook production from Forks Creek Hatchery to Naselle Hatchery
• Time and area priorities per guidance
• Commercial fisheries begin 10/1
• Commercial limited to only 2 days per week in 2T and 2U beginning 10/1
• No directed commercial chum fisheries until spawner goal achieved three out of five years. ( beginning 2010)


Policy Component Proposal
Species Priority • Chinook: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through October 1.
• Coho, Chum: Commercial priority.
Area Priority • Areas 2T, 2U: Recreational priority with no commercial fishery through October 1;
• WDFW-managed commercial gillnet fisheries in the aggregate area areas 2T, 2U,2M, 2N, 2R & 2P shall be scheduled, if possible, so that in any given calendar week there are a minimum of five consecutive days when no state-managed commercial fisheries occur.
• Areas 2M, 2N, 2R & 2P: Commercial fisheries after October 1 scheduled to meet conservation objectives.
Chinook Primary Populations Willapa River & North River
Hatchery Production Hatchery Chinook Coho Chum
Forks 0.4M
0.3M 0.3M
Nemah 3.3M - 0.3M
Naselle 3.3M
1.4M 0.3M
Chum Streamside Incubation Boxes 200,000 (current)

Chum Fishery Management No commercial fisheries Oct. 15-31 until spawner goal achieved 2 consecutive years. If the number of natural-origin spawners was less than the goal in 3 out of the last 5 years (beginning in 2010), the Department shall implement the following measures:
a) The predicted fishery impact for Chum in WDFW-managed fisheries in the Willapa Harbor & tributary streams will not exceed 5% of the adult return to Willapa Harbor.





 

About time the state quits breast feeding the commercials.

The A-HA moment is near! This element of the Willapa Management Plan is the least understood but ultimately extremely important. It is not a "silver bullet " but rather a tool that allows you to more less develop a plan around the hatchery / wild / harvest thing. Last meeting of the AD HOC WDFW Staff let all know that Andy Appleby would be at the next meeting to explain the AHA model but it is my understanding that they are running a little late in getting it done with Willapa Data inputted. So here is the abstract and if one wants it just goggle Fishery A-HA or e mail me and I will send it to you.

Abstract.—The All-H Analyzer (AHA model) is a tool that allows salmon managers to simultaneously evaluate the impact that habitat restoration (or degradation), changes in fisheries, or changes in hatchery operation would have on a specific fish population or stock. This paper presents the (idealized) results of how AHA can be used to set a long-term salmon restoration, recovery, and fishery plan. It takes the process from initial goal setting, through exploring how those goals can be evaluated by AHA, and then how they can be accomplished. The results of implementation of various options are evalu­ated with AHA both in terms of “numerical” escapement to the spawning grounds, the amount and direction of gene flow, and the number of fish harvested. In this way, activi­ties can be prioritized, planned, carried out, and evaluated against an expected response. It is also possible to evaluate “what-if” scenarios to better plan multiple activities within a watershed.

The AHA model is an outgrowth of the work of the Hatchery Scientific Review group in Washington, including J. Scott, C. Busack, P. Seidel, L. Mobrand, D. Camp­ton, C. Mahnken, T. Flagg, and T. Evelyn. Special thanks to L. Mobrand who not only developed the actual spreadsheet model, but also constantly refined the model, its outputs, and displays to more clearly develop options and present results.

Tonight is the Willapa Plan AD HOC meeting ( highlighted below ) but remember public input is limited to one hour at the end.

To the question is this all for the AD HOC? I do not know but I guess they could do additional meetings after the next two public meetings.

Could this lock the public out of the process as things come together in the draft Willapa Management Plan? Yes / No In some folks mind that is what they want where a few drive the process out of the public's view. The No is that if WDF&W does that is the public can and will meet them at the Commission and it will be game on as back room crap ain't gonna fly no more no how.

The whole thing is a " dog & pony show " It has evolved to that in many ways but I doubt that was staff's desire it just came out of the chaos of the past meetings.

So participate whatever your view right to the end. It is every citizens right.

• Oct. 25 - WDFW fishery managers will host an open house from 2-5 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Oct. 27 - Willapa Bay Ad-Hoc Advisory Committee, from 6-8 p.m.; public input from 8-9 p.m.; Raymond High School Library, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Nov. 1 - WDFW fishery managers will host a public workshop from 4-7 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Nov. 13 - Willapa Bay Ad-Hoc Advisory Committee, from 6-8 p.m.; public input from 8-9 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Nov. 20 - Willapa Bay Ad-Hoc Advisory Committee, from 6-8 p.m.; public input from 8-9 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Dec. 6 - WDFW fishery managers will host a public workshop from 2-5 p.m.; Raymond High School cafeteria, 1016 Commercial St., Raymond
• Jan. 17 - WDFW fishery managers will host a public workshop from 2-5 p.m.; Raymond Elks Lodge, 326 Third St., Raymond

So how did the meeting of the Willapa AD HOC go? Well it was informative, calm, infuriating and at times misinformation came pouring out. So let us try this. Steve Theisfeld R-6 Fish Program did a update on the process thus far. Then we went right to the AHA model presentation by AA and that was a fairly reasonable Power Point presentation. The model function inputs can be confusing on the best of days even if your familiar with harvest and escapement management.

Then the wheels fell right off the cart. The modeling the spread sheet produces a graph of the projected harvest at the bottom of the spread sheet by user group. So AA started in identifying the rational for this results.

1. Inriver Rec: They don't need many fish to catch just the opportunity. ( boat ride or hike to the river bank ) I bloody well nearly had a stroke right there but waited until public input but what a load of, well something. The inriver struggles due to 90% of the fish being removed by commercial harvest before they get a shot at them. Never mind that gear restrictions ( barbless / single / ect ) are intended to and do limit inriver success for conservation.

2. Marine Rec: They catch more but not that much of a impact: Lord love a duck! The same gear restrictions as in river apply. Also putting the Commercial nets in 2T and sweeping the bay continuously with gillnets guarantees a vastly reduced marine Rec catch.

3. Commercial Gillnets: They really are important as the Recs cannot kill all the harvestable hatchery fish. Now at this one I pretty much went into a state of shock again. Now the reason for the Willapa Management Plan redo is frankly that the Commercial fisheries pretty much darn near wiped out the natural salmon populations across the entire Willapa estuary. I mean killing fish is what management is all about? Whatever happened to the Conservation Based management the Commission is advocating?

4. If you do not kill all the hatchery fish with a commercial gillnet the Willapa hatcheries will look like Bingham. This I asked AA to clarify as I am more than a little familiar with Bingham Hatchery which is located on the East Fork Satsop in the Chehalis Basin. In clarification AA identified the issue as the large numbers of returning fish above the hatchery egg take goal.

Ok let us try this. The Chehalis Basin is managed for Natural Origin Spawners ( NOS ) and this requires a exploitation rate that insures the NOS population have the numbers into escapement after harvest to sustain the NOS populations. All salmon stocks in the Chehalis Basin are integrated stocks which means the hatchery production is genetically the same as the wild or NOS populations. This results in the hatchery returns mirroring the NOS ( wild ) which is way past the 5% or so the hatchery would require if the stocks were segregated. ( AA outlined the Chambers Cr. Steelhead as a easy example of a segregated stock ) which allow wipe out fisheries. The simple fact is the days of wiping out NOS / wild salmon populations is supposed to be in the past. ( at least that is what the Commission has directed ) In addition those hatchery returns are the Rec fishers opportunity. The Recs spend more money chasing the fish trying to catch it with restricted gear than the value of the bloody commercial fishery, period.

So just what on earth was this about? Well this is my opinion but I think the answer revolves around the previous AD HOC and public meetings. So straight talk time. The meetings were contentious, disorganized, and just plain ugly. Right down to a commercial fisher threatening two ( that I know off ) citizens with physical violence outside the meeting room and WDF&W view if they continued to participate in the process. This was addressed by WDF&W and Enforcement was present last night as the agency appeared to be better prepared to deal with the commercial representation.

That was helpful but I think the four points described above came from AA trying to present the AHA model results in such a way that everyone stayed calm. That worked on the commercial side & the majority of the AD HOC but for some of the AD HOC and the citizens setting in the audience it did not appear they buying any of it. Rightly so I might add.

Frankly I have nothing but respect for AA and the others working from the scientific communities to address hatchery reform with HSRG. That AA would even venture in to a Lion's den of a meeting to provide insight to HSRG and the AHA model is admirable. Most certainly when one considers the manner of how the previous meetings were conducted.

So where do we go now? There are two remaining public meetings and I urge all to participate and not be intimidated. Will much be accomplished? I do not know but I doubt it. So what to do? Attend the next two public meetings to educate yourself then participate at the Commission level! When the next draft of the Willapa Management Plan is released for public comment dig in and go after whatever you feel is incorrect in writing right to the Commission.

So you're not comfortable with this? Poor writing skills? Well folks I was born with ADD and struggle to write. ( we are not going to even think about missing words & typos ) Do not allow the lack of writing skills or technical knowledge of fish to take away your rights as a citizen. The Commissioners are descent folk that can and will sort this thing out, of that I am sure. Again do not surrender your rights as a citizen.

I am reminded of the lady who walked up to the microphone in the Grays Harbor hearing before the Commission with her rather large stuffed Sockeye toy with full spawning colors, plopped it down on the table, was polite but let it rip and I mean let it rip! No one has to be a doormat! It is your right to participate.

This link is to the company that is doing the AHA model. I believe it is Dr. Mobrand and Mr. Appleby who are doing the Willapa AHA project. This firm does quality work be it you agree or disagree with the outcome. I will take quality any day. Remember the model is math and the devil is in the details, like getting the agency staff to actually follow the plan as to harvest. That is the one that seldom happens.

So here they are: http://www.djwassociates.com/about-us/staff/

Remember that all models are wrong but some are useful.

AHA is very useful at evaluating options. BUT, after the choice is made one needs to evaluate the results and not simply fly on autopilot.

A good question to ask AA is what is going on with wild Nisqually Chinook as the hatchery releases and in-river rack were outcomes of an AHA exercise. Is it working in the Real World?