Bingham has a weir that stops all fish. When the pond gate is open they swim up a ladder into the holding ponds and when sorting fish wild are put in a hole in the side wall of the pond which is really a tube slide that puts them back into the East Fork Satsop above the weir. Bingham Cr itself has a weir operated by the science division that also stops the fish. Bingham uses both Bingham Cr and East Fork Satsop water so wild would be inclined to return somewhat with out a weir.

ok thanks for the info...

Another aspect about coho is that they try to go as far upstream as possible, regardless (especially) of where they smelted from. The higher up a watershed they spawn, the more smolts are produced. This probably is the case in hatchery fish, too, that will push upstream even passing the hatchery outfall. Wild fish will, also, explore any and all tribs.

Heads up for those still fishing, tomorrow's forecast for the Olympic side tribs is 4.31 inches in 24 hrs at Haywire Ridge with the 10 day at 9.97. The vast majority of the rain will be between Tuesday to Thursday. The lower elevations and upper Chehalis about half the rain of the Olympics is going to get. So bottom line the rivers are about to blow big time.

Now for those of you who fish the rise it looks like the rain will hit late afternoon tomorrow through the night. That said the East Fork Satsop will take a bit to blow out but the Middle Fork and West Fork Satsop looks to get that rain in about 8 hrs so your going to have a wall of water and crap running hard so be careful as this forecast is butt ugly.

Bingham rack reports ( plus the Springs ) for Nov 10th have 9351 total Coho total thus far and 2020 was 7878. One number that jumps out is in 2020 the W was 1000 and 2021 thus far 1550 W Coho. The jack totals at present are darn near double last years for both H & W which is one hell of a bunch of jacks.

From one guys observation ( not me ) the Nation is catching fish this set that look to be mostly Coho. One always has to be careful though because Chum running hard right out of the ocean look like Coho from a distance. The number of tribal fishers has dropped way down also which will have a dramatic effect on the weekly catch.

Almost forgot, one has to go to the modeled commercial harvest then to the actual harvest on WDFW's website. Then compare those to see if the numbers reflect lower or higher than expected which then lets you get a better feel for things. Bottom line Chinook look to be over performing as are Coho. How much is always the fun part as it gets right down to the "gut" thing.

Think of it this way, by harvest Chum crashed but we know that a huge number went up on the brown out reducing anticipated catch. So are the Chum over or under performing? This is where the gut thing is subjective and why for Coho I use Bingham for Coho. Weirs stop the fish making the count absolute so you can get a feel for Coho. You can be way ahead on early rain years in Oct. but into Nov loose some on the count that came in early with the rain.

One final thing, DW has been tracking the Nooch for many years and gets the trap reports at the dam. This years Coho returns to the Wynoochee appear to below expectations and historical performance which is a red flag. So lots of good signs but also some red flags.

The Nooch being behind schedule for coho seems strange, but it might be explained by the fact that run is mostly wild, or late-timed. Tribe and NT Comms. have been fishing later this season, to target those fish along with chums. Maybe they're catching a significant portion of the late run. Since Bingham is slightly ahead on wilds so far, that guess might be complete crap, but.... Either way, let's hope that improves.

11/13/2021

I've been getting the trap report for about 35 years, while this year Coho adult numbers are down some, it wouldn't really matter as most of these fish are trucked above the dam by Tacoma City Light.

If I had a say, I'd put 500 over the dam, then I'd shut the trap and force the remaining Coho to find a place in one of the feeder creeks to spawn.

What is a surprise to me is the amount of Wynoochee Coho jacks this year, 140, in the past 8 years the largest number has been 42.

I tried this year, NOF, to get the legal daily jack limit raised to 12....was told no but no reason was given as to WHY.....grrrrrrrr

I will try again, think there is a better use of these jacks than to surplus them...

not trying to steal thread.....bored on a black, rainy night in zip code 98520

The only argument I can think of against a higher jack count is that it could result in a higher impact against adults received. That said, if it is a concern you would think they would put a stop to some of the lining fisheries. As someone told me, the correct way to do it is to count to 3 and yank. Then he bragged that they had hooked over 40 the day before.

WDFW's bureaucratic inertia in full bloom!

No surprise there insofar if they were to give a reason it wouldn't pass the whiff test. Easier and safer to just say NO.

Just to guess, assuming that a li it of 12 would actually result in more fish caught (perhaps lots) these would apply to NI share and reduce the adult harvest in the rec and/or commercial sectors. I don't what the the adult equivalent is for a jack; it may even be 1:1 since the fish is at end of life and can spawn. Might be able to get 12 jacks in Willapa, since there is no sharing there.

6 jacks is plenty for one day.

Then it doesn't matter if the limit is 6 or 12; you stop at 6....Other folks may be able to utilize 12. Just like the limit on waterfowl; I am satisfied with one or two.

This a C&P from a multi person email that Mike got a copy. This is Mike's reply and it is straight forward and pay attention to the failure to make Coho escapement last year. I have asked for the years we failed to make escapement for the last 10 years as the RR in the forecast model is lagging 4 or so years. When we find the info you will have it also.

From : Scharpf, Mike (DFW) <Mike.Scharpf@dfw.wa.gov>


Hi all,

I really appreciate this type of conversation, particularly as NOF is approaching. The Agency is not against the retention of the first coho encountered, but we need to consider all things important to all anglers. Until you exceed hooking and releasing 10 wild coho to 1 hatchery coho, you are killing more wilds by retention. We can argue hook and release mortality rates all we want, but the best scientific information available suggests a 10% release mortality rate is conservative. Things to consider are, is releasing that many wild fish socially acceptable, harvest limits or season lengths, complexity of regulations (different bag limits in different river sections and/or systems), and what are the limitations. Just a heads up, the Chehalis coho spawner escapement last year did NOT achieve the goal, so that is another year below goal, 3 of the last 5 years. Policy says 5% max impact regardless of forecasted abundance. A bright note, the early indicators for this year’s return are very positive, more than forecast. I will caution, early indicators last year showed a promising return, but fizzled. Hoping we see bump the late component this year.

And just a reminder, the forecast for Chehalis coho was 2 to 1 wild to hatchery, the basis for current season.

Please continue this type of conversation. These will lead into the NOF process and hope to lead to developing more and productive options.

And Mike got the years to us: Attached is a file with a bunch of numbers, it should help. Chehalis natural spawning goal was not met in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020. Let me know if this helps.

He attached a spread sheet that breaks it down by years and trib. For those who are truly interested in escapement management rather than foaming at the mouth uttering " I wanna kill a fish" , it is a rather interesting spread sheet and sobering also. Let me know and I will send it to you.

Oh the spread sheet has the numbers for escapement by reach / trib for all salmon and steelhead.

I would add that you can't be all things to all stakeholders. For example, centering the hatchery retention in (say) the Hump and Satsop could allow a more wide-open fishery there but more restrictions elsewhere.

The most liberal scheme (in terms of dead fish in the boat) is to not fish mixed stock, probably have little concern for the wild stock in the hatchery stream, and fish the appropriate rates in each stream.

We actually see this with the mixture of deer seasons; some either sex, some any buck, some 3 pt or better, and so on. Each GMU has a season based on what is in that GMU.

OK the November 18 Coho rack return numbers for Bingham / Springs are up on the WDFW website and here are 2020 and 2021 returns for the comparison same point in time.

2020 Hatchery Adults 8374 Wild 1204 Jacks Hatchery 3728 Wild 195

2021 Hatchery Adults 11749 Wild 3220 Jacks Hatchery 7015 Wild 365

On the hatchery side the return appears to be hanging out at around 34% above 2020's numbers for adults. Now 2021 wild adults are coming in at 250% of 2020 which is outstanding! Keep in mind we DID NOT make escapement in 2020.

2021 Hatchery Jacks are about 190% above the 2020 returns and 2021 Wild Jacks are looking to be 180% above the 2020 returns.

So the fears that the backside of the run would not materialize as in some years in the past appears to not be happening. This is a really big thing because in 2020 a lot of folks caught the big movement and wanted expanded opportunity. Well the big movement ended up being the vast majority of the run and we blew escapement. Again this year same thing and again bitching about hatchery numbers and wanting to expand the season. Well it appears that the backside of the run is holding up but with the rains and harvest restraints it is just OK not off the map.

Now the Hatchery Jack thing is looking good coming in at over 180% and Wild Jacks hanging out at about the same 187%. Because Bingham has a weir and can do a accurate adult count for the East Fork this is a good number. That it mirrors the hatchery returns would indicate that 2021 Coho returns are above forecast and escapement should be a non issue. It also looks like the fresh to salt survival for both hatchery and wild Coho was very good so we got fresh and out migration looking good. The next year in the salt before the adults side of this years Jacks comes around appears to be the make or break part of the cycle this time around.

As Mike said in his email we are crashing right into the GH Policy 3/5 clause for failing to escapement so 2022 should be better for the fish but restricted for harvesters if we fail to make escapement for 2021. That is the thing about the GHP it sets parameters for NT harvest opportunity but it is conservation driven. Screw up and not make escapement and harvesters will pay a price. Well we didn't do well from 2016 forward on escapement and we are going to feel the pain if we blow escapement again.

I have gotten a several calls from folks questioning the hatchery return numbers. Couple of things, first the harvest model goes from Jan 1 to Dec 31 of any given year. ALL hatchery Coho are in the model but all Coho are not the same run timing. With out looking everything up Bingham & the Springs are at around 700K smolt of NORMAL timed Coho which are the fish you see in the river to around the end of Oct but do not make it to the hatchery until Nov are when rains & flows move them up. Bingham does another 300K of late timed Coho that do not get to the hatchery before Dec 1 and the Skookumchuck Mitigation Coho are a late timed stock also. Normal timed Coho have a higher smolt to returning adults ratio than do later returning adults.

So when one sees the forecast of returning Coho adults be it hatchery or wild it does not just include those that we fish on in Sept through Oct but all the way to Dec 31.

This is getting to be an issue because that Satsop has only made wild Coho escapement 7 of the last 20 years and not in the last 5. The Hoquiam, Wishkah, and Wynoochee are performing similar with the Nooch being an absolute basket case. The Nooch Coho returns are so bad that if they did the mitigation Coho ( that WDFW has not done as required ) that we still could not fish that river itself because the wild Coho are so weak that a release wild hooking mortality would bring the numbers way down.

The simple fact is that the Chehalis Basin Wild Coho production that enables harvest is being propped up by the streams ABOVE the Satsop. Why is the question and frankly I think it is a nature thing. The upper basin tend to come back more toward Nov. ( increased rains / flows ) which results in less harvest pressure, the rain thing.

I try to not put things up on this thread that I cannot verify but I will now. We keep this up and as a good friend said to me "we are going to screw the pooch one to many times and take ourselves right off the water". We are really close to doing real damage to wild Coho tide water streams Satsop down.

Now that is a fact not opinion.

11/19/2021



Well here I go again, Hoquiam, Wishkah, Wynoochee rivers not enough Wild Coho to make escapement so looks like things need to change from Westport to 105 Bridge.

Alaska and Canada are part of the problem, BUT no one wants to take that on.

I've felt that 100% of the NT and QIN fish, need to be accounted for either Wild or hatchery, in a timely manner. WDFW should post those numbers on the State web site.

As it is now there is more value to wild fish, than hatchery.....short Wild fish, then maybe major problems for future years.

The present method of getting a handle on wild numbers is spawning surveys and punch cards data from sports fishermen.....both long after the majority of the Wild Coho have spawned.....for sure way to late to do anything in the current year.

If the NT and QIN would make available the Coho numbers, maybe something could be done in the current year. Region 6 doesn't like to make any adjustments to the schedules.....so even if the nets showing waaaay more Wilds than hatchery, I doubt if anything would get done?????? I think that is why there is no accounting of Wild vs. hatchery during the season, THAT I'VE SEEN.

Sports above 105 Bridge did our bit this year, hatchery only, not many of those caught around the area I fished.........I checked the Satsop Springs and Bingham hatchery's. quite a few hatchery Coho are showing now.....guess I need to re-learn how to catch those hatchery Coho????

Now I do know that Region 6 has shut the whole season down, 2015, Chehalis and tribs. 100%, no Chum fishery and no summer run steelhead on the Wynoochee, no nothing but it was after QIN, NT, Bay fishery was ending.....I never did, know what prompted that closure.

11/20/2021

A next morning thought.......

Coast Wild steelhead are getting a type of protection that most of us never thought would happen:

1. No bait

2. No fishing from a boat

3. release all wild steelhead

others, that I've forgotten but that would really be scary to most salmon fishermen if those same kinds of rules were applied.

WDFW personnel have had about 18 months of "out of office time", lots of "tv time" to get creative.