This is a e mail thread that came in and I found interesting. C&R has gotten to be a tool used but the consequences have not been vetted completely. For us in GH it has been a issue as the mortality numbers have been ah .. working .. ah oh hell pretty much made up by WDF&W or another way to say it is best guess. Staff twice in meetings stated right out the QIN called BS. Add to that the NT Commercials use of ( or lack of ) recovery boxes is just pure BS when calculating moralities. The year that WDF&W put in a C&R NT Commercial on Coho in Willapa comes to mind which literally had dead salmon floating all over the place.

So as things are a bit slow I thought I would throw this up with NOF ( or something ) not that far off.

Thread bottom up:

I've been following all your posts with interest but I obviously haven't chimed in to date. Your message below has prompted me to pass along that I've been doing a bit of work lately to try and acquaint a few of the loud voices up our way with real information rather than mythology. Have a look at a couple of the posts at steelheadvoices.com. The back to back pieces on October 9 and 22 speak to several of your points.

My bottom line is we've oversold catch and release as an angling panacea. For BC's remaining wild steelhead fisheries we're now catching too many fish too often for there not to be consequences. Days ahead are going to see much debate about limits on the number of fish that can and should be caught per angler per unit time. I can hardly wait!

As for the ocean fisheries, C&R is a colossal problem still not adequately recognized. I've seen far too much of the mishandling of ocean caught chinook and coho to accept there isn't a major problem with post release performance and/or mortality. Those original studies by DFO sport fishing "professionals" up on the Queen Charlotte Islands hardly mimicked what goes on in other times and places. I knew all the people involved in those studies very well and I spoke with them at the time about the optics of doing their work as guests of the biggest commercial sport fishing operator in the world (that was Bob Wright at the time) and how inappropriate it was to be applying the results of highly controlled experiments conducted by fish handling experts to the general angling community. You can appreciate how far any caution around the business interests of Mr. Wright travelled.

Anyway, "onward" we go. All the best.


Subject: Re: "Catch and release" and charterboat xxxxxx lobby

There are (at least) two aspects to C&R and the second gets very little research because of the difficulty in actually doing it. It is easy to measure short-term survival. As noted, release into a pen or watch the fish swim away isn't "really" testing C&R but it is what we have. And, as is often discussed, most studies are conducted using anglers who are either highly skilled or highly supporting of having the fish survive. Short air exposure, etc.

There was a really good summary article in AFS's Fisheries about a year ago. What caught my eye was that some work on Atlantic Salmon showed lowered smolt production for fish that had been C&R'd. This is the key to C&R. How is long term survival and productivity changed. Take steelhead, for example. If a female is C&R'd, successfully spawns, and kelts all is good, right? No. If she spawned lower in the watershed due to loss of energy she will seed less stream and produce fewer smolts. If she spawns shallower in the gravel due to the same energy concerns the eggs are subject to scour at lower flows; fewer fry produced. If she kelts out but is so weakened that she does not actually survive the transition to salt we lose the repeat spawner that is critical to production. This resorption of eggs post release is considered a problem in sturgeon.

We have to look at the affect on the individual as a whole, not a one or two day window in its life. The problem is how to test. A fish can't be caught or not caught. Therefore, we don't know how C&R affected the individual.

All that said, we know that C&R does work for fish; many species are flourishing under it. We know that it works for salmonids; again many populations are doing well under it. I would add, though, that the most successful C&R fisheries for salmonids (generally trout, some of which are C&R'd in marine waters but most in fresh) occur on post-spawning fish. Summer fisheries on spring spawners. Even the summer fisheries on fall spawners allow the fish a chance to eat and recover. C&R on fish close to spawning (steelhead, FW salmon) probably directly reduces spawning success. This may not be bad if the fishery access, say 10% of the whole run. But as access rises, population gets hurt.

I am on the Willapa mailing list and this on Willapa from Chad so I thought you Willapa fishers might be interested.

Hello Everybody,

As we come to the end of 2016, just wanted to send out some information on a couple of fronts. First, stock assessment field activities for Chinook and Chum have been wrapped up. We are just reaching peak spawning for Coho on the northern end of the bay. Peak spawning for Coho will progress from North to South with the southern end of the bay peaking just after the first of the year, historically. We have had some requests for Chinook and Chum escapement data already so wanted to let everybody know where we are at in that process. While all the field activities as it pertains to stock assessment data collection are finished there is still a lot of work that needs to be completed before we will have preliminary escapement numbers for those species. First, all the data must go through our QA/QC process to make sure everything has been recorded and entered correctly. Scale and genetic samples collected during the 2016 season have been sent to their respective labs and we have just started receiving results from those samples. Our timeframe for having preliminary escapement numbers for Chinook and Chum is the end of January. Secondly, on the NOF front, regional staff will soon be sending out a call for proposals to commercial fishers for ideas for alternative gear to try during the 2017 season. Proposals will be due to our office by COB of January 20th. Only those proposals that meet the alternative gear requirements set forth in the Willapa Bay Salmon Management Policy (C-3622) will be considered. Lastly, there is a table below that has a tentative schedule for our upcoming Willapa Bay advisory/public meetings for North of Falcon 2017. Please keep in mind that this schedule is tentative and subject to change depending on staff availability at these and other meetings held throughout the state. The schedule is meant to give you an idea of how many meetings we will have, when and where. It is not a finalized schedule. As always, please feel free to call our send me an e-mail if you have any questions, concerns or need additional information.

Date Time Location Meeting Type Topic
Feb, 22nd 2017 6pm – 8pm Raymond HS Library Public 2017 forecasts and 2016 post season
March 14th 2017 6pm – 8pm Raymond HS Library Advisory Management issues, fisheries constraints and fisheries modeling
March 23rd 2017 6pm – 8pm Raymond Elks Lodge Public Management issues, fisheries constraints and fisheries modeling
March 30th 2017 6pm – 8pm Raymond HS Library Advisory Fisheries modeling continued
April 20th 2017 6pm – 8pm Raymond Elks Lodge Public If necessary


Chad Herring
Willapa Bay Policy Implementation Biologist
Montesano District Office
48 Devonshire Rd
Montesano WA, 98563
Office#:(360)249-1299
Cell #:(360)470-3410
Chad.herring@dfw.wa.gov

Kim sent this out a bit ago so I thought I would get it out for folks.




Grays Harbor Advisory Members,

Welcome to the 2017 NOF planning process. Please review the lists below pertaining to the 2017 NOF meetings.

Listed below are meeting dates pertaining to Grays Harbor:


Meeting Date Location/Time
GH & WB Forecasting 2/22/2017 Montesano City Hall 6 pm to 8 pm

GH Advisory 3/9/2017 Region 6 Office 6 pm to 8 pm

GH NOF Public Mtg. 3/28/2017 Montesano City Hall 6 pm to 8 pm

GH Advisory 4/14/2017 Region 6 Office 5:30 pm to 7 pm



List below are meeting dates pertaining to NOF and PFMC:


Meeting Dates Location
PFMC Salmon #1 3/8 to 3/13/2017 Hilton Vancouver Washington
301 W. Sixth Street
Vancouver, WA 98660

NOF #1 3/20 to 3/21/2017 Lacey Community Center and NWIFC?

NOF #2 4/3 to 4/5/2017 Lynnwood Embassy Suites
20610 44th Ave W
Lynnwood, WA 98036

PFMC Salmon #2 4/7 to 4/12/2017 Double Tree by Hilton Sacramento
2001 Point West Way
Sacramento, CA 95815



You will be updated if any meeting dates/locations or times should change.

Sincerely,

Kim Figlar-Barnes
Fish Biologist
WDFW Fish Program – Region 6
48 Devonshire Rd
Montesano WA, 98563
360-249-4628 ex 235

Well if your brain does not explode then your safe but frankly this is disturbing and scroll down to the fish part. Why? Because it says we are screwed / no solution but that is MY opinion you draw your own.


http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2017/01/jan1317_07_presentation.pdf

Some questions on Steve being gone and now it is official.


From: Cunningham, Kelly J (DFW)
Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:38 PM
To: DFW DL Fish Program Personnel
Cc: DFW DL EMT
Subject: Announcement: Region 6 Fish Program Manager

All:

I am happy to announce that we have selected Annette Hoffmann as the “new” Regional Fish Program Manager (RPM) for Region 6. Annette Brings with her a solid fisheries management base derived from her previous experiences, most recently as the Region 4 RPM. Annette’s ability to identify multiple solutions to problems, her commitment to the resource, and her support of staff will serve her well in the region. Her collaborative, data driven approach to the work coupled with her commitment to team and ability to consider issues from multiple perspectives will be put to the test in one of our most challenging regions. I have no doubt she will rise to the occasion just as she has done throughout her career.

Please join me in congratulating Dr. Hoffmann and wishing her well in her new position.

Kelly

Here is a change again. This is a e mail I received not my thoughts.

This is much better than Michelle Culver. I know, that bar was buried underground.........
He used to work for me. This one came out of the left field stands, third deck. But, Larry is/was a pretty good guy. He does fish a lot. Ocean (just bought a big boat), bay, river, lake, stream. He also hunts, or at least did. Has a lifetime license in Idaho.



________________________________________
FYI

From: Stohr, Joseph S (DFW)
Sent: Tuesday, January 17, 2017 12:35 PM
To: DFW DL WDFW Staff
Subject: New Region 6 Director

Hello:

I’m writing to let you know that after a very competitive hiring process we have selected Larry Phillips as our new Director for Region 6. Larry has been with the agency since 2000 holding fish management positions on both sides of the Cascades. His strong communication skills, natural resource knowledge and ability to connect with our stakeholders will serve the agency well. Please congratulate and welcome Larry into his new role.

Joe

http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2017/02/agenda_feb1017.html

This is the Commission Agenda and you might want to remember that the do a GH & Willapa Policy reviews so one might want to keep a eye on this.

We've known Larry for years, he IS one of us despite what some may think. This is good news, he has always been receptive to issues and thoughts we may have concerning numerous fisheries. Bob and Melanie

Saturday Feb 11... GH and WB mangement plan reviews scheduled to take up the entire morning agenda.

That makes 3 monthly commission meetings in a row addressing my nearest/dearest fisheries.

The mad scramble leading into NOF begins.

Forecasts for GH and WB are due out in about 3 weeks

Here is a change for Grays Harbor on the NOF bit and nope I do not spend a lot of time trying to get information out of R 6. It is not to far off and frankly I was never one to try to get a jump on others through contacts as some do. So I can not help you guys with the waiting NOF will come around soon enough.



Hello Grays Harbor Advisors,

Please note the Grays Harbor Advisory Group meeting scheduled for Thursday March 9, 2017 has been changed to Tuesday March 7, 2017. The meeting location will be the Region 6 Office in Montesano from 6-8 pm.

Sorry for any inconveniences this may cause, the meeting date changed due to conflicts with the PFMC meetings in Vancouver WA.

If you have any questions please feel free to contact me.

Sincerely,

Kim Figlar-Barnes
Fish Biologist
WDFW Fish Program – Region 6
48 Devonshire Rd
Montesano WA, 98563
360-249-4628 ex 235

This link is to the presentation for this Saturday's Commission time on the Grays Harbor Management Policy. Last years run performance is part of it and more so take a peak. My final bit on the runsizes I got the Chinook & Coho thing but lord I did not see 70K of Chum but that rain ... ugg!

New year new game but same players but it is game time again.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2017/02/feb1017_14_presentation.pdf

For those who did not get here is the Willapa presentation for Saturday also.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2017/02/feb1017_15_presentation.pdf

Just a reminder for folks on the up coming NOF meetings for GH & Willapa. To the question on the preseason forecast I do not know and to be honest have not even tried to find out as it matters little as they do not have agreement with the QIN yet. The QIN usually give them their data in the latter part of March along with their proposed seasons. So this folks is about the states numbers only and nothing is set in concrete.


Meeting Date Location/Time
GH & WB Forecasting 2/22/2017 Montesano City Hall 6 pm to 8 pm

GH Advisory 3/9/2017 Region 6 Office 6 pm to 8 pm

GH NOF Public Mtg. 3/28/2017 Montesano City Hall 6 pm to 8 pm

GH Advisory 4/14/2017 Region 6 Office 5:30 pm to 7 pm

This is a C&P of a article from the Aberdeen Daily World regarding the last Commission meeting.



The possibility of an Endangered Species Act designation for salmon in Grays Harbor and Willapa Bay is a major driving force behind modern salmon management and was part of the discussion at the Fish and Wildlife Commission meeting in Olympia a week ago.

It is the potential conflict between hatchery-produced salmon and wild salmon that has federal fish managers pushing for a management plan for Willapa Bay salmon that favors naturally occurring salmon over their hatchery counterparts, despite recent DNA testing that has shown there is no distinction genetically between the two.

“We had no genetic separation between hatchery and natural origin Chinook in the bay or any of the sub basins,” said Fish and Wildlife biologist Chad Herring. “That is the goal, to not have a distinction.”

Fisheries managers generally try to manage fish to protect the weakest stocks of salmon in a particular river system and most biologists believe that hatchery salmon present a competitive threat to the wild fish.

In the case of Willapa Bay, the conflict between hatchery and natural origin fish and the attached threat of listing led the state to radically drop Chinook hatchery production from the Forks Creek Hatchery near Holcomb on the Willapa River from 3.3 million fish to 350,000 last year. Since the Willapa River has been designated a “primary river,” the majority of the effort in the Willapa Bay system is focused on its Chinook salmon. “Some runs of each species will be considered primary runs, the most important runs in that geographic region, and those runs will be taken care of more carefully and aggressively than other runs designated less important for that species,” said Commissioner Miranda Wecker, who resides in Naselle. “We designated the Willapa a primary river for natural origin Chinook.”

Careful study of data collected from this primary run led state fish managers to conclude the number of hatchery fish returning to the spawning grounds used by natural origin Chinook was too high, prompting the cut in hatchery production.

“What you want to do is keep natural origin fish in the purest form of natural selection,” said Wecker. “Hatchery fish that make it into the spawning grounds degrades the productivity of the natural origin fish.” She said the natural origin fish that spawn, go out to the ocean, compete for resources and return are more fit than hatchery fish, and will continue to get even more fit if the number of hatchery fish supplying their genetics is cut down.

Herring says biologists have a tool called the all-age analyzer that, when fed with current data, including harvest, hatchery production and habitat, can produce a model of what those factors might do to a species of fish out to 100 years. The model that produced the best results for naturally occurring Chinook on the Willapa River was one where only 350,000 hatchery fish were released.

“We have something called the ‘pHOS,’ the proportion of hatchery fish on spawning grounds allowed,” said Herring. The state’s management policy for primary systems like the Willapa River and contributing systems like the Naselle River, “the pHOS needs to be 30 percent or lower,” he said. “Right now we have a pHOS in the Willapa in the high 70s, and the low 80s in the Naselle. Because of that we had to reduce the hatchery program at Forks Creek. The modeling showed that if we reduced hatchery Chinook to 350,000, when the fish return in 2019 the model shows we would be more likely to meet the pHOS. The policy is there hopefully to deal with situations before we get into the critical area where an Endangered Species Act designation is imminent.”

Grays Harbor biologist Mike Scharpf provided his annual fisheries management review, the highlight of which was a much larger than expected run of chum salmon and more coho than predicted.

“We had chum escapement nearly double the forecast,” said Scharpf. He added that the non-tribal commercial impact on the run was “pretty low” because the run came in after the three-day non-tribal commercial season.


Early data from the 2016 season suggests non-hatchery escapement goals will be met for Humptulips Chinook, Chehalis coho and Grays Harbor chum, but not for Humptulips coho or Chehalis Chinook. Preliminary information also showed that all fisheries impact limits were obtained in 2016.

Scharpf noted that 2017 could be another difficult season. Chehalis River Chinook natural stocks are expected to be below goal, as are Humptulips River natural origin coho. He added the Grays Harbor Control Zone could be closed if the final escapement estimate for Chehalis River non-hatchery Chinook is less than the objective set forth in the plan.

Management challenges were discussed. Commissioner Bob Kehoe asked Scharpf about the apparent inflexibility when it came to in-season adjustments for commercial take commenting, “The policy seems to be so constraining it doesn’t let the Department of Fish and Wildlife make adjustments” to seasons when the returns are higher than expected or when the return arrives at a time outside of the very short commercial season. “Why do we not take advantage of active management? Why not let them fish?” asked Kehoe.

Scharpf replied, “The effort was lower than it has been historically, so we didn’t have the data we usually have to calculate the impact of the fishery.” He noted the only successful week was the week after the commercial fishery ended, and that the salmon didn’t return when expected, adding “There are no reliable in-season updates to make in-season changes to the seasons.”

Commercial and recreational anglers were given a chance to talk about Grays Harbor salmon management. Several complained about being shut out of talks about the seasons.

“Welcome to the food fight,” said Twin Harbors Fish and Wildlife Advocacy President Tim Hamilton. When it comes to fish management, “The dilemma is, fish will trick you.” He says the uncertainty of nature and salmon runs in general require more boots on the ground data gathering. He added the importance of a policy for Grays Harbor salmon that takes in federally required guidelines of naturally spawning fish versus hatchery fish can keep Grays Harbor salmon stocks off the federal Endangered Species List. “I lived through the spotted owl, and I don’t want my people to have to go through anything like that now.”

Willapa Bay fall Chinook numbers were lower than predicted in 2016, both natural stock and hatchery. Likewise for the coho run. Goals for Chinook spawner escapements were not met anywhere in the system; the best performance was 69 percent of the goal on the Nemah. Coho on the other hand nearly doubled expectations for escapement, and chum performed even better.

“I spoke to a manager at the wildlife refuge and she said you could literally walk across the bay on the backs of chum,” said Herring. “She said she saw chum where she had never seen them before.”

As with Grays Harbor, the difficulty of data gathering was listed as an issue when it came to management. Data collection was difficult here because of an emphasis on alternative catch means for commercial fishermen, including the use of tangle nets instead of gillnets, led to lower than usual fisheries participation.

Looking ahead to the 2017 season, stocks that are expected to perform poorly are Willapa River fall Chinook, Naselle River fall Chinook and Willapa Bay chum. Herring says new tools for better in season fisheries updates are being developed and refined to give managers better tools to work with.

As for alternative gear, floating fish traps were something Herring said he was in talks about. These traps are movable and designed to catch and hold fish, allowing for less net mortality and more selective harvest targeting hatchery fish. One public commenter was quick to point out he had experimented with a floating trap on the Columbia. “We couldn’t catch two fish in a floating trap. The seals ate every fish that went into the trap. I’m just afraid you’re going to spend a lot of money on something that does not work, even during the large runs.”


Commissioner Kim Thorburn from Spokane asked Herring about the importance of harvesting larger numbers of hatchery fish to favor the survival of wild spawning fish. Herring said the harvest of hatchery fish is important to that goal, but adjusting seasons to target hatchery fish over non-hatchery fish is difficult at best, and very hard to do when data collection during the season is so spotty.

This was just one of many meetings leading up to the April 7-12 final meeting of the Pacific Fishery Management Council meeting in Sacramento, Calif. There the 2017-18 ocean fisheries regulations and state-tribal fishing plans are finalized for all inside area commercial and sport salmon fisheries. A list of these meetings can be found on the WDFW website.

Well the NOF first meeting for GH & Willapa is done and how does it look? In a few words terrible in GH but not as bad in Willapa. I managed to lose the Willapa numbers but it is the natural Chinook that are hard down but not worse than other years. The big item rattling around here is the fact that the Commercials keep going over there % of runsize in harvest. It is a Section 7 thing which is the adjustment clause in the Willapa policy and can/will involve the Commission, maybe.

Now GH is different and is up in the air. So Chum we have agreement with the QIN and the numbers is 32,300 which puts 11k and change up for harvest. Coho is interesting or something as no preseason forecast yet. The state and QIN forecast are VERY different. 29k from one and 109k from the other. Now that is one hell of a gap and simply put we wait for the differences to be worked out. Remember we are limited to 5% impact if the forecast is below 110% of escapement.

Fall Chinook are going to be down, way down from the past couple of years. The one number we got was 8k which is below the 9753 escapement goal but I do not have the other number but 8k is the low one. Because of the 3/5 GHMP rule which is the limiter on harvest if you fail to make escapement three out of five years no matter what our impact will be 5% of the runsize period.

Spring Chinook are way down also at around half of escapement which will pretty much end conversation on that except to 5% again as with the Fall Chinook.

So first step done and Mike will send me the models he has so I can get them out next week. More to come.

On coho, what are PSF's based on? A long time ago, WDFW had a forecast (low) based on smolt numbers and QIN had a higher one based on escapement in brood year. Biologically, a PSF based on smolts should be closer to the truth as you have incubation and rearing thrown in before the ocean.

I suspect, though, that the argument will be around the statistical "robustness" and we will somehow magically end up with a forecast that allows some fishing. It will be large enough to allow a QIN fishery and a reasonably matching rec fishery in the ocean.

Rivrguy did a good job of posting the general concept of the meeting.

The disparity between forecasts would be alarming were the numbers 200K and 270K. With the numbers being what they are, these forecasts more or less prove that this business of forecasting returns to set seasons ranks high among the factors directly responsible for the ongoing decline.

At 29K, nobody's fishing. At 129K, everyone's fishing... until the numbers don't materialize, the sporties get shut down again, and the fish take another deadly blow.

Bad, bad, bad.

Indeed...

We're in the penalty box for wild Chehalis kings and wild Hump coho for 2017... 5% impact cap for both stocks.

Depending on where we land on the forecasts for wild Chehalis coho and wild Hump kings, a directed fishery on either stock is still uncertain.

If the PSF's come up short, the best we can hope for is a one fish bag on hatch kings and hatch coho constrained by a 5% wild impact.

So...one fish limit on the Satsop again this year? Even with how large the 99% hatchery early run (September-october) was?

I called the local WDFW office, spoke with wardens and "Biologists" this last year. I have been fishing the satsop since I was 4 years old for coho on the Satsop. I told them that I have never seen an early run like I had this last year. Even some of the old timers agreed. With the one fish and done limit, I found myself handing my rod off a lot. Bringing friends who are new to fishing, just to punch more fish. Its a waste of time, money and energy when a guy can show up, chuck a bait of eggs one or two times and leave. At least with a two or three fish limit it makes worth my time. I live close, but still.

Is there any real reason why they wont come out to some of the bank spots and/or wait at the launches to see simply "how good the fishin' is". I mean they have a bunch of fish counters, use them. They could have raised the limit to two fish from September-October and probably barely made a difference in escapement. I handed my rod off one day about 15 times. Most of those fish went home. I feel no remorse whatsoever. As I shouldn't.

Were you at the meeting Wednesday night????? This is the time for you to be heard......you got something to say, rise your hand...get on the call list....then when your name is called, say what you got to say.

NOF is where its at, not in September or October....and for sure phone calls during those periods of time....probably go in "one ear and out the other". Might make you feel good but NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN, until NOF 2018.