DW and I hit the send button at about the same time but a little more. Last years season this years forecast and remember we were down two weeks last year. Wild Coho number here as hatchery are not the limiter, the freshwater impact number ( dead adult ) is 3450, bay 580, commercial 627, and then the Chehalis Tribal is 251 for a total NT impact of 4657. So with somewhere around 2006 wild Coho impacts available 2021 and subtracting Chehalis tribal 251 we will have somewhere around 1755 for our NT fisheries.

So bottom line is whatever this season is it will restrictive from recent seasons. To be blunt everyone is going to take a real hit and big time guys. Two ways to do this reduce time fishing or reduce harvest success be it C&R or other restrictions. If we do time then it is an additional two weeks or so putting the season opening somewhere around 15th of October for lower river Fuller Hill down and backing the date down similar upper basin and tribs. The other way is to fish early and go to you run out of impacts my guess being closing around mid October for the year. The big dog here is freshwater guys as that is where our harvest numbers go but the bay is in the same situation just different time line. C&R is difficult also with mortalities which can be reduced but nobody will like what that means. There are no easy answers to this one folks.

Considering the lack of effort in tidal waters below Monte last year and the lack of fish to catch with the Oct. 1st opening last year, if the 2nd week of oct. is going to be the opening for lower river why the fuc* bother? Opportunity to fish when no fish are there is no opportunity at all. Just go with Sept. 15th and let us fish, whether with limited days during the week or just catch allowable numbers, shutting it down after limiting numbers are reached. Otherwise just shut down the whole dog and pony show, we are more likely to catch ponies and dogs then fish with this proposal.

It is not a proposal Bob but a look at what the math says nothing more nothing less. The purpose of the post is to get folks off their butts and think about what options they can put forward to meet the challenges we face.

Well, if the math is that dismal, not opening the river at all IS an option. Why waste gas and effort when it's a pointless season? I'd rather see realistic seasons or no seasons at all. All it does is give an appearance of a season that is pointless as far as the ability to actually catch fish. And give the state license money under false pretenses. At this point the only people who will catch fish with opening the river in mid-October are those fishing frog water 'cause all the fish will have already made their big push.

03/26/2021

bobrr:

You are just like many others, if you can't fish the fish YOU want to fish, then shut the rivers down.

There are fish, that YOU might not like to fish But many others enjoy the sport and table fare fresh and they are great smoked.......Jacks, Coho jacks.

Every year for the past 6 or 7 years, I go to all the NOF meetings.....listen to the fighting between NT and sports about how to divide the season, who gets what when and where.....I always stick around until the last part of the meetings just to get my say on "jacks", has it done any good????? Well, there doesn't seem to be a problem for those that enjoy "the catching".

Might not be everyone's cup of tea but it is a ACTIVE FISHERY for those of us that enjoy it.

Bobrr...sorry your season in the Chehalis was bad.....you and Melanie might have to "change how and where you fish", one of the best years I've ever had.

Oh by the way, many of the people I've met during the fishing season on the Chehalis, were 1st met jack fishing.....more than 40+ years, many still show every year, some are fishing in the "big river in Heaven"...... I'll be there soon enough!!!!!!

Actually, we did quite well overall, just nothing in the river. A good number of kings for a change. A nice one in the sound, a 1st for us in years, new area. So we do get around, just more then you know. I never said shut down the jack fishery, if that floats your boat, fine. I just think that the fish might as well get up the river untouched by anyone from Sept. 15th on if the river is closed at that time. That way lots of spawners rather then jacks will increase numbers overall. Lets face it, from Oct. on the guides take the majority of fish in the river 'cause they fish it day after day, with boats full of clients, upriver. Pain should be equally shared. Bob R

I think I need to put this out for folks again. The GH Policy ( GHP ) requires that we have 110% of escapement in the preseason forecast or NT fisheries are limited to a 5% impact on wild fish of the species in question. It also requires that if we failed to make escapement 3 out of 5 years ( 3/5 clause in the GHP ) then again we are limited to a 5% harvest impact on that species.

We are restrained this year by the 3/5 provision ( called the 3/5 box ) but have a wild Coho forecast of 5809 NT harvestable but the 5% cap reduces this around 2000 wild Coho impacts. Again last years season, with a two week shut down, with this years wild Coho forecast the wild Coho impact number is 4657. Which in a perfect world would give 1152 fish pad or even get part or most of two weeks we lost last year back but we cannot because we are in the 3/5 box on wild Coho.

That is the issue and the thing is the Rec fisheries are the big dog here with fresh water Rec fisheries taking nearly 2 1/2 times the combined impacts of all other NT fisheries. So we need to be forward thinking and come up with strategies that provide opportunity for all but protect the fish so when the runs get out of this down cycle ( which they will ) we are not nailed by past failures to makes escapement.

Two other items. Some are .... ah .... a bit grumpy about the GHP restrictions. Well the GHP is a conservation driven harvest policy and when it bit the NT commercials in the ass big time that didn't bother you but now that the shoes is on the other foot your bitching ? That dog don't hunt guys.

Also we are out of the 3/5 box on Chinook but with the massive over harvest of our Chinook in AK and BC we only have 550 harvestable wild Chinook impacts. With wild Chinook C&R our impacts are modeled at 254 so a keep fishery is out as the Rec fisher would eat the 550 number in a NY moment.

The simple fact for the Rec fisher is the growth in fishers from areas outside the Chehalis Basin in the last 10 years is huge as other areas of the state struggle with their stocks. This is not going to change so strategies need to be developed that address this issue. As for the bay fishery when it was implemented it was for fishers from outside the local area. That was the purpose stated by the AD at the time and not much has changed. What has changed again is the amount of fresh water Rec effort. We can no longer fail to address this issue because it is not going away.

Foregone opportunity.

Foregone opportunity is not relevant. The tribes have taken more then half repeatedly without using foregone opportunity as an excuse. They still can only take the numbers agreed on legally. If the state wants to let their share go upriver and spawn then that's what will happen to those fish.

No it won't. If the Tribes want claim opportunity, they can and if necessary take it to court. Those fish have been identified as fish that have to die (from the managers perspective). I have been in situations where the state wanted to pass a few Chinook into the escapement (less than 100) and the tribe said if the state won't catch them, we will.

Tribe takes its share and some with Chinook. Coho kinda goes back and forth. Chum somewhat similar but Steelhead we are way way out in front of them with C&R on wild letting us fish and then we are 100% a head on Summerrun and these two are large numbers. Also terminal sharing is not 50% as the marine harvest in WA ST waters is calculated in and state takes way more than tribal on the ocean. All and all the Nation has been more less fair about things. It was only a few years back that they informed the state guys that they would not pass on the states ocean intercept not be calculated in.

To be honest since the GHMP was adopted the Nation has worked around things in a manner that is acceptable.

Some folks have asked where to find the runsize history updated in the Coho forecast model and it is in the summary tab. The information is from 1980 on updated in the tab and it is rather startling to look back at numbers. This problem with wild Coho returns we have did not sneak up on us but rather just happened in 2015. From 2010 to 2014 the wild returns were above 80K and in 2014 hit the high of around 150k. Then in 2015 dropped all the way down to around 30K and has been hanging in at around 40K with 2018 being up a few thousand. When you look at the 10 year graph it is dramatic to see the line go from near the top of the page to darn near the bottom in one year!

Another question is why has the tide water fishing been so poor in recent years? Well a good portion of it is the reductions in hatchery production over the years which was substantial and the other is the bloody weather. I can remember in years back that hunting would be restricted into Oct. because the woods were to dry and the fire danger. In recent years that has not been the case and the last few years it has rained early and bounced the river. The rule is not much rain until Nov. tide water fishing is great but if it rains before mid Oct. the fish simply shoot right up the river and in the toilet we go. So the recipe for horrible tide water fishing is a low return and early rain. The effect is just the opposite inland as the rain brings the fish to them early. Does not matter where you fish but mother nature is not a very nice lady and can be a bit of a bitch.

Does anyone know when we can expect the Initial Season Recommendations form the Department? I have sent two Emails asking that question and have received no response...which is unusual. I don't always receive the response I am looking for but I usually receive something.

I think the options or what it will be is going to be put forth on April 6th video meeting https://wdfw.wa.gov/get-involved/calendar/event/north-falcon-grays-harbor-fisheries-discussion-0

Thank You!!

JT they sent options out late today but I have more than one question on what was omitted. If your not on their mailing list PM me your e mail address and I will forward it to ya.

Also for those that got the e mail remember we threw several new concepts at staff and frankly these ideas are a work in progress and challenging for staff. So if you want the options pm a address and its yours or wait until the 6th as those who participated in the last vid meeting are tracking this pretty tight. The options as they stand now are intended to be first look with feed back from the public and Adviser getting them to a final draft. In other words Mike and Kim are working with public participants to get it right and acceptable as to accuracy for the QIN representative Mr. Johnstone.

Update time and at the present staff have added some things. First they are labeling suggestions as ideas as from my seat some thought the option things were like the marine. Like 1,2,3 and that is it rather than a work in progress. So we are at two wdfw ideas and five rec suggestions ranging from loosing two weeks in Sept to keeping them and loosing days of the week season long. The commercials have only two suggested seasons.

Staff is modeling the suggestions and so far of the 7 only two meet the 2021 wild Coho 5% non treaty impact cap so far. If you want to propose a season or want the suggestions so far send your suggestion to Mike.Scharpf@dfw.wa.gov or Kim.Figlar-Barnes@dfw.wa.gov.

Oh yeah almost forgot, North Bay is the bay and mouth of the Humptulips and East Bay the bay up to the 101 Bridge.

04/04/2021

I tried to "copy and paste" the document from WDFW. I don't know how to do that but I think its important that you see the 7 ideas.

I just checked the WDFW web site.....nothing was there that a person could click on to see the "7 ideas".

As I am anti gillnet, NT have NO restrictions in 2 A/D and 2/C, only time on the water.

Sorry I can't be more helpful........

Oh one more comment, I have NO idea how the general public will be able to vote on their choice of what they favor of "ideas 1 - 7".

This is a bit jumbled up but I think you can sort it out. There are 3 ideas for 2021 salmon seasons and this a C&P of them and staff comments in the email. If anyone wants the e mail and models just pm me an address.

From: Grays Harbor (DFW) <graysharbor@dfw.wa.gov>
Sent: Friday, April 9, 2021 5:57 PM
Subject: Grays Harbor Fishery Ideas and Excel Models



To All Interested Parties:

Based on comments received since the last meeting, we have reviewed the models, ideas, and opportunities, and provide three updated ideas that meet management objectives. There are concerns with some uncertainties and assumptions around effort; such as a shift in effort from ocean anglers to the North Bay by extending the season by one week and a shift in effort in the Chehalis River to the downstream selection that would allow any coho. Assumptions agreed to in 2018, when a similar season structure was in place for the mainstem Chehalis, where 40% of effort occurs downstream of the Hwy 107 Bridge. These models provide a little buffer if there are shifts in effort. Please take a look and if you wish, provide feedback.

Thanks again and have a good weekend.


Draft State managed Grays Harbor 2021 fall salmon fishing ideas
Areas Bag limit Season
Idea 2 Idea 3B Idea 3C
North Bay 1 fish, release wild Chinook and wild coho. Aug 1-Sept 23 Aug 1-Sept 23
East Bay 1 fish, release Chinook Oct 1-Nov 30 Oct 1-Nov 30, Tue-Sat only Oct 1-Nov 30, Wed-Sun
only

Lower Chehalis (Hwy 101 Bridge to Hwy 107 Bridge in Montesano) release adult salmon Aug 1-Sept 15 Aug 1-Sept 23
1 fish, release Chinook Oct 1-Nov 30 Oct 1-Dec 31, Tue-Sat only Oct 1-Dec 31, Wed-Sun
only
1 fish, Realease Chinook and wild coho Dec 1-Dec 31
Cheh R Hwy 107 Bridge upstream to
South Elma Bridge release adult salmon Aug 1-Sept 15 Aug 1-Sept 23
1 fish, release Chinook and wild coho Oct 1-Dec 31
Cheh R upstream of South Elma
Bridge and Tribs 1 fish, release Chinook and wild coho Oct 1-Dec 31

Humptulips River 2 fish, release wild Chinook and wild coho Sept 1-Sept 30
1 fish, release wild Chinook and wild coho. Oct 1-Oct 31
1 fish, release Chinook and wild coho Nov 1-Dec 31
NT Commercial 2A/D Week 44, Oct 24-30 Three (3) 12-hour days
Week 45, Oct 31-Nov 6 Two (2) 12-hour days Two (2) 12-hour days
NT Commercial 2C Week 43, Oct 17-23 Four (4) 24-hours days
Week 44, Oct 24-30 Two (2) 24-hour days
Management objectives
Chehalis coho impacts 4.90% 4.56% 4.81%
Humptulips coho impacts 3.05% 3.35% 3.36%
Chehalis Chinook expected Esc. (goal 9,753) 9,529 9,548 9,543
Grays Harbor Chinook expected Esc. (goal 13,326) 13,420 13,443 13,438
Grays Harbor Coho expected Esc. (goal 35,400) 36,042 36,174 36,072

Last year's QIN schedule.

what a [Bleeeeep!] show!