Doesn't take a rocket science person to write a clear, easy to understand statement...

Salmon Sept. 16 - Jan. 31. Daily limit 6. Only 1 adult may be retained. Release "adult" unmarked/wild Chinook and Coho.

Anyone not understand that???????

Email has been sent to WDFW and the replacement/cover people while Mike Scharpf is on vacation.

Happy fishing!!!!

Oh.....the QIN will be Netting Sunday noon(9/18) - Tuesday noon(9/20)

Hope some fish get by the nets....

I've never understood how the reg pamphlet can be sent to print with the wording over something simple being so convoluted that the user can't understand the rule. How much are we paying these people???

You want me to send you the link to all public salaries in Washington State???????

You might need a case of toilet paper, when you see what some of the salaries are.......

OOPS!

Looks like I screwed up reading the spreadsheet and got that harvest data wrong.

What I cited above is only for 2C (Hump Estuary)

There were more taken in 2A/2D (Chehalis Estuary):
Wk 36: Three days, 135 kings 16 coho
Wk 37: Five days, 90 kings 29 coho
Wk 38: Two days, nothing reported to date (still)

Judging by what DW and I have been seeing watching the nets you should not see much change other than a small bump up on reported numbers. The current set with the rain and cooler water should help but the crest of a 200 cfs is at Porter today and the lower trib bounce was not much. Couple this with the 8 1/2 mesh size the QIN by regs are running Chinook gear and is more or less a tangle net for Coho. So .............. I am out of ideas but in the past the QIN have insisted ( and got it signed by both parties in the season agreement ) no in-season adjustments to preseason forecast. Had the Chinook performed as forecast Ed would have looked like a genius conserving Coho and picking up the unused state share. The Chinook did not so he has the other end of the stick so to speak but it will be interesting to be sure to watch play out.

Im not sure if it was asked yet, but what impact will the QIN not being in from September 28th-October 30th have on the sports fishery? Even if the fish show, if they aren't fishing, does that shut us down?

id say yes

but it might not happen until after the state boys have there shot at netting..

Grrrrrrrr

I see that the WDFW web site, has/is posting the weekly tribal and NT catches 2 weeks behind again this year.

The weekly totals for both bays, were posted in a timely manner, during the first few weeks, August - September.....

See below:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/commercial/salmon/landings.html

I do not understand, why you would leave 2015/2016 catch figures in this August 2016+ data report.......makes NO sense to me !!!!!!!!

Looks like weeks 38 and 39 are there now DW.

Methinks the bay guys missed a golden opportunity in the south channel last week!

Oh well....

With the Chinook run and tribal harvest nearly complete it is becoming clear that we are seeing an epic failure from any perspective.

The harvest data says that the run size was way over estimated. Each year a harvest model is developed starting with a run size estimate. After removing the escapement goal, any remaining fish are harvestable. Then allocation is applied before crafting a season based on historical harvest rates. When actual harvest data is available one can “run the model backward” to estimate the actual run size. Some adjustments need to be made because the model calculates impact rather than fish in the boat.

After completing four of five weeks, the tribal Chinook harvest in 2A/2D (Chehalis Chinook) of 1,052 fish amounts to 18% of the expected harvest!!! This implies that the Chehalis Chinook run size is 18% of the forecast. If the wild Chehalis Chinook come in at 18% of the estimated run size of 19,500 it would amount to 3,510 fish compared to an escapement goal of 13,500.

If one makes the same calculation for the Humptulips Chinook, it results in a harvest of 40% of the model and a similar reduction in the run size estimate. The coho run is in the early stages but four weeks of tribal data indicate that the harvest is 23% of what the model predicted in both areas. An unusually small run was predicted but results to date suggest that both Chinook and coho runs are significantly less than the prediction. There is some chance that that the harvest could have been higher but it was so poor that a number of fishermen just gave up and did not fish.

If you are an optimist, Grays Harbor looks great compared to Willapa. The commercial harvest for week 37 (the only data on the web site) indicates a run size of 11% of the forecast. If you are a pessimist, next year should be even worse based on ocean conditions when fish smolted the past two seasons.

This harvest data should be creating absolute panic at PFMC and WDFW.

Ouch. Does a lot to explain what I saw yesterday, fishing both Willapa Bay and the Chehalis. Willapa was weird. Marked fish all over the place, but we only got one lousy bite that didn't stick. Others we talked to hadn't even gotten a bite. Mind you, this was after about 4 days with no nets in 2T, during what should be prime time for coho. Possibly just a "no bite" day, but likely, the runs are coming in well below even the poor prediction.

As for the Chehalis, I think a lot of kings got above the net zones before the Tribe started fishing. I don't think there are anything close to 19K, but there might be more than 3500 between Fuller and S. Monte right now (not that they're biting well, but there seem to be a lot kicking around). As for coho, I've heard several shoulda been here last week reports from the bankies, but I haven't seen any in the few trips I've taken so far. I'm starting to agree that it looks bad, and I wouldn't be surprised if we got shut down after the tribal tally is complete next week.

Let us add this to the mix. Two things are really present and they are that the QIN regs require a 8 1/2 mesh which will pass a lot of Coho and smaller fish which was the purpose. The QIN effort ( number of fishers ) is way way down and they could not go full in the South Channel which really effected the harvest numbers. The early start date targeted the Summers and they really were a no show but getting a feel for it is difficult as the fish are not staging. So SF nailed the run forecast being off on Chinook but how much will play out but I have seen this pattern before so I will land on depending on harvest impacts the run looks to be in the small end near escapement.

Coho are different. As last year they are coming through the bay and right up the river. The numbers look similar to last year ( after harvest above the nets ) and the vast majority of fish I have seen are robust and in good shape liced up. The jacks have been present in good numbers and many are larger and fatter than normal which is a good sign. Now the down side, this move right up the river bit is similar to a rain movement as they are moving right up the river with tight lips. You can see them in places as they go by and see some jumping but mostly they are just moving through ignoring things unless you in the right spot. Makes catching a bitch for many especially in the tidewater. Oh and the seals came back in numbers several days ago chasing fish which is a positive .............. sorta?

Also this. By week the QIN were 135 - 3 days / 113 - 5 days / 45 - 2 days / 759 - 2 days. Notice the drop the third week which is normal, the drop that is. We have summers at the front that creates a wave in the graph line so the wave is there but the fish are missing in numbers and keep in mind the effort. The 759 with as little effort as the QIN fishers put in but is still not good except that was two days with few fishers. Normally when the summers tank the back of the run picks up and out performs the front but seldom makes up the reduced loss to the overall number.

Last but not least the modeled Coho for the weeks posted was 366 and actual is 305 which considering the low pressure by the QIN ( they are modeled based on past performance with many more fishers ) says so far the Coho are at or above preseason forecast.

The thing is the NT Nets have scheduled time and in order to put in a emergency WAC the agency has to have justification or they will get their lips sued off. Simply put proof the the need exist to make a emergency rule. Not what I or you think, feel, or read in the tea leaves but hard data which does not exist at the moment. What we have at the minute is simply low QIN harvest of Chinook but also few fishers but increasing Chinook numbers well below expectations.

Make a new plan, Stan
You don't need to be coy, Roy
Just get yourself free
Hop on the bus, Gus
You don't need to discuss much
Just drop off the key, Lee
And get yourself free


Yeah, baby.... folks are FREE to keep wild jacks!

And just so no one thinks I've been "recreating"....

Good Afternoon Grays Harbor Advisors,

We’ve received comments about confusion with the wild Chinook and wild coho jack regulation in the Chehalis and Satsop. In past years the regulations regarding retention of wild jacks has been variable relative to runsize information. During the 2016 North of Falcon negotiations the resulting package retained some wild jack opportunity, except for in the Chehalis after September 16th. The current regulations were intended to reflect that package. We are able to consider a revision to those regulations consistent with past years and have passed an emergency regulation to that effect. Feel free to call me with questions 360-249-1205.

I want to thank you all for taking the time to communicate with us.

Been a bit of a dance but staff got it fixed. Sure going to make the light tackle guys happy!

Not yet on the website, but it's official.

.
.
.


WDFW FISHING RULE CHANGE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091
http://wdfw.wa.gov

September 27, 2016

Anglers can retain wild jack salmon on Chehalis River

Action: Open Chehalis River to the retention of wild chinook jack (a chinook jack is less than 24 inches) and wild coho jack salmon (a coho jack is less than 20 inches).

Effective dates: 12:01 a.m. Sept. 28 through 11:59 p.m. Dec. 31, 2016.

Location: Chehalis River, from the mouth (Hwy 101 Bridge) to the Hwy 6 Bridge near the town of Adna, Grays Harbor/Thurston/Lewis counties.

Reason for action: The projected return of chinook and coho are sufficient to allow for the retention of wild chinook jack and wild coho jack salmon. Anglers currently can retain hatchery jack salmon.

Other Information: Minimum size 12 inches, daily limit of six. Only one adult may be retained. Release wild adult chinook and wild adult coho salmon. Trout and gamefish fisheries remain as provided in the 2016/2017 Fishing regulation pamphlet.

Information Contact: Mike Scharpf, Region 6 (360) 249-1205.

Its on the WDFW web site now, 9/28/2016......Not only the Chehalis River but also the Satsop River.

100's of jacks were released, under the wording in "Washington Sport Fishing Rules". My observation is many of the jack releases were Coho jacks but there were also some Chinook jacks.

It is a good move on Region 6 personnel to get this done in a timely manner. Jack fishing for a portion of the fishing public is a fun pastime and "they smoke up great and off the bar b que can be very tasty.

Now for something that sucks. Week 40 QIN catch has not been posted. http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/commercial/salmon/landings.html Now the end of things no but if one is trying to understand what is going on it is important. In another thread folks are crossing all over run timing and fish solely on weather / flows and it does not work all that well as the biological drivers ( egg development / spawning window ) are always in play. When looking look at the weeks fished and you will notice that wk 39 had a jump up on Chinook but wk 40 is not up. Couple that with the two days on the storm rise Chinook poured out of the bay and up river one could feel better about things, maybe.

Folks the agency for years has always been a target rich environment and frankly many of us know just enough to be loud and complaining is the norm. That said it is pure 100% USDA BS that one the QIN did not provide the numbers or two the agency staff did not bother to post them. The public can not and will not be able to support or even have a little faith in the process when the co managers conduct themselves in this manner. Be it QIN or WDF&W being the culprit here someone needs a ass kicking but it is more likely to get a award for service.

Are we concerned that overfishing may have occurred, or is it mostly the lack of transparency that concerns us here?

EIther way, I'm starting to get the sense that one reason the NOF process is what it is because it hides accountability when controversy arises. It's not WDFW's fault, nor is it the Tribe's. It's those Co-Manager people who need to be taken to task... but just who are they? Two parties, equally accountable and self-managed, is essentially an absence of true accountability.