Weather rain forecast is moving around some as to day to day. The thing that looks like an event that will do someting is the Olympic side with the upper Satsop (Haywire Ridge) getting around 2 1/2 inches the 20th. This is supposed to take the gauge at the old highway bridge from 332 CFS to a peak 48 hours later to 1500 CFS around average flows date & time and then dropping fast. It looks like a couple of days or more of dirty water . The upper Chehalis looks different with Porter 372 CFS to a 1000 CFS but does not get near average flows date and time.

So it looks like muddy water for the lower tribs for a bit but above Fuller should stay clear and the Satsop clear before the Upper Chehalis water gets to Fuller hill. No matter how you look at it the bay is getting a shot of mud. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

On a side note the tribal set nets are getting a ton of filamentous algae which is a bitch to clear out of a net. This usually comes with the fall flow jump but evidently it it decided not to wait.

For those using the link to NWRFC above when you open the page look to the right side hit the forecast percipitation then the 240 hour forecast.

Update on fish. After some conversations this, this morning on start of incoming the coho moved out of the bay in numbers and by slack water this afternoon the catch was even up coho and chum. ( chum are bright barely any stripes) South side of the river from above Lakeside down stream much better catching than north side of the river. So upriver guys you have fish coming at you in numbers. Now what one does not know is if this is something that will continue or die out but the movement is substantial at the moment.

There have been a few times working traps when volumes just showed up. Once we had a couple hundred coho just jump in, no rain or anything. Another time we had a few hundred that came up on a freshet. An angler down near the mouth said he suddenly saw herds go by. No biting, but the moved in a hurry.

One time on first rain on really low water we had a one foot river jump in the day and as the employee did his evening rounds noticed fish moving but nothing not normal. Before he went to bed he did another evening check and headed right back to the office phone. It was now 11 in the evening and I shot up to see what was going on. From 5 to 11 PM we had nearly 2500 coho pour in. So we blocked the trap but damn near rolled the pond. As we used ground water that does not go up like the river so we had low summer flows with damn near the return all at once. The Coho return never did it like that again but it was educational.

Chum escapements are, or were, estimated based on live counts made weekly. One drought year a small southern HC stream was close to dry. No chum on count day. Then it rained. The next count day, a week later, the stream was full of spawned out dead chum. No live count that year.

The more time one spends on traps (where you can actually count and the fish) the more weird things you see.

In an effort to get summer pinks for a recovery program on the Dungeness we installed a trap low in the river. First day 400 coho were passed. In late summer. There are (or more accurately were) no known summer coho in that river.

Drove by a stream this weekend while out cutthroat fishing that they monitor for summer chum. 12,663 back as of Sunday which is a record. Great to see.
You mention a stream going nearly dry. One I fish at is completely dry in the summer down in the tideland. Up in the woods there is still water and fish. The chum fry are all gone by then but I assume what I’m seeing are coho. Pretty cool their ability to survive.
SF

Coho or cutthroat/steelhead.

Nice to see good chum numbers, the fish will be fed.

Good point. May have been cutthroat. I found documentation that mentions steelhead in this stream, but I’ve never observed on there.
My not seeing any doesn’t mean though that there still aren’t some around.
With those summer chum number plus the fall fish, the cutts should eat well this spring.
SF

When we did steelhead spawner surveys, weekly, on 100% of the anadromous zone on known numbers of fish were were lucky to see 10% of what was in the stream at that time.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

Stasop flows are going up vertical on the graph about 580 cfs rise so far and more to come. Hit the 240 forecast tab for percipitation and the ten day forecasted flows are going to be headed up no low water thing at all. Upper Chehalis is staying low until around the 27th then up we go. So no matter what we get from this storm on the Olympic tribs the Chehalis above Fuller Hill should be okay and if it gets some color it will not be much before the 27th.

Little edit: Updated forecast has the weather coming in at or around the 25th to be a substantial event. The 26th through 30th has the Olympics at 6.98 inches in four days with more coming.

In the last 24hrs the nooch dam area has had 4.69 inches

I think we are getting more of these intense events, which will make flows more flashy and jump higher but then fall off as fast.

Well NOAA missed on this storm.Satsop was supposed to top out at around 2000 CFS and this morning it is 4300 CFS. It did that in a little over 24 hrs. Wynoochee similiar miss just less flows as the dam controls flows. Chehalis is not muddy in Central Park yet and that surprises me.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

One thing I learned from doing run size updates is that you base the future on the past. You are always behind when something changes. If the warmer ocean is giving changes in the overall patterns we miss that until it stabilizes for a few years. Things are shifting too fast.

We have mud for sure in tidewater and the tribe and NTs are both fishing outgoing and a bit of a traffic jam above the 101 bridge. As many as 6 drift boats at the same time. Some tribal set nets pulled but others are staying in despite the crap coming down. Thing is not a lot of catching going on so far this morning.

I can tell u right now that there isn't the fish WDFW said there will be..Maybe on paper but not in the river !!

10/21/2024



You might be right...."time tells all" but the word I've seen and getting is there were many early coho caught/released during the 9/1 - 9/15 period of time. 9/16 - to present time, there is NO WAY to actually know the amount of legal fish caught by sport fishers......yea they have some people monitor some of the launch/take out sites but this is NOT done daily. Yea, there are models but timing of fish AND on the sports side "how many punch cards are actually returned", I'll guaranteed its not 100%, and at one time when I checked it was less than 50 %.

I know that WDFW and the QIN, use models BUT if the numbers used in the models are not accurate then the results aren't accurate.....yea it might be better than 200 years ago but "we still don't fully understand "why fish do what they do".

Guides are suppose to report "everyday", just what their boat caught EVERYTIME they have clients in their boats, I've never seen any mention of that in any models or even been able to find results in any WDFW computer documentation.

I am posting this to be sure all know of this vitual meeting on Steelhead.


NEWS RELEASE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Oct. 10, 2024
Contact: Rob Allan, 564-669-3360
Media Contact: Bridget Mire, 564-224-0845

WDFW to host virtual coastal steelhead town hall Oct. 23
OLYMPIA — The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) will host a virtual town hall meeting on the 2024-2025 coastal steelhead season at 6 p.m. Oct. 23.

WDFW Fish Program staff will share information on steelhead management, abundance, 2024-2025 season forecasts, and a 2023-2024 season summary. They will present potential fishery options and hear fishery proposals from the public.

“We have seen an increase in steelhead abundance in most coastal Washington rivers in the past year,” said WDFW Fish Program Director Kelly Cunningham. “While this is encouraging, we remain committed to conserving coastal steelhead while offering meaningful fishing opportunities in future seasons. Public input plays a crucial role in our management of this important species.”

The town hall will also include preliminary data from a one-year study in the Hoh River to determine wild steelhead impacts while fishing from a floating device. The 2023-2024 season marked the first time since 2020 that anglers were allowed to fish from a floating device on the lower and middle sections of the Hoh River, located in the northern Olympic Peninsula. The upper section of the Hoh has been closed to fishing from a floating device since 2016.

Members of the public can participate in the Oct. 23 meeting through Zoom, either online or by phone. Meeting materials and information on fishery management, including past town halls, are available on WDFW’s coastal steelhead webpage.

All members of the public are invited to share their perspectives and participate in WDFW public feedback opportunities regardless of race, color, sex, age, national origin, language proficiency, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity and/or expression, status as a veteran, or basis of disability.

Staff will present information about preliminary forecasts to the Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission in an Oct. 21 special Fish Committee meeting. WDFW plans to host a second virtual town hall meeting in November.

WDFW continues to operate under its Statewide Steelhead Management Plan, which requires the Department to prioritize the sustainability of wild coastal steelhead runs by focusing on healthy levels of abundance, productivity, diversity, and distribution.
The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife works to preserve, protect and perpetuate fish, wildlife and ecosystems while providing sustainable fish and wildlife recreational and commercial opportunities. 

Request this information in an alternative format or language at wdfw.wa.gov/accessibility/requests-accommodation, 833-885-1012, TTY (711), or CivilRightsTeam@dfw.wa.gov.

im sure no fishing on the chehalis and its tribs

Good fishing water right now but we have some ugly weather coming. It looks like rain starting tomorrow and the 10 day has upper Satsop at 8.26 inches. Good news is that it is mostltly around an inch a day give or take but 10 days out something changes will have to wait and see what that is. Upper Chehalis looks to have about half the rain that Olympic side is to get so it looks to be about location and being mobil for fishing.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

If your not used to NOAA's site right lower corner hit forecast precipitation then 240 hours. You can find the projected rain data that drives the forecasted flows.