Had a question on what is the river doing. Well water is perfect tides are ok and Chum are on the move. Watched Sealions get four this morning in open water and they are all moving up with the incoming tides. According to averages over the years about half or more are Coho mixed with the Chum. It has to be a good sized school of fish to have the furry buddies staying right with the fish so upstream from Central Park has a bunch of fish coming. Now that is not going to last as the QIN netters are going in and that will thin the herd out a lot.

Ran the sled down from Porter quite a ways on Saturday.

Original plan was Fuller but a totally full parking lot made me think I'd rather fish in peace.

Not many fish around that we could find. We did get a number of jacks on eggs and two adults, one semi bright and one firetruck buck. Jigs and spinners were not making it happen.

Talked to a guide with two clients that hooked one Chinook on the oakville float.

Bite was best 12-4 or so.

Did some looking around and here is what I came away with. The QIN had a catch of Coho and Chum mix last week. This set is mostly Chum in fact Coho are scarce. Sealions are coming well up the river past Higgins Island following the fish coming with the tides and the splashing and seagulls say they are doing well. So it looks like the Chum are coming in numbers but Coho not so much at the moment. I have asked for the NT and QIN numbers but have not gotten a response but if I do get them will post them right away.

Did some looking at numbers and not good. The hatchery escapement after harvest was modeled at 26,089 hatchery origin. So far it has 9703 Coho adults and folks that is not a good number. Using the average over years we are supposed to have 65% give or take of the normal timed Coho past the tribal nets. Sooooo considering the Coho have trailed off in the tribal net fishery it looks those of us who had the sinking feeling that the 111K Coho forecast was a bit of a reach is looking to be true. Have to wait some for the state post more hatchery escapements to do a comparison on what the wild escapement is doing.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/hatcheries/escapement

Little Edit: I have asked for the NT and QIN harvest numbers but I was only provided the first NT set and they are posted on WDFWs website. I hope the numbers are provided but ........................

Took a look at both the Satsop hatcheries Coho returns. At about 17K and 2500 jacks which looking back is about what it was the last couple years. Thing is the QIN & NT commercials missed most of the Coho run those years so not having any harvest numbers makes it almost impossible to say how the Coho runs are doing. Guys I have asked twice for both commercials landings and all that is available the days of 10-2 & 3.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/weekly-escapement-10-31-2024.pdf

Guys I do not know why the agency is doing what it is doing or why but as said I will ask again.

After looking all over I was able to kinda get a feel for this. Chehalis Chinook, Coho, and Chum harvest is about 1/3 of forecasted harvest impacts. Then you must factor reduced fishers this year and it looked like some of the NTs are not fishing. Chum are coming hard now so that number likely will change. That said the Coho / Chum mix in the harvest is way off now but the general thought is the early part of the run did just that come in early which drives the viability of the Chum fishery into the ground. We still have the November Coho so the feeling is that when all is said and done Coho should make escapement and Chum the same. Chinook is another matter and it looks to be short to well short of the preseason forecast.

One final item the Sealion problem has gone from bad to worse as at times they ae getting more out of the drift netters than the fishers.

Gentleman I know sent this report on his fishing the Nooch.

Here is a report for you. I caught a bronze male chinook, 8 chum (several bright females) and a nice 8 lb chrome coho hen on the Nooch today. Coho were tough to locate.

Commission approved the “new and improved” Grays Harbor Policy

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/...cy-102524_0.pdf

Escapement goals remain the same, but GONE are ALL of the harvest sharing metrics of the previous policy… only that the fish be shared “fairly”.

Also GONE is the 4:3 principle that in the previous policy ensured at least 3 net-free escapement days per week. Now the policy only requires that they acknowledge “the importance of unobstructed passage” in scheduling net days. Translation? “Gee… ok, it’s important. Now let’s go fishing!”

GONE is the 3 out of 5 rule, a safeguard prohibiting a directed fishery on any stock that has failed to consistently meet its escapement goal at least 3 of the previous 5 years.

The only remaining semblance of the harvest safeguards invoked in the original policy is the 110% rule which I authored 20 years ago as a small buffer for preseason forecast error, prohibiting a directed fishery on any stock unless the PSF was at least 110% of the escapement goal.

I used to actually be proud to have been deeply involved in day to day management of our salmon. That's embarrassing at the minimum. Better hope somebody out there has the money and cojones to bring in ESA because that is the remaining hope for those wild fish. The Co-Managers don't give a rat's *ss about them.

This got me to thinking, maybe the secret goal of WDFW is to get the Gray's Harbor salmon ESA listed. Then they could blame the feds for all the closed fishing seasons. Cuz it looks like the Department just gave themselves the go ahead to fish each wild salmon run down into the escapement goal and call it business as usual.

Probably a lot of truth to that. WDFW knows that the state doesn't care about wild fish. They know the AG's office argued in front of the Supremes that the state had a right to blow runs away. Gives a convenient whipping boy.

Having traveled with others to the many meetings for the old policy as did WDFW staff then to see what the Commission did does not make me mad but rather sad. The decline of both WDFW and salmonids will continue and many staff and the Commission will still think all is fine. Sad is the only reaction that fits this this action.

When I learned Harvest Management the first goal was achievement of the escapement goal. That defined success. Over time, that shifted to the fishery.

Any fresh Hos coming?

Watched three QIN fishers this morning and Chum right there this morning on incoming but Coho where not in the mix much.

Bummer.
Thanks

More recent water had my hopes up.

It is early yet as the Nov rain fish or T-day fish are still to come. Forecast has storms coming in and 4 days out flows right up above average. Now the question is mud and how much how long? Have to wait and see but 8000 cfs rise on the Satsop is going to take us to winter flows fast. Also this time the upper Chehalis is going to get heavy rain!

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

So the NT commercials are up on the WDFW website and here are the numbers. Chinook modeled impacts 143 actual 12 Coho modeled 4527 actual 1638 and Chum modeled 5957 actual 3524.

https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/commercial/gillnet#grays-harbor

Keep in mind the reduced effort, Sealions cleaning the nets for them, and when a so called Chum fishery is missing Coho it is not viable for the commercial fishers. We do not know the QIN numbers as WDFW no longer post them. I was told that the QIN may start posting them on their website next year. It looks like the 31% of forecast for Coho is coming true, around 50% for Chum. I do think Chinook did as bad as the numbers say but missing the QIN numbers it is impossible to say .

Bingham and the Springs have 21,900 hatchery Coho so far 26,089 was modeled. As the Satsop sub basin wild production performance usually is similiar to hatchery this is a better number. So the Coho coming in early ahead of the QIN and NT commercial fisheries looks like the wild Coho escapement should be close. Satsop Chinook numbers are a disaster.

Little Edit: I am told fishing has been okay as the November Coho are moving with perfect water conditions. That is about to end and buckle up the first big storm of the year is about blow right through us.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi

Some folks emailed asking how the river is doing. Little hard to say with the king tides but it is a brownish gray color here in Central Park. Satsop and Nooch are dropping fast so someything should clear for a day or so anyway. Whatever the river is doing now it is going to change really fast in the next few days. Chehalis at Porter will get to what is called action stage ( get everything out of the fields ) by the 26th. Olympic tribs flows are looking to cycle up and down but they have to clear some but the forecasted rain is substantial. Hump 13 inches in the next10 days. Upper Satsop 14.66 in the same time frame. It is a really ugly forecast not just for fishers but for everybody.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi?v=20200803v1

Coho are still coming but the Satsop hatchery Coho only had 1300 new arrivals last week.