Unlike you, Hank, I have actual numbers and real analysis to back up my opinion about that.

In 2016 there are 34 Senate seats up for grabs. Of those 24 are currently held by Republicans, 10 by Democrats.

Right now the Republicans have 53 seats, the Democrats have 45, plus the two Independents that caucus with the Democrats.

That effectively makes it 53 to 48...so the Democrats have to gain 3 seats to retake the Senate.

Four current Senators whose seats are up for grabs in 2016 will not be running for re-election, presumably.

John McCain will be retiring, most likely. That's going to be a hotly contested seat.

Chuck Grassley will be retiring, he's in Iowa. Iowa voted for Obama in 2012, and is likely to vote for Democrats again in 2016...both Clinton and whoever is running for Grassley's seat as a Democrat.

Assuming Marco Rubio wastes everyone's time by running for President again, he won't be able to run for the Senate to defend his seat...in Florida, which also voted for Obama in 2012. The Republicans will lose that seat, and Florida will vote for Hillary, too.

Rand Paul can't run for re-election, not if he runs for President again, which he will...in a laugher, of course, but that didn't stop him last time. I don't expect the Democrats to win Kentucky, but it will be a close run there, too.

There's two for sure right there...Republicans will lose a seat in Iowa and in Florida, and maybe in Arizona, too.

That's 51-50 Republican, and only after looking at four races...and it might be 51-50 Democrats after just looking at those four races.

Other Republican seats up for grabs?

Mark Kirk in Illinois...again, Clinton's voters will vote for whatever Democrat runs against him, and he'll lose.

New Hampshire voters will vote for Clinton and whoever is running for Senate on the Democratic ticket...Ayotte will be out.

Same story for Ohio (Portman), Pennsylvania (Toomey), and Wisconsin (Johnson).

There will also be close races in Indiana and North Carolina.

Right now there are 53 Democrats, 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, and 45 Republicans in the Senate...after yesterday's elections we'll have 53 Republicans and 45 Ds and 2 Is...and in 2016 we'll likely go right back to 53 Democrats and 45 Republicans, give or take a couple.

There are always bigger turnouts in Presidential election cycles, of course, and bigger turnouts always favor Democrats.

Many of the contested seats will be in states that voted for Obama, will vote for Hillary, and in turn will vote for the Democrat for the Senate.

None of this is particularly hard to figger out...just takes a few minutes to look up what seats are going to be contested, and how those states are likely to vote. It's actually pretty simple.

Yesterday these are the seats that the Democrats lost:

Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia.

Guess how many of those states voted for Obama in 2012?

Two.

The States that tend to vote one way or another for President also tend to vote that way for Senators...and that factor is significantly more pronounced in major year election cycles, like 2016.

Yesterday the Dems lost a handful of seats in states that they did not win in the last Presidential election, and that handful of seats swung the balance of power in the Senate.

In two years the Republicans will lose a handful of seats in states that they will not win in the 2016 Presidential election, and that handful of seats will swing the balance of power right back, in almost the exact same proportion.

The Republicans will probably pad their lead in the House even more...but will lose the Senate, and we'll have a Democratic President, and it will look a lot like it did two years ago.

Book it.

Fish on...

Todd

I'm sure Mia Love is getting lots of congratulatory phone calls from feminist and civil right leaders.

I think the Republicans will end up with the 52 that have already won, plus Begich for sure...that makes 53. Not sure what will happen in Louisiana but I suspect that Landrieu will not win there, and that it may end up being 54 seats for the Republicans.

That, of course, has little effect on my analysis above of how unlikely it is that the Republicans keep that majority for more than two years.

Fish on...

Todd

I think one outcome of yesterday's sweep is that Hillary took a deep shot to her chance's to even run for POTUS. She not only does not have coattails, she actually sinks ships. I'm pretty sure that the Dems are going to look elsewhere now.

True, duh. They're all dead.

Hank, GOP has control of the Senate with a coalition. The House was Democrat, still counting votes, but I expect that in the end it will remain barely Dem. One of the Representatives from Federal Way passed away within the last week or two after a long illness. The guy he was running against was a piece of work in all the wrong ways. The dead Dem was re-elected.

What a spineless turd Ebola is.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/...hout-the-Senate

Geez, there is some weird $hit in the article comments on that site.

todd, i would like to agree with your 2016 prediction but the amount of money now being spent on elections can and will change things in ways we cannot yet see.

That's because of a few things...reading Breitbart is kind of like reading Mad Magazine, only it is less factual, and the readership consists of right wing fruitcakes and imbeciles with single digit IQs.

If you believe what is on Breitbart then you are the kind of deep thinker that believes Obama was born in Kenya, which is a small town in Nigeria, that he is a Manchurian candidate raised in a Madras, that Saddam Hussein personally flew planes full of Ebola into the Space Needle, and that Elvis is still alive and managing a Herfy's in Phoenix.

In other words...you are a complete idiot like Sol Dunce.

Fish on...

Todd

We heard a lot about voter suppression (voter verification for those on the GOP side). It will be interesting to see how and if that played into the results on Tuesday.

The stand up comics have to be happy as hell with the election results. Going to be a surplus of joke material for the next two years with the Republicans controlling Congress. It will be pure comedy gold watching the clowns clamoring to board the corporate steamroller before it starts rolling through the river and over the woods on its way to flatten Grandmother's house. With Honey Boo Boo tanking and Duck Dynasty in the doldrums, the timing couldn't be better. This kind of entertainment doesn't have much longevity, but while it lasts, expect Bill Maher to land a couple cable specials and Jon Stewart to win two Emmys.

Where's your "analysis", Hank?

Or is this:



...all you got?

Fish on...

Todd

Let's see what Judge Judy thinks about it.



Well, there have you it.

You mean like the last 6 years of fodder they've had?

Hardly. The last 6 years have been normal funny. The next two years are going to be El Nino funny. Probably won't quiet down 'til after the 2016 election.

You been in a cave or such?

That's your analysis?

You and Sol Dunce should start a brain trust called "Two and a Half Brain Cells for Change".

Fish on...

Todd

One thing for sure is, Todd is NEVER right about anything....like clock work.

No, what I did was answer your question as to why the Dems will have the Senate back in two years.

Your solid analysis was this: ...which I assumed to mean that you didn't agree.

Tell me how the Republicans keep the Senate in two years, if that's what you think will happen.

Fish on...

Todd