Tuesday 9/12/17

Did the "high tide" bit this morning, 7:30 - 10:30....had good run out "in the fast water", anchored where I have for 30+ years, well close any way.....good eggs, still have some of the "green moss" but doesn't seem to be as bad as it was....

bottom line, 3 hours no "jack bites", never saw a fish jump or anything roll, checked the deep holes, on way out.....fish finder NEVER marked a fish. No other boats and no bank anglers.

Can't stay as long as I'd like, Chehalis River has not a lot of water at both sides of low water....jet boat runs well in low water, it's the mud and sand, that slow me down........I've done that bit, run out of water,,,,then have to sit for 3-4 hours for the tide to float me off, NO THANKS, in 2017.

Bummer. Not the update I was looking for.

Oh, well. Guess we shouldn't expect much to change before some rain and cooler temps get 'em moving (whatever's out there...). They'll come, eventually... I think....

It says something when I see a guy from elma in the north end. I was going to spend the day down there but I'll stick to fishing where the fish are. I'll see you guys in a few weeks. Ill have a good report from sand island to fuller on sat.

Looking better and look at the expanded range of the rain down South.
https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi

The Chehalis at Porter shows nearly a 300% jump but does not drop all the way back. The flows will not be great but it should clear a lot of bad water. It would be great if the beaver ponds dumped but I do not think there will be enough rain. It is about how it comes down fast or over days. Fast is good, this time.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

For those questioning the difference between the Rec and nets encounters with NOR Chinook the question was asked and R-6 responded.

Look at the Rec encounters with non local fish and a substantial portion are of GH origin. This is relevant as the QIN for GH required balance ( their share ) of the GH Chinook after they enter WA waters ( per Boldt ). They had not done that before so C&R for GH Chinook this year. I can map a scenario that is well based ( no dart board ) that the Willapa Rec fishery on the front of the Willapa could adversely / or limit GH fisheries in particular the GH bay fishery. Bad thing happen when you do not count all impacts but it is much worse when you then do count all impacts. Somebody has to loose.

Hi Brian,

That is a good question, the answer, I believe, is the difference in where those fisheries were prosecuted. The marine rec fishery takes place in the north end of Willapa Bay with the majority of the effort taking place along Washaway Beach. Conversely, the commercial fishery that was prosecuted in stat week 36 was in commercial catch areas 2M and 2R. These catch areas are in the extreme southern end of Willapa Bay. The genetic data that the Department has collected to date suggests the stock composition of the north versus the south ends of Willapa Bay are significantly different. In the north, approximately 58% of fish encountered are of local origin as opposed to 90% local origin in the south end. Another factor that is in play here is a difference in run timing between hatchery and natural origin Chinook. Those would be my thoughts as to why the discrepancy in encounter rate for stat week 36.
Thanks,



Chad Herring
Willapa Bay Policy Implementation Biologist
Montesano District Office
48 Devonshire Rd
Montesano WA, 98563
Office#:(360)249-1299
Cell #:(360)470-3410
Chad.herring@dfw.wa.gov

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Another wasted morning, "hold over tide"....not much run out. I fished from 7:30 to about 10:30, water run out got so slow, even a float didn't move very fast. When I quit, the area up and down river "looked like a lake".

2 other boats, looking around.

No bites, no fish rolling, depth finder showed nothing in 2 deep stretches that I checked.

If you are going to run river above South Monty, DON'T DO AT LOW WATER !!!! Chehalis River just doesn't have enough water. Twidwells, at high water is only a few feet deep.....so you know that will be a "jet boat eater", until the river comes up a few feet. Nothing worse than to set on the gravel until the tide comes in.....4+ hours in 2016 for me....grrrrrr

Rivrguy-

Not sure that I entirely follow Mr. Herrings logic. Yes I understand in July early August much to Willapa Bay sport catch occurs in the outer bay (Washaway). However my observations have been that as the month of August progresses the fleet shifts it effort following WB hatchery fish towards the more terminal areas. For example this year in late August we fished out of Tokeland and every day the majority (90%) of the fleet turned east and fished the Willapa Channel. Of course those anglers leaving from Tokeland were joined by those launching at South Bend. For the reports from the anglers we talked with the majority of the Chinook caught that week were from mark 13 eastward and yes lots of wild fish were reported to have been released. For the last 15 years that has been the typically effort pattern.

I find it interesting that as the season progressed the portion of wild Chinook in the catch (as reported as wild fish released) declined as the effort shifted from the "Washaway"/outer bay area to the more terminal area. Through week 33 the report recreational catch was 209 fish with 37 wild (17.7%) released. In weeks 34 and 35 the reported recreational catch was 286 with 79 (27.6%) released. Remember the vast majority of that catch occurred the terminal end of the Willapa river arm. It is hard to imagine that any fishery in more terminal areas that would not have caught wild Chinook in roughly the portions seen in week 34 and 35 in the recreational fishery. Especially considering the relative ratio of hatchery to wild fish in the terminal escapements the various basins.

I can understand your concern about the GH incidental catches in the WB marine recreational fishery. I would think as the fish move towards the rivers that rate would decline. However it seems that a goal of the "new" Willapa plan is to increase the non-Willapa Bay fish in the marine fishery. As the returns from the change hatchery releases (2019?) kick the Tokeland/South Bend will likely to shift even more of their effort/catch to waters west of Tokeland.

Curt

I am having trouble finding fault with your thoughts Curt but then this wrinkle. Annette Hoffmann sent out the update for Willapa and the Naselle hatchery is 107 NOR & 39 HOR which is just strange. It is the one thing that happens every now and then which is that the entire run is at about 30 to 40% of forecast which it looks like to be true. That is not the thing though. This is what a composite run looks like when the hatchery production survival tanks big time. Will it hold true ..... no idea but I think it is about 50/50 odds in Willapa which is something a bit out of the blue but not unheard of.

Little edit: The Willapa hatchery production returns was forecast at 32k + & natural was 4 k+ which is 8 to 1 H over W which is why my thoughts on the hatchery fish crashing hard. Math says the 2.1 to 1 H over W is really not a good thing to see. Hope that helps answer the questions I received.

The edited numbers came from the 2017 harvest model for those looking for the source.

Also Chehalis at 80% up tidewater ( below the flats ) is 60 degrees and Muk is 65.2

Rivrguy-

I see in WDFW's hatchery escapement report that as 9/13 the Naselle the counts were 299 hatchery fish (258 adults and 41 jacks) and 58 wild (57 adults and 1 jack). As a hatchery/wild ratio that doesn't look that far out of line to the pre-season expectations.

Word on the water is that last couple days lots of fish moving up river. With the weather forecast and the commercial opening should have a better information on both hatchery/wild ratios and run strength by this time next week.

Something to keep in mind is that for the last month or so the Willapa river flows have been near historic lows for the entire period.

Curt

Here is the updated river forecast. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ and the flows are going to really and is really a jump. Might want to work fishing around the flow thing.

Not sure Curt as a run coming up short looks like late and can be either one this early in the run. The water conditions will not be of concern much longer so we wait. Preseason Willapa Chinook were about 8 to 1 H over W and is not holding sooooooo ...... place your bets late? Short? Both? So I can be humiliated when wrong I am running with both with this. I still think the preseason is way off and if we get 50% of forecast we will be lucky.

Note to self: Crow is not a good meal.

Rivrguy -

If you put a gun to my head my sense is that the run timing (to the bay at Tokeland) was about normal; However remember I'm just a angler who visits Willapa for maybe 6 days a season. I would expect the total hatchery return to be at or a bit below forecast levels. I do expect that the final hatchery return will be closer to the forecast than 1/2 of the forecast. For the wild run I expect that it be at or a bit above forecast levels.

I agree that crow is not a good meal but experience (have had way too much) has shown that lots of ketchup helps some. However rather than crow that we share a lunch with the loser treating!

Curt

I released more wild or at least "unlicipped fish this week on Willipa Bay tributaries than I would have thought. Definitely not seeing a bunch of "hatchery fish".

No crow? Ok your on Curt for lunch. Still think it is short but will see. Isn't like I haven't been wrong before.

Regardless of early, or late, the number of hatchery fish is way up over last year based on catch. I think our overall WB chinook catch this year was almost 40% wild.

Well how did everyone do on the adult opener? We put the boat in at Monte and fished up to the jack hole. Didn't see a single adult roll, but saw a group of about 30 staged below the jack hole where a few bank fisherman were. Got a report of a few coho being caught on the flats below the satsop and more being caught by the trollers below monte. We went down there to finish our day trolling super baits and lost a nice silver next to the boat. All in all very slow. Hopefully this rain will push more fish in the river.

Melanie and I went out Saturday and Sunday, I caught a really nice 10 lb. + silver, hooked nose buck and wild on the outside of the 101 bridge, Melanie lost 2 after a minute or so before spitting the hook. We went up river to Monte, she lost another near the power lines, but it felt like a king. On Sunday we went out near the bridge again, she lost one and had a drive-by as well. She did everything right non all those fish, no lines broke, just pulled the hook. Also had another drive-by. We saw VERY few fish caught, most folks were skunked. We're going out today for a quick trip this morning, going to Portland to see Govt. Mule later. Hopefully more fish moved up with this rain. Nice to see Francis in Monte launching, hopefully you had good luck. Bob R

Just a warning. I drive over the Monte bridge everyday on my to Raymond. Watched a guy in a white honda (early 90s i think) get out and look in the back of a truck and in the window. I emailed the county and they said they would patrol it more. Just make sure you don't have valuables in the truck.

Hell with the fishing, let us know how Govt Mule goes! Wish I were going!

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Mule was great, broke out "Don't Step On The Grass, Sam", as a shout out to Jeff Sessions noise about weed. P.M. me about a recording since you were so nice to respond about Mule. P.S. No luck for Melanie or me in the morning, hopefully more fish will come in for the weekend. WORST opening for us in 6 years. Bob R