and they are out of the lower tidal water. Somewhere upstream one god awful bunch of fish arrived. Hopefully they do not go into reaches that cannot be fished.

Well guys it is about to get a whole lot stranger on he river. After this bit of rain we will have a break, then it it will get wet. Starting next Wednesday over five days the Hump is forecast for 4.1 inches with a couple of days over 1 inch. At Doty it 2.8 inches for the same period but the two peak days are about 3/4 inches. The river at Porter is forecast at about 1670 CFS and the Satsop is forecast 650 CFS which is about a 300% jump in flows. NOAA is showing a flat line on the Satsop from this rain so I think the gauge is on the fritz again. This is for the next ten days so I guess we will all watch to see what happens as the long range forecast are all over the place.

East county folks your favorite weather pattern is here if the rains stop and the fish do not stampede upstream. Now if your a Lewis county person your dreams are about to come true for a early run of fish I do believe.

God wants those fish on the gravel. Drought, then flood. Often have seen coho holding, for as long as two months, for conditions to improve.

Probably the best one, though, concerns a run of chum in HC. The escapement is estimated based on live counts done weekly. One dry year, the live counts were all zero. But, one week, between counts, there was a rainstorm/freshet. The fish came in, all spawned, and all died. Forgot to ask how they estimated the escapement for that creek that year. Probably the one day dead count.

When I was working a trap we had summer chum. Had one female come into the trap in the afternoon and I passed up up. Next morning, on the spawner survey, I found her dead. Checked, and she was 100% spawned out. Must have been a wild night.

Several folks have e mailed and asked if this is a trend or a Chehalis thing. Not counting the Columbia it appears to be a coast thing. Willapa NT's went way past expectations on Chinook and Coho, I am told QIN on 2c ( Hump / bay ) did the same and then the bit on the Chehalis. So the fish showed on time ( by week ) but low in numbers. Then came in way over the proportional numbers that one would encounter. When one says a run is early it does not mean by calendar week but rather the percentage of the entire run that would normally be present. So unless the runs so far are 300% to 400% above forecast ( which is doubtful ) we have the late September and part of the October fish already upstream. So the Coho and Chinook are early and I am seeing fish showing at the house this morning so they are still moving.

Great for inland fisheries but sucks for bay and tide water folks. Like the saying goes, mother nature she ain't no lady!

No fishing above 101 Bridge, in Aberdeen, until 10/01/2020

Could be a year like 2018, fish all jetted by the local areas, and parked above Fuller Bridge.....turned into a zoo, guides, private fishermen.

Big change this year...... 1 adult Coho or Chum, NO CHINOOK!!!!

Remember, when you get your adult limit, legally you are done for the day. You can't continue to fish for jacks. Now what I'll do is try for jacks, stop before the legal limit of 6, then fish for an adult Coho. That's what I'll do BUT then I can fish every day the river is in shape.

Don't know how the guides boat handle that.....I'd not be happy if say a person made 1 cast, twitching or spinner.....caught a chrome 15# Coho and had to decide to release the fish to keep fishing or legally kill the fish and be done for the day. I'd also not be happy if the person who caught the fish was allowed to continue to fish until the boat was limited out...... I wanta catch my own fish!!!!

Ah yeah going to get weird out on the river. NOAA has updated the forecast and the rain coming our way is turning into a much larger thing. Starting the 23rd the Hump hatchery is forecast for 6.59 inches over five days with close to 2 inches a day for the 24th & 25th. Up higher elevation 7 inches and West Satsop 6 inches or so same time period.

Farther South the upper Chehalis totals decrease by day but are substantial with Doty 4.84 and most of the upper watershed about the same. The flows at Porter are projected to peak at 1800 CFS ten days out which is give or take a bit a 600% increase over the present flows. Average flows for this period at Porter are somewhere around 700 CFS and record is around 2000 CFS.

As to fishing starting Oct. 1st one can only guess. With the huge movement we have had so far then the this rain the fish will move up someplace. NOAA's ten day forecast shows the rivers dropping on day ten and it would be helpful if that happened. Just have to wait and see.

I expect that the bulk of the hatchery Coho run will jet through the lower Satsop so we (me included) won't get much of a shot at them - but hope I'm wrong. Year after year I hear about in-season adjustments, but that is aimed at closures, generally. An early emergency opening would be a good thing.

I don't think your wrong on the jet through on the Satsop as recs only fish about 5% of the Satsop Basin river miles all in the lower reaches. Upper Chehalis will benefit the early arrival though. The QIN have had a no in season adjustment clause in the season agreement in the past but I am not sure about the present and it took PRR to get the information in the past. Other than the movement I and others have documented I am not sure how you could quantify a number / species or expanded runsize to do a redo on the preseason forecast. While the modeled 2020 seasons left Coho available on the Chehalis we were short on the aggregate of all Grays Harbor which the tribe and Feds use unlike WDFW which splits the Hump from the Chehalis for overall management.

The first real indication on numbers we will have will be the QIN harvest which starts around 10/4 and then reporting being what it is the numbers in the following week. ( hopefully ) A number of folks have often wondered why WDFD doesn't utilize a sonar counter as they do in AK in places to get a real count. I guess it would help but our runs have significant species overlap which would make it difficult to sort out I am told.

So we wait to the 1st to see what happens. One thing is NOAA has added a inch to the 10 day river forecast starting today with the 23rd and 24th being the heaviest rain. The Satsop is projected to jump to 1600 CFS which is a 800% increase in flows over 10 days but not records for those days in time. The Chehalis at Porter is projected to crest at around 3200 CFS the 28th which will be a new record for day in time and then drop. It takes two days for the Porter water to make Aberdeen so we will open Oct 1 on the peak of the rise.

The bay below the bridge opens the 23rd as the rains start then will simply depend on how much color the water gets. I think we will get color fast out of the Wishkah as the headwaters are projected at 2 1/2 & 1 1/2 inches the 24th & 25th.

Couple folks asked how do I get the river information? For a daily forecast I use https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi which is a color chart by rainfall on locations

For the rivers I use https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ and just put your cursor on the dot and the graph will show location / flows / by day. On the right side of your screen you will see forecast precipitation and click on it then chick 240 hours. You will need to expand your screen to clear the clutter but then just put your cursor on a number / location and where and how much rain by day will show.

Day 3, which is the 24th it is going be ugly in the Olympics with over 3 inches across to the Wynoochee and Satsop head waters. Upper Chehalis is around 2 the 24th. Bottom line is 6 inches or more in 5 days Olympics and Upper Chehalis similar with 4 1/2 inches spread out more over the 5 days. ( not as much on day one ) At Porter the river will crest at about 3800 CFS on the 28th and drop fast. Satsop similar but is forecast to drop below average flows the 28th. Remember it takes 2 days for the Porter crest to make Aberdeen and should be clear or getting clear the 1st.

Now the bay ............... it has got to get some mud out of this but lets hope it clears. Bottom line, big ass storm coming and water should be clear by Oct 1 with tribs dropping..

For those of you watching this early rain unfold use the links I provided. This morning's update has the Wynoochee Dam getting 4.5 inches and Satsop headwaters getting nearly as much on day 2 of the 10 day forecast. Elevation is everything and the rain drops off the following days but some places still get as high as two inches the second day of the storm.

What I find fascinating is hit the River Hydrology link I provided, now look how fast and how low the flows get from the 29th to the 3rd. All the way back down to about average with the Satsop going to average. This is just plain strange !

So. Did anyone go out in the harbor in that shi*storm yesterday? Looks like it may clear a little on the weekend, will there be fish or have they all just shot upriver?

I did not fish !!!!!!

Some people, with larger boats, did launch at 28th Street and others were fishing down river from the 101 Bridge. I DO NOT KNOW IF ANY FISH WERE CAUGHT !!!!!!

I'd bet that the Satsop and area above Fuller Bridge got fish......

Well day one of the storm came up short on the forecasted rain except for Haywire Ridge. So lets see what day two does but the river flows are not going be as substantial as forecast which should be helpful for the river fishers as we go toward Oct. 1st. The upper Chehalis is somewhat close on the projected flows but the Olympic side not so much. Watching the radar it appears the storm tracked further North than NOAA anticipated.

Back side of the storm was about what was forecast and basin streams went straight up on the graphs to record flows for date in time and now are falling just as fast. NOAA's sites a not working this morning but it takes two days for the Porter crest to reach Aberdeen. So in tidewater this morning we have mud big time and all tribs are falling but no idea on the bay conditions. Porter will be at average flows by the Oct 1st and Satsop Sept 29th. At this time by the opening inriver Oct 1st you all will be looking at the entire basin almost average flows still dropping.

With the movement posted up earlier we also had a massive surge the three days before the storm. So upstream someplace there are a lot of fish but how far up did they move? No idea but they are 4 to 6 weeks from spawning so time is not pushing them yet so they should stop someplace with falling flows.

Also this, WDFW is busy updating Willapa forecast and this was from Chad Herring: As has been discussed with the group before, the Department does not currently have the ability to update Chinook runsize in-season but does have a tool to evaluate the runsize of coho in-season. This in-season update model (ISU) has been employed in previous years and is based on catch per unit effort in commercial fisheries. The ISU begins to become statistically significant in statistical week 38 (Sept 13 – 19) and that significance improves as more data points are added through time. We are currently in stat week 39 (Sept 20 – 26). Utilizing the data collected to date the ISU model predicts a natural origin Coho runsize between 69,656 fish to 35,788 fish. This prediction is much higher than the preseason forecasted runsize of 16,074 natural origin Coho. Ah yeah WDFW they do love nets they do but indications are coast wide that the Coho runs are over performing when compared with the preseason forecast.

So in the bay & tidewater your going to be fishing on what is swimming by that day as it is doubtful any staging is going to happen in the lower reaches. Up river the fish gotta stop someplace and that is the challenge but with this much water they have to be way upstream, how far is the question.

So the final outcome from the storm. Mud is nearly gone, rivers are headed to below average flows and fish are still moving in areas open below the 101 bridge. Oct 1 looks good and it will take some time for all the fish inland stage up and stop being willing biters. Remember these fish do not spawn until November. The Nation nets starting the 4th for 3 days and before I am asked NO I do not know if the Nation and WDFW will try to do what WDFW is doing in Willapa.

Melanie and I went out the last two days out in the harbor, limited out both days, had to release a few kings but they were survivors. One broke a leader slamming into out boat after 10 or 15 minutes of intense tug of war. fish was in the mid to high 20's, big kipe. Jumped clean out of the water 10 ft. out, Felt like I was using ultra-lite gear. I was glad to not have to deal with unhooking that pissed off fish. Prob. could have landed him if he was legal but tried to horse him at the end to save us both a struggle. Fish kept ranged from 4 to 10 lbs. Water was sporty today, yesterday was small boat weather, lots of effort, we saw some success on other boats. We'll try again on Thursday when the whole gang shows up.

Some folks were wondering when the QIN numbers would be posted. I do not know but I e-mailed Mike the question so more when he gets back.

With the huge early movements of Coho in Sept then the rains just how far upstream are they moving and how fast? I am told bright fish well above Oakville so they are moving right up the river and no hanging out. ( staging ) Tide water fishing stinks when fishable. You got to love 20 to 30 mph winds with colored water. Normally some Coho came along with the Chum so hopefully they will all show soon.

Mike got back and his response is below.

" When we receive those numbers, we will post them. We had a routine meeting with QIN Tuesday, but don’t know if catch was shared at that meeting. I was not in attendance, was on assignment in eastern Wash this last week. I’ll check Monday to see if those catch numbers are available."

As for a further update an old timer I know from Oakville read the post an gave me a jingle. Last three weeks ( when river is fishable ) nearly half of the fish he and his grandson have caught are Coho scales not set. The other half most just bright with a sprinkling of red and pink sided mixed in. To get that far up the river scales not set means the fish are jetting.

I have a question for the folks in the Chehalis Basin regarding closures. In recent years we have had three years of partial closures due to uncertainty of the run size or preseason forecast being small in numbers of adults. Steve shut things down few years back after net season failure but then the fish showed but we were toast by then. Some restrictions other years and this year two weeks in Sept., which if you fish tide water are your best weeks. Add to it damn near the entire Sept. and early Oct run came in way early this year.

The question is not that in lean years restraint in harvest is required but how you do it to reduce impacts and maintain a quality fishery? Some of us have talking about this and frankly I think a better solution exist. Using this year which we lost 14 days in Sept. prime time what is wrong with loosing two days a week? In other words say for simplicity the rec season is closed on Monday / Tuesday for the six weeks ( Sept 15 through Oct. 31 ) and fish Wednesday through Sunday. Might need to do some in November also so you get the number reduction required.

This strikes me as a reasonable alternative and fair to both inland and tidewater fishers. It also allows for WDFW and the QIN getting things wrong, which happens, without totally screwing over folks be it unintentional.

Your thoughts?

Isn't the one-fish limit enough of a limitation on our impact? If we have reached a point where we have no choice but to give up time on the water (when did that become a reality?), I suppose I like your line of thinking (longer season with some days closed). Of course, it only takes 2 days for a weather system to move huge components of the run upstream, so there's always the chance the two days we're closed in a given week are the days the fish move.

I'd personally rather we didn't have to pick a poison and we could just be honest about where the impacts of a day of fishing are most significant and limit those fisheries instead. I like fishing in the ocean, too, but all things considered (mixed stocks, poor incidental encounter survival, etc.), a day of sport fishing in the ocean definitely has more overall impact than any day of in-river fishing. You get a LOT more bang for your conservation buck by limiting ocean fisheries instead. Just sayin'....