There is 2” of rain expected on Sunday so it better be open on Monday. I was hoping for Sat. Might take a few days to get some fresh ones in the system. A lot of boots and fire engines. Impressive that 15,000 coho at Bingham. We definitely got the shaft on an above average coho year.

Opens Saturday. Got to let one more day of fish swim by.

LOL. Knew it would be a Saturday.

I'm delighted just to hear it's opening. We missed a lot of fish, but there should be plenty more on the way. Lots of rain, too....

But get 'em while you can, because the yet to be announced wild steelhead protection season most likely starts Dec. 1.

So I guess this is you gladly eating your words?

Beyond excited for this opening. Potential for some scale busting fish this year based on what I’m hearing from rivers down south! Gonna be a fast and furious month.

10/28/2022

Just so you know, 11/01/2022, the daily ADULT LIMIT drops to 1, release adult Chinook.

Coho limit can be 1 adult, Hatchery or Wild. Chum, 1 fish.

Stay safe, water levels are going UP UP UP, where you were able to wade, will be a large increase in volume.

I like this map. In the overlay box click on Observations. Then select Display.... Precipitation. You can select hours to view amounts. These latest rounds of rain has finally wet things down. But if you scratch the ground it's still dry shallow.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=sew

Looking at the forecast it has changed a bit and todays update is posted. So take a look https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi and looking to the flows and 240 hr forecast at https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ . ( you need to hit the precipitation 240 hour tab bottom right side of your screen) The upper Olympics are supposed to get over 4 inches with Wynoochee Dam 4.66 inches. The farther South we go the total decreases with the upper Chehalis being 2.5 inches or so.

Bottom line is the Olympic streams are going brown but peak and drop back down until the next round of rain. Flows on the Satsop are projected to go from around 400 cfs to around 2300 cfs. The Chehalis at Porter is looking for a jump from around 400 cfs to to 2200 cfs. With the upper Chehalis water taking a couple more days to reach Elma we are looking at the Satsop up then down and clearing but the upper Chehalis water arriving and if muddy it is likely keep the Chehalis brown out going.

Several days out the forecast is good for fish not so much for fishing.

The hatchery escapement reports are up for Nov 3rd are up. Bingham has had a return of normal timed Coho of 30,108 H and 2533 W. We now have an idea of just how huge the early movement was and Bingham returns say it was huge! Keep in mind that the movement was before the QIN fished so their harvest was well below expectations as were the NT commercials and the inriver Rec was shut down thus Bingham has substantial return for hatchery but wild is lagging. Chum numbers look to be about as forecast by harvest numbers but we have to get the last numbers both QIN and NT to get a clear picture. Chinook numbers look to be down across the board.

The river is in shape now but it is going to blow again with the next two days rain. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi After that event all should drop quickly https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ over seven days. Fall fishing is done in a day or so and it will be winter mode from this rain out.

We get a really good high flow and all the fish that spawned in the low-flow period in or near the thalweg will be toast.

I was asked how this years return differed from 2021 wild Coho and I have zero idea. I have asked several times for 2921 numbers and was told there is a data problem. In other words the 2021 wild salmon numbers are not available, go figure.

No idea on the spawners CM and it would be only Chinook that could be at risk. It takes darn near a hundred year flow to cause much havoc with redds.

If it was real dry when they spawned, in low flows, then the thalweg runs right through it. For wild Skagit Chinook I seem to recall a pretty good inverse relationship between flows and fry production the next spring.

Ya know, back in the Dark Ages before all those fancy computers we had run reconstruction, which included escapements, by late December/early January. I was starting to explore what update models would work in Feb?March using data that included the previous year.

Hell, WDG used to publish publicly the rec catch of steelhead in the fall before the next season got started. Used to.

Well it is Mudville in tidewater but the tribs and Chehalis will clear fast. As always for the lower Chehalis the mainstem clears much slower but the flows on both the Olympic side and upper basin are looking to drop below average flows this day/month. This flow cycle will not continue all that far down the road as once the ground soaks up the rapid up and down flows will be history.

So stay right with fishing as your about to have a week or so of perfect water.

A gentlemen e-mailed me asking why the Chinook escapement was lowered in Grays Harbor? Well below is a boiled down bit I was provided sometime back. He followed up with then why does the WDFW harvest model predict a Chehalis 8801 W Chinook escapement ( which is below goal ) yet the QIN where to harvest 3566 combined H&W?

Another point he made was looking at the way the 2022 seasons played out is that the QIN are using the combined projected 2022 Chinook natural spawners of 10207 and WDFW only unclipped wild spawners of 8801. I have e-mailed staff for clarification but I do believe he got it right.

It appears the QIN ( and others also ) are counting natural Chinook spawners one way and WDFW another which results in the Non Treaty fishers baring the brunt of conservation that only WDFW identifies as an issue.




Grays Harbor Fall Chinook

Grays Harbor fall Chinook spawner escapement goal was reevaluated and changed in 2014. The new natural spawning escapement goal is 13,500 naturally spawning Chinook for Grays Harbor with 9,880 for Chehalis River and 3,620 for Humptulips River.

The Grays Harbor fall Chinook spawner escapement goal was 14,600, 12,364 Chehalis River and 2,236 Humptulips River. This goal was adopted in 1979 and was based on available spawning habitat and a spawning density of 36 fish per mile. A level of 24 fish per mile was used for the mainstem Chehalis River and all tributaries upstream of Cedar Creek, reflecting lower productive potential. This goal is defined as a natural spawning escapement goal.

The Chinook Technical Committee (CTC) is to review the biological basis for Chinook salmon management objectives under the Pacific Salmon Treaty (PSC, 2009), Chapter 3, Section 2. (b) (iv), The CTC shall “…evaluate and review existing escapement objectives that fishery management agencies have set for Chinook stocks subject to this Chapter for consistency with MSY or other agreed biologically-based escapement goals and, where needed, recommend goals for naturally spawning Chinook stocks that are consistent with the intent of this Chapter…”. The abundance-based management regime for Chinook salmon established by the 2008 Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) is intended to sustain production at levels associated with maximum sustained yield (MSY, measured in terms of adult equivalents) over the long term. Therefore, the escapement goal for Grays Harbor fall Chinook was reevaluated based on spawner recruitment analysis.

The reevaluation of the Grays Harbor fall Chinook spawner escapement goal occurred in 2014. Three spawner-recruit functions were considered (Shepherd, Beverton-Holt, Ricker), and the Ricker model was identified as being the most appropriate form for both the Chehalis and Humptulips datasets. Brood years 1986 to 2005 were used in the analyses. In all analyses, parent generation escapement (i.e., spawners) includes both natural- and hatchery-origin fish spawning naturally. Spawner recruitment, biological based natural spawning escapement goals were developed for Chehalis and Humptulips rivers. Based on the Ricker analysis model, a Chehalis River fall Chinook natural spawning escapement goal of 9,880 was proposed and 3,620 for the Humptulips River. A harbor-wide natural spawning escapement goal of 13,500 was proposed.

On March 18, 2015 posted in the Federal Register Vol. 80, No. 52, NMFS proposes updates to management reference point values for Grays Harbor fall Chinook as recommended By the Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) for use in developing annual management measures beginning in 2015. These management reference point values are conservation objectives to provide necessary guidance for fisheries management within the guidance of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act.


There are four management reference points established in Federal Register V. 80:
1. 13,326 natural area spawners for Grays Harbor (9,753 Chehalis, 3,573 Humptulips) goals.
2. Smsy 13,326 natural area spawners.
3. Maximum Fishery Mortality Threshold (MFMT, generally equal to FMSY), total exploitation rate of 63%. Management all fishery exploitation to 63% or less.
4. Minimum Stock Size Threshold (MSST, Smsy * 0.5), 6,663 natural area spawners (13,326 * 0.5 = 6,663. If natural area spawners drop below 6,663, stock considered “over fished”.

The crime in all of this is intentionally managing for a 63% exploitation rate. Dum'fuckery at its finest.

What used to be....

https://www.ifish.net/cdn-cgi/image/form...23-jpeg.993790/

The NT harvest compared to the Grays Harbor North of Falcon model harvest is really interesting. Chum came in at 126% of the model but Coho came in at 61% and Chinook came in at 1.9%. I do not know what the correct interpretation is but it looks like the Chinook are in trouble.
Another observation for me was that I usually catch about 85% wild Coho but this year it was more like 15% wilds. Makes me wonder if the wild Coho are in trouble also.

Over a six week period in the estuary, it started with boat limits of a nice grade of predominantly hatchery coho. By the end, it was largely nothing but small wild runts of 5 to 6 pounds. Fishing literally fell off a cliff the last 4 days

Last time I fished one of the tribs (about 4 days ago) we were running into predominantly wild fish. Unfortunately we couldn’t buy a hatchery fish on that specific day. Will be interesting to see how far beyond 30k it’ll go for hatchery fish.

Jives with what I've seen on the tribs. Lots of chums and a decent number of average-size coho in the tribs last week; this week, it's almost all chum. Consistent with the typical transition between the A and B coho runs, but whether the B run shows remains to be seen....