Short and sweet, fishing stinks. The access road from the nuke site is locked requiring a good walk for a couple of miles making life difficult for the bank fisherman. Seems work down around the pump houses is going to be done. After that some jacks are being caught above South Monte but it is very spotty from few caught to zip next day. Some Chinook hanging out but they do not seem to be going anywhere at least that anyone sees but they do prefer darkness when moving. What is around are some rather large sturgeon that do like to go straight in the air and fall over like a tree. It is like the river is stuck where it is whatever that is and everything is in a waiting mode. I have seen this before during the dry years of 90 to 93 and the year Steve shut things down.

I am told the Humptulips is experiencing a similar pattern for fresh fish moving in stream from the bay. I am sure if your in the right spot at the right time you can get something. It is the finding the right spot / time that is a bitch.

A little more and we have some rain / showers coming in. NOAA river forecast has a flow increase at Porter of about 87 cfs around the 20th of the month. With most of the tribs hanging out a bit below average flows but above record lows with the Chehalis at Doty closer to the record low flow bit.

Not much to cheer about but combined with lower air temperatures hopefully the river water temps come down and that would be helpful.

i hung out at the south aberdeen boat launch this morning for awhile.

didnt see anything moving.. no jumpers or anything. not good!!

Thought this article is one some will find interesting. I think the no show salmon has a lot of grumbling going on which greases the conversation track which in this case is the newspaper.

Solid salmon return numbers forecast for next several weeks in Grays Harbor
The robust forecast comes after several lean years for the fish.

By Michael S. Lockett • September 10, 2022 2:30 am
Tags: Fishing, Local News, Outdoors and Recreation
A healthy year for coho salmon is predicted for 2022, as fish start returning to Grays Harbor in late September and early October to spawn. (Michael S. Lockett | The Daily World)
A healthy year for coho salmon is predicted for 2022, as fish start returning to Grays Harbor in late September and early October to spawn. (Michael S. Lockett | The Daily World)
Cooler water in the Pacific Ocean leading to rebounding fish numbers means a healthy harvest of coho salmon this year, said state and tribal fisheries officials.

The fish benefited from La Nina conditions out at sea.

“The coho returns this year at Grays Harbor is one of the biggest ones we’re expecting in a long time,” said Mark Baltzell, lead for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Salmon and Steelhead Fisheries Management. “In general, we can chalk it up to good freshwater conditions and good ocean conditions when those fish went out.”

The coho and other fish have had a few rough years of low numbers, Baltzell said, with El Nino conditions raising temperatures and reducing food sources. While this year is expected to be good, Baltzell said, without dam systems to gauge the number of fish going upriver, it’s difficult to make mid-season assessments of what the reality is on the ground.

“Those fish should be in the system in October. We should have some good fishing in the Chehalis in October through November,” Baltzell said. “We co-manage the species with the treaty tribes. It’s a little different for each river system.”

Co-management

That co-management with the Treaty Tribes, such as the Quinault Indian Nation in Grays Harbor, is hashed out each year in what’s called the North of Falcon process, referring to all the fisheries north of Cape Falcon in Oregon, said WDFW district fisheries biologist Mike Scharpf.


“The state and the tribe will put together fisheries for the federal government,” Scharpf said, speaking of the general process. “They get together to forecast the abundance of salmon.”

The state and tribal organizations involved get together each spring to plan out each year’s fishery schedules, said Ed Johnston, a fisheries policy spokesperson for the Quinault Indian Nation. WDFW also works with the Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, who, while not a Treaty Tribe, have fishing rights on their reservation, Scharpf said.

Forecasting involves a number of factors, including historical data, trends, ocean conditions and other factors, Scharpf said.

“​​We have a good resource. The forecasting for the last couple of years is showing us we’re making gains the last couple years,” Johnstone said. “The ocean has been cooler the last couple of years.”

The modeling is only as good as the data fed into it.

“We can try to fit as much information into any one of these things,” Baltzell said. “But their ability to predict the future is always limited.”

Accurately forecasting the fish returns relies on keeping abreast of a vast array of factors.

“We don’t have to look very far to see there’s a lot of change happening in the natural environment. Sometimes we’re a little slow to catch up on the effects on fish,” Baltzell said. “We have conversations about it all the time both internally and with our tribal co-managers.”


Rain is key

While there’s a good return forecast, Johnstone said he hoped that the region would get some good hard rain to bring the fish the last few steps home to spawn.

“All signs are positive. When we get that rain, which we will, we’ll have fish and everyone will be happy,” Johnstone said. “I would imagine we need a good 2 or 3 inches to see a real significant move.”

Fresh rain in the water systems helps to bring the fish the final distance to their spawning grounds, Johnstone said.

“Rain moves them through the system. When they smell rain, that charges them up,” Johnstone said. “They’re heading for the spawning grounds in these creeks. They’re looking for a habitat that’s suitable for them to spawn in.”

Baltzell said the attitude toward next year is one of cautious optimism.

“Every year is different. I think there’s a certain amount of optimism for this year and heading into next year that we’ve kind of dodged the bullet on ocean conditions,” Baltzell said. “It looks like another La Nina year — that means more upwelling, more food for fish migrating.”

Update bad news fishing stinks unless you like Pikers! Some spurts of Chinook adults but few adult Coho or Jacks be they Chinook or Coho. Good news I have been told upper tide water temperature is 61 degrees but middle tide water it is all over just depends if your at cooler low tide or in between or high tide as the water temperature is all over but dropping.

Ten day forecast https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi has lost any forecasted rain in the next ten days. Also we are looking at a flat line for flows https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ below average but Sept average is up because in some years we get rain which brings up the paper average over years. Looking at our flows from a fishing point of view we are about average minus a Sept rain.

The waiting game continues.

So fishing has picked up. Water temp is 64 and change at tidewater with 61 upstream. I am told bay is doing OK and the fish are moving up in tide water but they ain't in a hurry. They also appear to be in schools and with the very soft tides the fish are simply moving up and left and right and down which means just wandering around. If you find a bunch stay with them because they are not heavy biters. Most caught inriver are scales not set, very bright, and not hitting hard. Bloody pikers are hitting harder than the salmon.

Bottom end fished pretty good right around low water tide change. Get ready.

Fish update the Coho Jacks are above South Monte and finally in good numbers the last few days. Now adults in the bay has been rather good but as you go up river lots of jumpers everywhere but lock jawed with 63 degree water. Cosy boat launch was on fire this morning ( finally )`but the farther you go upstream things degrade. Today was the first day I have had adults that I can see in the channel in front of the house. Oh all chrome bright and most have sea lice.

Other side of the coin is the Chinook / Coho mix is way off. Chinook are just not showing in tide water in the manner they have the last 10 years. No idea but for the forecast we have it is odd!

NWFRC showing a slight bump for rivers on the 29th. Haywire Ridge showing precipitation around 3/4 of an inch as well.

Ain’t much but hopefully enough to get things moving in the slightest. Whoever provided the rain dance last year to give us a big shot right before the Oct 1st opener must’ve forgot their dancing shoes this year.

I don't think we need (or necessarily want) a huge soaker; just enough to cool the tribs down a couple degrees. I'm hopeful the rain this week will get things moving. Should be good timing, too, with the nets coming out of the Chehalis Wednesday morning.

Fingers crossed....

For sure. No doubt we’ll have plenty of it in November.

The NT Com will fish Wen afternoon when the QIN pull to 7 PM. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi looks to be centered on the Olympics but enough to get a small bump on Satsop as the river forecast changed this morning. At Porter the Chehalis gets about a 250 cfs jump Oct. 1st which will get down to tidewater early the 3rd. I am struggling to figure out the Satsop but it is about how fast it comes down as much as how much. Anything to get the water below 60 degrees would be nice.

Now that QIN fishers are in it is a good time to reflect on just what happened. Jack fishing was spotty until Sept and even then the first two weeks of Sept were nothing to write home about. Then things changed around the 15th big time is an understatement. To put things in perspective the bay was just great fishing with Coho streaming through and those who know how to fish the bay cleaned up! Now upriver in tidewater it was different to say the least. The river was a series of very soft hold over tides and the fish started building up below Cosy and after a couple of days the build up turned into what I call a mob! The mob was stuck in about a mile half or so stretch of the river and just slowly moved upstream. We had fish coming into the mob and fish moving up out of the mob but the mob just slowly went upstream. It was more like fishing in a lake than a river.

Saturday morning the 25th the bottom end of the mob was at Higgins Island and when tide changed to incoming it was a stampede as fish just stormed out of the channel and river screaming upstream. How far up they went no idea but for sure there is a lot of fish above South Monte but biters I am not sure of. I have not come into contact with a Coho with scales set, about half had sea lice, and about 50/50 hatchery wild mix. Despite a slow start the are a ton of Coho Jacks in the river and I mean a ton way way past normal and this is good. Now the bad, the Chinook numbers appear to be well below normal based upon encounters. Could be water conditions or anything but in tidewater Chinook are not present in numbers that the preseason forecast anticipated.

Now Coho, here is the thing it was a aerial circus where the mob was with Coho airborne all over the place. It got to the point that it was simply amazing to watch! Now the bad if you got the fish at the right time it was lights out but if not you just watched jumping fish. Clear water and at the end of a retrieve one could see one, two or more Coho just following your gear to the boat. To say this was frustrating would be and understatement of epic proportions! It was also entertaining as I watched George fishing near me and I swear he had Coho jumping all around his boat to the point I yelled just stick your net out and wait for one to jump into it! I thought the old guy was going to have a stroke! He finally got one hooked about 3 ft from the boat and George is as good fisher in tidewater as it gets.

It also got crazy out as anything that could float was on the river which is good but folks got a bit frustrated watching jumping fish and if you got a fish on lord did you draw a crowd! I watched 3 boats fishing the point as I was anchored taking a break and it was tight quarters for them but they did a V which impressed me. Then this boat came screaming by me saw them get a fish on and slowed down dropped his gear and trolled right through the V. Well that started a discussion to be sure and when I heard the words “you don’t own the river” I figured the jig was up then things settled down. It was not 10 minutes later that the boat at the top of the V hooked a fish that by its behavior was a Chinook and it did the power run left and power run right several times then made the turn right under his boat headed for deep water. Things went South again as that guy trolling had come back and literally trolled right over that guy’s line with a fish on! It went down hill from there as all three boats surrounded that troller and I exited as they sorted things out.

So it is a little strange out to be sure so everyone be prepared to be irritated more than once in a day but we have a good run and folks want to catch a fish! Us who fish a lot are just going to have to be tolerant but lord grant me patience comes to mind.

From this point on in tidewater we will fish upon only what is swimming upstream that day as the QIN and NT commercials will prevent any major build up. This morning I have yet to see a fish of any size jump which is normal with the nets in. Tidewater fishing is going to be Thursday through Sunday noon from this point on and anything to get the water temperature down would help.

It is raining this morning but the largest amount forecasted is half inch so we will see what happens and the NOAA update.

That said several of us have been doing just how big was the "mob" push? Good question but it was not small to be sure. What I am sure of it was large and in the thousands. A retired bio who is rather good at this thing is placing his pool money on the mob was the better part of 25% to 30% of the Coho run based upon the forecast. Then he throws this in the mix, hatchery Coho are modeled to be around 37% of the Coho run and the catch so far among us is around 50 / 50 H&W.

After that the fun starts as we fire e mails back and forth in the debate! Was it the front end of the run with increasing numbers for several weeks or was it the front part of the run ( end Sept first 10 days Oct ) early and the run will be slow to fill back in the time line?

When we see the QIN numbers we will begin to see just what the real deal is but my 10 bucks in the pool is on this was the front 1/3 of the run. The first week or two of Oct bump up will be smaller than thought or in other words we will have steady flow of fish but nothing like the "mob".

To my old neighbors in East County.........enjoy this doesn't happen all that often.

One more little detail. Of the hens we have caught the eggs are far more down the road in development for spawning than normal for this point and time of the run. Having spawned thousands of Coho I would guess that many were 60% plus or a bit higher needed to be able to spawn. Now that is a bit unusual to be sure.

Also the hatchery forecast includes Skook Mit Coho which are late timed as is a portion of Bingham's productions which makes our 50 50 split H & W at this moment somewhat puzzling.

Well it is Sunday and the QIN go in at noon so it is safe to post something up. Some of us wondered if the large movement of Coho the last two weeks of Sept would continue and in a word nope. It appears that the movement was simply the front of the run coming in mass and not a steady flow as that would mean a huge run size we have not seen, ever!

Think of a graph that starts and numbers of Coho increase by week, then peak, and decrease by week. Now it is the last two weeks of September and go forward in graph weeks to the first two weeks of October and take those fish and bunch them up in earlier September weeks and you have a bubble of fish returning. What is lending credence to this line of thought is how the numbers of fish moving has dropped substantially. So minus a rain event just how far into the normal weeks on the graph did the fish do? No idea but it was a bit of October’s fish to be sure and my 10 spot in the pool is a couple of weeks.

We have had fish moving the last few days but the numbers are more like what gets above commercial nets rather than a net free river with fish on the move. Add to the mix is this has been the worst case of fish with lock jaw I can remember in tidewater.

This is an interesting tid bit. I talked to a QIN fishing and first day in Coho in good numbers but next day not as good but that night they got a bunch of Chinook 15 to 18 lbs. In total they thought they did okay but nothing like they thought they would as the “mob” of fish that had filled tidewater for the better part of two weeks moved Saturday before they went in. Lucky for us Rec’s inland to be sure.

The set that NT Commercials had for 7 hours got them 1174 Coho and the QIN numbers are not up. For 7 hours that is OK but the numbers we have seen fishing since then do not indicate those numbers continued. Then one has to think lock jaw and the answer to the question of what fish are moving is rather impossible arrive at.

Going forward bottom line is above the QIN fishers inland one should not expect to see a lot of fresh fish but some numbers, bay should be OK, and tidewater below South Monte will suck until next Thursday at the least.

have information from a good source that over 50 were caught this morning behind Walmart...

they also should be removing their anchor lines when not in use, its a navigational hazard..

Ah struggling here as 9:30 AM posting is 2 1/2 hours before the QIN started unless something has changed we are all unaware of.

Bottom end is still fishing well Saturday/sunday. Few more kings than last week too.

if you are struggling, change bait and or presentation...

another stupid thing is that the tribes and commercials from the netting info allows them to keep hatchery chinook, yet i had to let loose a 21 and 25+ pound king last week, and another one that was larger was also released...

as long as Inslee is governor, your fisheries will continue to decline, like they have, until there is nothing left...