Well, bummer. Another year, another emergency reduction/closure. It might be time to accept that our habitats and climates are no longer conducive to large runs of anadromous fish and plan open ocean fisheries accordingly....

It started great for me (early rain is great for the bank-bound), and realistically, I've enjoyed some of the best fishing I've experienced in years in the tribs all season, but I can see that the numbers are fading out; fewer and fewer fresh fish around as the season progresses.

One (potential) silver lining is that some of the tribs are still slated to be open in December. I fully expect that to be the next change (watch for it as December nears), but at least for now, there is some opportunity for late coho and early steelhead on the books. Trouble is, with the Satsop closed and nothing much else available to Puget Sounders, if those tribs remain open, the hordes will descend on what rivers remain open, putting additional pressures on wild runs that aren't doing very well to begin with....

It's probably safe to plan on November 30 being the last day of fishing in 2023 for Grays Harbor, but as always, I hope I'm wrong....

It will be interesting to see what the returns are after the high water and no netting.

I doubt that QIN shut down in Nov because they were over quota

I doubt that the numbers, especially as allied to the Tribes but maybe even the NT-Commercials, are actually "quotas". They are estimated of catches based on a fixed schedule of fishing days. I think that that important aspect, now, is "days on the water" rather than a fixed catch number.

I believe this grew out of Hoh V Baldridge and co-mnanagement agreements.

Yeah... word on the river (and in this thread) was QIN effort was low and catches not great (until the chums showed, anyway). Seems unlikely they exceeded any catch goals.

I went fishing yesterday in a spot that should have had at least a few fresh coho on the heels of the last rain event. Saw some fresh chums, but the only silvers around were fire trucks (decent biters and beautiful colors, but not exactly what we're looking for). Things do seem to be slowing down. Lots of boats on the Satsop yesterday for a Wednesday. Also lots of water, so I opted to go elsewhere, but I'd be interested to know if that was any better....

First time I have read Hoh vs Baldridge. Some interesting history and numbers from the 70's/80's. "Findings of Fact" paragragh #9 on, very informative.
https://www.courtlistener.com/opinion/1519498/hoh-indian-tribe-v-baldrige/

Total adult coho returns to the hatcheries on the Satsop thru 11/6:

Bingham: 19,208 H 2562 W 21,313 surplused (H + W)

Satsop Springs: 1,500 H 1,443 surplused


Total: 22,756 surplused coho

1 adult coho/day limit??

It would do well for us to understand the history of how we got where we are. I never read HvB; I just understood the implications.

Those Satsop numbers are well above average for the past 10 years. Last year was an anomaly. Plus, the late run hasn't been counted yet. I also don't understand the reduction in the daily limit.

If you want to understand the problem, look at the number of hatchery returns versus wild. Wild stocks are the limiting factor, no matter how many hatchery fish get surplused. We're talking what... 5 to 1 H to W here?

From an angler (and Tribal) perspective, a harvestable fish is a harvestable fish. From a management perspective, only the high finners count. Not enough of those, and we end up on the couch.

theres almost 20k Coho back to Bingham, with 21,313 surplus, do the math on that...

the same thing happened with the low water on the Quillayute this year, the fish werent moving and were stacked up by Richwine, tribe came in, smacked the hell out of them, and they closed the rivers because not enough fish were back to the Sol Duc hatchery... they had their totes off the side of the road, so unless it was full of dead raccons, they had fish in them...

if you guys believe numbers from either side, i dont know what to tell you...

same thing with the Puyallup this year, they say there is 8600 back to the hatchery, yet i didnt encounter very many hatchery fish at all, maybe 20 out of 100+ landed...

almost seems like someone dumped a bunch of unclipped fish in the system, either that, or it was one of the best Coho years in over a decade, and we just get crapped on and left hanging...

It comes down to a very simple question. Do you see value in having large, ecologically relevant populations of wild anadromous fish in our rivers and streams or not? If the answer is "yes", then hatchery operations must constrained and better sited and operated, mixed stock fisheries have to be significantly reduced for the long-term, and habitat (quantity and quality) has to be restored and maintained.

If the answer is "no" then stock hatchery fish in as large of numbers as the ecosystem (including ocean) will support and fish to your heart's content.

I believe these are the only two viable choices as 100+ years of trying mixed management has just **cked the wild fish.

Couple of things missing from the conversation. First missing the QIN harvest numbers ( which WDFW says the QIN will not provide ) it is difficult to say exactly what is going on. That said the Satsop hatchery returns are around 1/3 of what was expected and wild mirrored them. It rained early and the Coho were up way early so both QIN and Nt fishers were well below expectations and bad prices brought commercial effort to a dead stop. The Chum came in strong but with reduuced effort how much is fish not taken in the commercial harvest is really a guess. With the rain up and down several times the Chehalis Basin has had the best freshwater conditions in many years. Fishing has and is good inland but that does not translate to large runsize but rather great conditions to fish and a fair amount of fish.

Always remember hatchery Coho are a bonus it is about the wild spawners period, put a fork in it, nothing else matters. Without QIN harvest numbers ( somebody should thank Ed Johnstone for that ) it is difficult to have a clear picture of what has and is happening. Frankly I would bet Chinook do not make escapement and 2 to 1 that Coho do not for the Chehalis Basin.

From what I have seen Chum came in at or above expectations. What was missing was the substantial number of Coho normaly present depending on what week of the year varies but for NT it is around 4 Coho to 5 Chum. For the QIN it is different but they hang out at at about the same in prime Chum weeks. The Chum were there but the Coho were not. Looking at harvest NT on Coho were 25% or so overall.

So you look at the hatchery returns which was supposed to be around 40k after QIN NT and Rec harvest one could say we have a problem. If the wild run mirrors the hatchery which it normally does and appears to be doing it is most likely we do not to make Chehalis Basin Coho escapement.

How many wild coho are spawning in the river and not being counted or collected at the hatchery? There is still most of November and all of December ( and into January) to go. Why not have a 2 adult hatchery coho/day limit with selective gear rules.

A fishery based on what data? WDFW is, or at least to, do daily spawner surveys in various parts of the watersheds. Perhaps 4 or 5 indexes a day, 5 days a week, by a 2 person crew. Or just one. These serve as the basis for run reconstruction which ultimately tells you what was there. I know that while I was managing I used the information from this daily surveys to provide more clarity to the updates.

For whatever reason, WDFW, QIN, and many other tribes have rather abandoned in-season management based on a pre-season plan. Unless there is strong evidence of different numbers they won't change.

In-season management is expensive; you need staff in the field to count spawners, to count catch. You need staff in the office to convert these numbers into updates. And as Rivrguy can tell you, the burden of conservation in real-time management falls on the last in line. Before HvB it was the Tribes, mostly. Now it is the freshwater sportie.

Given the poor numbers of wild spawners relative to goal, you can't kill any of them. Even now, with ESA, we still allowed wild endangered fish to be killed so we can kill hatchery fish. Nobody involved in the current management regime really wants wild fish (see what is happening to steelhead) because they prevent harvest of too many hatchery fish.

Tribe pulled nets, WDFW had to reduce the limit to keep dad off their back.

When the QIN decided to pull their nets (Oct. 27) and not fish in November, the writing was on the wall that the rec limit would be cut back. Pretty easy to predict. The tribe must have agreed to allow a 1 adult/day limit.

Some have asked about the 40K hatchery that was forecast. That number includes the Wishkah at Mayres, Aberdeen Lake, and Skookumchuck miitigation Coho and I do believe Bingham Lates. None of these are large smolt releases but added together are a substantial number. So yes one could say the the Satsop Hatchery Coho returns are looking to be around 50% of the forecast or maybe not. 2023 at present H Coho are at 19,208 and W 2562 which is down about 500 wild fish from 2022. All numbers for returns are after anticipated harvest and that is the thing. It is thought that QIN Coho numbers were way down and we know NT commercials were. So he hatchery returns we see include fish that should have been caught in commercial fisheries which makes 19,208 not exactly a great number. The 2023 anticipated QIN harvest of Coho in the first two weeks of November was 4810 with only 1985 being hatchery. So the Rec fishers with our good river conditions are getting a shot at fish tha normally would be harvested. Total runsize is another matter all together and that is why knowing the QIN harvest numbers matter for those who care about conservation and the fish.

The other question was the portionality of H&W in November. That always varies but years back WDF used run compression in an attempt to create a early timed Coho by taking all eggs as early in the run has possible. In more recent times this practice was ended but the hatchery Coho are still more in the earlier part of the run. So as we go through November the H /W ration ends up being dominated by the wild returns. Rain can mess this up by raining early or dry years move the fish to the later weeks of November and then we have fish do what fish do and that is never the same year to year.

Remember when the tribes only took enough fish to smoke for the winter?

Anecdotally, all 6 fish we saw Thursday were wild.