10/28/2021

jgreen, Rivrguy, Cassman, Swing, Slammer:

All good comments..."Time will tell"

My take, 100% of my September-October, has been in the area around the "Pump Houses", which is above South Montesano. So my fishing has been jacks and Hatchery Coho.

Jack fishing was good, if you had good eggs but that said was it like the "old days", 25-40 years ago, not from what I remember when hatchery Coho release numbers were MUCH greater.

Wild Coho adults FAR out number Hatchery Coho adult caught in my area of the river, now I don't have a exact ratio, but I'd guess it was 10 to 1, Wild over hatchery.

There was never a day when a boat with 2 or more people "limited the boat" with hatchery Coho, on my stretch of the river.......now are we the best fishermen around????? but we do have gear that has worked for years....AND WE ARE ON THE RIVER, LOT'S!!!!!!!

Sure hope rivers get fishable, quickly....

One hell of a jack count (5200) at Bingham with the adults at 5700. A lot of jacks this year.

we still had a good number of jacks down in the lower chehalis last week... still not many dogs-- hope there just late.

I noticed from the last week of September “trout” fishing until about the 10th of October on the satsop that it was the opposite. Many more clipped fished to unclipped. Then it turned around after that to mostly unclipped fish and lucky if you hit a decent looking clipped fish.

Those certainly aren’t 2014 numbers. I’m probably just a better fisherman now.

They're here...

Cowboys quick-reporting past 3 days:
4000 chum dominated the catch with about ~4 chum for every coho. Coupla kings retained.

Not sure how spawning chums behave when charging up such a short distance in the mud. Gonna be days before their preferred lower trib spawning sites clear up.

Tidewater Chehalis getting pummeled with nets Oct 31 thru Nov 10.

So much for 4/3.

There seems to be a difference between the QIN website showing days fishing and the WDFW website showing days fishing. NT appear to be consistent with what we know but the QIN season is different on the WDFW website. I have e mailed staff asking for clarification.

In the process WDFW had NT's in on the same day as QIN so evidently the disagreement has escalated.

I smell lotsa dead chum

word is 50 / 50 Chum Coho at present.

i saw NT boats heading towards pakonens..

wdfw site says noon today till 11:59 tonight.... 7:00 am to 7:00 pm 3rd..

tribe goes 4th through the 6th 7th -10th

so anyway u look at it, it's way to many days of nets!!! so much for any late coho

Mike has sent out the final model now that the QIN and State have agreed. I sent it out but if anyone wants it not on my list let me know and I will get it to you. The model shows days of weeks to be fished by both Nation and NT Commercials.

To be honest guys the harvest model is required reading to have an idea of schedule and impacts.

11/02/2021





Just as many Coho

I have the luxury of going to Pakonen's and watch the set net right West of the boat ramp. The past few days this set net seems to get quite a few fish. Are the fish all Chum, no there are many nice bright Coho, many are female.

The person "picking the net", yesterday was not cold, he had to move quickly because there were at least 3 sea lions just on the river side of the net. I saw no fish the sea lions got, from the net, but in the main part of the river both sea lions and sea gulls got their share.

I Thought I should add this, the number of commercial fishers decreases with the primary runs being upstream. Today one boat was not catching much and then disappeared. So a 4 day QIN or combination QIN / NT is not the same in November as October especially when it rains wayyyyyyy early like this year.

For those who do not care for the model it shows a couple of things. If all numbers are come true ( never happens ) the Chehalis Chinook 400 & change under escapement with QIN massively exceeding NT share. Now the other side of the coin with the Hump the NT's ( all ) will be ahead by 1400 or so. As nobody but WDFW separates the Chehalis and Hump for management and the QIN is entitled the court mandated GRAYS HARBOR the numbers projected have the QIN ahead by 355, we not meet GH Chinook escapement. Also remember ocean impacts of both tribal and state fishers count which probably means the QIN is within their share.

Also GH Coho will fall short but that is mostly due to the Hump Coho be under escaped for years and they will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Those new to the model a box turning red means below escapement or exceeding shares. A box turning green means above escapement.

Hope that helps you all.

A lot of discussion a on where are the hatchery fish so I did a C&P on that subject. Pay attention to the Bingham numbers for the rack returns as right now for this time of year Bingham is 600% more than last year. One last time, it RAINED EARLY not once but several times and nothing good comes from that.


You got the movement down. The hatchery Coho shot above the cut off lines for fishing and parked as it only takes a day on a small rise to get them above the Springs on the Satsop let alone blow out three times. Also the Skook Mit Coho are late returning as a portion of Bingham’s. So while the hatchery % looks OK on paper nearly half do not come back Sept through October but rather mid Nov through Dec. So again if it rains early let alone three times before the end of the first week of Oct the fish will move up rapidly and stage up out of the areas open for fishing. Those that stay lower simply stage go to hiding non biting mode which is how you get red fish mainstream.

The movements of Chinook were huge but moved up with the rain before the QIN landed on them but they still got a bunch. Coho seemed to be moving in school’s that were here one day gone the next. If you found a bunch of Coho they were sea lice & scales not set which translated means right out of the ocean and high speed nose down moving rapidly upstream and except for South Elma where they would stop for a bit but mostly ran right by Recs in a day. There was a two week window on the Satsop that those knowing the movement got into Coho when they slowed down but the rain took them above the fishing boundaries. Early rains like this year are not any help to any terminal fisher.

One final thing. Last year this time Bingham had 1700 Coho this year 5700 with 5000 jacks. At the end of Nov. 2020 Bingham had 6788 adult Coho and 3682 jacks. Not sure I want to take up a bet on run size for Coho but it is as he said because it rained early.

Hope this helps compare apples to apples.

We sporties really took it in the shorts when the opening date moved to October 1. Not always the case (as has been said, the rain came early this year), but it certainly was this year. I understand the reasons, so I'm not upset; maybe just whining a little.

I tried fly fishing the Lower Satsop in late September, mostly looking for anything that might bite (cutts/steelhead) and to get a feel for how the river had changed. I didn't catch any cutthroat or steelhead, but I did run into lots of chromey, bitey, mostly clipped coho and even a couple kings. This was great fun (best salmon angling I've ever experienced in WA), but it was a bit frustrating putting back all those hatchery fish, knowing they were more numerous than I had seen in recent years and that by the time they were open for harvest, most of the clipped ones would be way up the E. Fork. Like Rivrguy said, the lower river was still pretty good fishing for a couple weeks after the opener (if crowded), but the catch was easily 90% unclipped fish.

I've had a pretty good season overall in-river (as regards catching; most fish have had extra fins), but it could have been one for the ages had we had Sept. 16-30 this year. Oh, well. Anymore, a good day of C&R fishing is worth a lot, so I'm fairly satisfied. Those who place emphasis on harvesting fish are probably less pleased....

For those who believe in natural selection, consider that hatchery fish are harvested at high rates. Used to be over 90%, maybe still is. That means only 10% of the total return actually make it to the hatchery and of that ben less are spawned.

What do they spawn? What makes it back. The fish that didn't bite, the fish that blew through the net fisheries, the fish fish that swam through the nets (too small or too big), the fish that returned after fishing closed, and so on.

It should come as no surprise, especially in a high harvest situation, that what is left evolves to not get caught. That is why, in a lot of places, we have wild coho that spawn in January and February.

So doing the numbers game reported rack returns for Bingham Coho. As of Nov 4 6250 H & 1550 w. For 2020 same date it was 4250 h & 800 W. For the entire 2020 years returns Bingham had 6768 h & 1250 W. These numbers are for normal timed Coho and Dec 1 they close the books on normal timed Coho and report late Coho Dec 1 on.

So right now it looks like the 2021 returns are nearly 100% of the 2020 returns which lends credence to those who say the Coho run forecast was way off. Now the fun part anything returning in Nov will be past expectations but do not get carried away because a lot of Nov timed fish are up already because of the rain. Now my favorite number checker SB says the preseason forecast was way off ( short ) and it looks to be leaning his way. We got the rest of the month to see but it is trending his way. It is the wild Coho returns at Bingham that I use to gauge things be it only a snap shot and nothing solid.

Bottom line if the rack returns continue to perform only moderately to the plus side the 2021 forecast is going to be below the actual returns. If the returns continue to do well and the numbers continue to climb then the preseason forecast was way off and pretty much toast.

Three more weeks and we will know but being 300 ahead of 2020 with w at the rack now with that much time left it is is starting go from looks like the Coho over performed and the forecast is wayyyyyy off. Three more weeks and we will know.

im just asking a question.. why would wild fish go into the hatchery???

im sure they can get a stray once in a while but 1500+ ???