Got me thinking? My theory? I'm no scientist but have observed lots over the years. I think the demise is a bunch of stuff all at once. I killed many. I'm as guilty as anyone for killing wilds back then. It's what you did? I guess anglers have to progress slowly to learn and accept total C&R. That's what happened to me.
Ocean conditions must be a factor, because the whole west coast has had survival issues even with some great habitat available. Pop growth and the pollution that comes with it doesn't help.
Netting. Since 1974. Most early wild runs are gone because tribal commercial fisheries focused on the early returning hatchery fish and netted out the early wild strains. Steelhead cannot take commercial fisheries! I think the early hatchery fish do less damage than some spout. I think co-mingling has occurred, but not at the levels some promote. IMO the early Chambers fish were early enough to not threaten the later wilds, but provided great opportunity before Christmas. Today, state wide, very few of those early hatchery fish are available to target.
Predators. With all the above going on at the same time, the predators populations began to increase. I never saw Cormorants back in the 70's and 80's in the rivers like you see now. Same for seals. I do remember a seal made it up the Puyallup in the early 90's as far as the island below the Hwy 162 bridge outside of Sumner. It didn't last long there. Also, I watch to this day every spring, during the outward smolt migration, flocks of Cormorants that work the lower Puyallup and Green. They are not eating candy?
Cost. Hatchery Steelhead are expensive to raise. WDFW cost cutting, hatchery closures and terminated programs, has made less hatchery fish available, placing double pressure on the few programs that remain. These days it's tough to get a return on your investment. I do think the overall economics of fishing adds more $$ to the economy than folks think. Trying to educate state legislators about that is another story. Their priorities are in different places. WDFW has changed it's recreational management focus from a consumptive approach to the opposite. Nothing wrong with conservation, but currently the pendulum is way to far that direction. The WDFW "Dysfunction Report" that recently came out proves that! Steelheaders have always been a small but special part of the fishing community. Back when, in the WDG, employees were fishermen. They had a stake in producing Steelhead because they fished for them. I knew a few of them that fished and enjoyed Winter Steelhead. The populations that have come here the last 40 yrs care little about fishing, and the WDFW employees are not engaged in it like they used to be.
Instead of writing this, I should be fishing on a run of what's left of early Winter Steelhead. I have hope this season Steelhead numbers may follow better ocean conditions and some good salmon returns. I had fishing plans this week but mother nature put the kibosh on that. Not into the off work Christmas crowds. Maybe hit a small stream if a rain break happens. One thing for sure, Steelheading as we knew it is gone. Good Luck!