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#1029761 - 05/04/20 01:01 PM New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
The Moderator Offline
The Chosen One

Registered: 02/09/00
Posts: 13942
Loc: Tuleville
Thoughts on this, Evo?

Looks like Evo was right and this whole COVID-19 thing isn't that deadly after all.

Here's the copy/paste from the article:

"An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning"

What's in a model, right? It's just a model......

This COVID-19 thing is just a cold, right Evo?
_________________________
Tule King Paker

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#1029764 - 05/04/20 01:18 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
NickD90 Offline
Shooting Instructor for hire

Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7204
Loc: Snohomish, WA
Something like *~60K flu deaths last year in the US (*roughly and my own aggregated estimate from multiple different sources).

So a little over twice as deadly give or take.

Yeah, it's worse than the flu, but it's also better numbers than the doom and gloom of 2 months ago. 2 months ago, we were all going to die. We still are, just maybe not all at once.
_________________________
“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02

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#1029767 - 05/04/20 01:47 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
DCC Offline
The Walnut

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1303
I gave up on it a while back, now it's back to biz as usual, the silver lining in this makes being anti-social socially acceptable.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWCKjrvpXuY

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#1029769 - 05/04/20 01:53 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
Todd Offline
Dick Nipples

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27838
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.

It's already killed many more, in a far shorter time, with social distancing and quarantining in place.

Fish on...

Todd
_________________________


Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle


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#1029770 - 05/04/20 02:32 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
Bent Metal Offline
Carcass

Registered: 01/09/14
Posts: 2298
Loc: Sky River(WA) Clearwater(Id)
It's no different than the flu, and everyone knows that drinking copious amounts of alcohol prevents and cures Covid-19 rofl
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#1029773 - 05/04/20 04:22 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: DCC]
RabidAngler
Unregistered


Originally Posted By: DCC
the silver lining in this makes being anti-social socially acceptable.

It's really been working out well for me. The 6 feet thing is great. I despise shaking hands.

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#1029778 - 05/04/20 05:30 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
ondarvr Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 09/07/05
Posts: 1867
Loc: Spokane WA
There is a difference in how flue and C19 deaths are counted

With C19 it’s been the actual confirmed positive deaths.

The flue counts confirmed positive deaths, then uses an algorithm to estimate a total number. The confirmed positive deaths are in the 5,000 range.

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#1029779 - 05/04/20 05:38 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: Todd]
FleaFlickr02 Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3343
Originally Posted By: Todd
If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.



That was solid... But you already knew that.

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#1029781 - 05/04/20 06:54 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: ondarvr]
Todd Offline
Dick Nipples

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27838
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
Originally Posted By: FleaFlickr02
Originally Posted By: Todd
If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.



That was solid... But you already knew that.


Thanks smile

Originally Posted By: ondarvr
There is a difference in how flue and C19 deaths are counted

With C19 it’s been the actual confirmed positive deaths.

The flue counts confirmed positive deaths, then uses an algorithm to estimate a total number. The confirmed positive deaths are in the 5,000 range.


This is true...and in spite of the conspiracy kooks who say otherwise, two things are also true about this:

1. We probably greatly overestimate the amount of deaths caused by seasonal influenza, and

2. We are definitely underestimating the amount of deaths caused by Covid-19.

Fish on...

Todd
_________________________


Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle


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#1029782 - 05/04/20 06:54 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: FleaFlickr02]
fish4brains Offline
Dah Rivah Stinkah Pink Mastah

Registered: 08/23/06
Posts: 6209
Loc: zipper
Everyone needs a nurse when they're sick


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...
Propping up an obsolete fishing industry at the expense of sound fisheries management is irresponsible. -Sg



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#1029975 - 05/09/20 09:18 PM Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo? [Re: The Moderator]
Excitable Bob Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 03/13/07
Posts: 401
Loc: fuctifino
_________________________
She sits on the dock a fishin' in the water uh, huh
I don't know her name she's the fisherman's daughter uh, huh
Come on down to my boat baby
Come on down where we can play
Come on down to my boat baby
Come on down we'll sail away.

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