#1029761 - 05/04/20 01:01 PM
New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
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The Chosen One
Registered: 02/09/00
Posts: 13942
Loc: Tuleville
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Thoughts on this, Evo?
Looks like Evo was right and this whole COVID-19 thing isn't that deadly after all.
Here's the copy/paste from the article:
"An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning"
What's in a model, right? It's just a model......
This COVID-19 thing is just a cold, right Evo?
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Tule King Paker
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#1029764 - 05/04/20 01:18 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: The Moderator]
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Shooting Instructor for hire
Registered: 10/26/10
Posts: 7204
Loc: Snohomish, WA
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Something like *~60K flu deaths last year in the US (*roughly and my own aggregated estimate from multiple different sources).
So a little over twice as deadly give or take.
Yeah, it's worse than the flu, but it's also better numbers than the doom and gloom of 2 months ago. 2 months ago, we were all going to die. We still are, just maybe not all at once.
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“If the military were fighting for our freedom, they would be storming Capitol Hill”. – FleaFlickr02
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#1029769 - 05/04/20 01:53 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: The Moderator]
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Dick Nipples
Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27838
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
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If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.
It's already killed many more, in a far shorter time, with social distancing and quarantining in place.
Fish on...
Todd
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Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle
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#1029773 - 05/04/20 04:22 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: DCC]
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RabidAngler
Unregistered
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the silver lining in this makes being anti-social socially acceptable.
It's really been working out well for me. The 6 feet thing is great. I despise shaking hands.
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#1029778 - 05/04/20 05:30 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: The Moderator]
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Three Time Spawner
Registered: 09/07/05
Posts: 1867
Loc: Spokane WA
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There is a difference in how flue and C19 deaths are counted
With C19 it’s been the actual confirmed positive deaths.
The flue counts confirmed positive deaths, then uses an algorithm to estimate a total number. The confirmed positive deaths are in the 5,000 range.
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#1029779 - 05/04/20 05:38 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: Todd]
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River Nutrients
Registered: 10/28/09
Posts: 3343
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If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.
That was solid... But you already knew that.
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#1029781 - 05/04/20 06:54 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: ondarvr]
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Dick Nipples
Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 27838
Loc: Seattle, Washington USA
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If you are comparing this to the flu, you should start comparing your head to your ass, too. They are roughly the same shape, and full of the same thing.
That was solid... But you already knew that. Thanks There is a difference in how flue and C19 deaths are counted
With C19 it’s been the actual confirmed positive deaths.
The flue counts confirmed positive deaths, then uses an algorithm to estimate a total number. The confirmed positive deaths are in the 5,000 range. This is true...and in spite of the conspiracy kooks who say otherwise, two things are also true about this: 1. We probably greatly overestimate the amount of deaths caused by seasonal influenza, and 2. We are definitely underestimating the amount of deaths caused by Covid-19. Fish on... Todd
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Team Flying Super Ditch Pickle
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#1029782 - 05/04/20 06:54 PM
Re: New COVID-19 Model - Thoughts Evo?
[Re: FleaFlickr02]
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Dah Rivah Stinkah Pink Mastah
Registered: 08/23/06
Posts: 6209
Loc: zipper
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... Propping up an obsolete fishing industry at the expense of sound fisheries management is irresponsible. -Sg
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