Confrontation With Iran
Allan Topol | July 27, 2006
The war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is intense and serious. It is also a side-show for Hezbollah's puppeteers in Iran. Most analysts agree that the timing of Hezbollah's attack on Israel was dictated in significant part by the state of discussions between Tehran and the rest of the world on Iranian nuclear weapons. This diversionary tactic should not be permitted to work. At the same time that the United States is seeking to reach a sensible conclusion to the fighting, the U.S. must resume its efforts to organize other nations in heading off the Iranian nuclear program.

Prior to Hezbollah's kidnapping and murder of Israeli soldiers manning a border position, the U.S. had led the rest of the world in offering Tehran significant economic benefits in return for the abandonment of its nuclear weapons program. At first the Iranian government stalled, claiming that it needed more time to respond. When Tehran finally did respond, the answer was an unambiguous “no.” This left the next move up to the United States.

The American strategy, with the support of England, France and Germany, was to attempt to persuade Russia and China to back a UN resolution with strong sanctions that would block Iran's nuclear weapons development. Not surprisingly, all of those discussions halted once the fighting began on the Israeli-Lebanese border. There is no doubt that Tehran is hoping that the United States, concerned about the Lebanese-Israeli crisis, will indefinitely defer dealing with the issue of nuclear weapons for Iran. Tehran would like the nuclear issue to disappear behind a haze of smoke being generated from the war. They should not be permitted to succeed.

The Hezbollah attack against Israel does not leave the nuclear issue in its status quo. Rather, this fighting underscores the urgency for the United States to confront Iran on the nuclear issue. Hezbollah is a pawn of Tehran, who is dictating the state of war. Not only does Hezbollah have Iranian weapons and Iranian troops on the ground in Southern Lebanon, but the Iranian foreign minister stopped in Beirut two days before Hezbollah launched its initial attack.

Hezbollah has demonstrated a willingness to use all of the weapons and rockets in its sophisticated Iranian-supplied arsenal against civilian targets in Israel. If Hezbollah had nuclear weapons, they might be using those as well.

The threat is far more serious than one that involves Israel and Hezbollah. If the Iranians had nuclear weapons, they could supply those to terrorist organizations operating anywhere in the world. They could then be used against targets in the United States or Western Europe.

In addition, Iran itself would be able to launch nuclear weapons from its own country against Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-dominated Arab governments in the Persian Gulf. They might be willing to do this in support of a Shiite uprising in Saudi Arabia or one of the other oil rich Persian Gulf nations as part of an effort to have Shiites achieve dominance over their hated Sunni enemies. This is precisely why Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and other Sunni-dominated Arab governments have been reluctant to criticize Israel.

The war between Israel and Hezbollah underscores the urgency of making certain that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. What the current crisis demonstrates is that the Iranians are willing to use all the weapons in their arsenal against civilian targets. They cannot be permitted to add nuclear weapons.

Hopefully, China and Russia, who were the laggards on dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue, will understand the potential implications and take a more active role with the United States in confronting Tehran. Both of those nations are dealing with militant Muslim minorities. Both of those nations are far closer to Iran than the United States, and must realize that they are potentially at risk from Iranian nuclear weapons. Likewise, the Western Europeans have to be concerned that Iranian weapons, armed with nuclear warheads, would be able to reach Paris or Berlin.

In short, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah adds a new urgency to the Iranian nuclear issue. To be sure, the Bush administration is heavily focused on Iraq as well as the crisis between Israel and Hezbollah. At the same time, the administration must immediately pick up the ball and start coalescing a consensus to deal with Iran on nuclear weapons. Each day that we delay is one more day that Iran makes progress in its weapons program. What the current crisis establishes is that Iranian success in this venture is too horrible to contemplate

I agree with the author. I little faith this administration can get it right.