There will definitely be a season set when they meet on monday (look at WDFW home page for details), but you better be ready because it could be as little as one day! Hopefully after this weekends counts there will be sufficient numbers to set a longer season. Everyone pray for big numbers this weekend!

CM

1 day?

Wow, I'm speechless, all that hype.....for a one day season?

I could only imagine all the shops around town that have purchased a large amont of gear to sell to all the sportees for ..........a one day season.

I really hope that Phil Anderson at the WDFW was just getting a little a head of himself before making the quote below:

"As the counts stand today, recreational anglers would have a very brief fishery of perhaps just one day," said Phil Anderson WDFW special assistant to the director. "With additional time to review weekend fish count data from the locks, we are hopeful to shape a recreational fishery of longer duration."

Kev

Corrects date error in headline — remaining copy is OK

NEWS RELEASE

WASHINGTON DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND WILDLIFE
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, Washington 98501-1091
Internet Address: http://wdfw.wa.goJuly
July 9, 2004
Contact: Steve Thiesfeld, (360) 902-2715;

Or: Doug Williams, (360) 902-2256



Surplus Lake Washington sockeye available for fishers; Recreational seasons will be set after July 12 update


OLYMPIA – State and tribal salmon co-managers Friday afternoon agreed that the Lake Washington sockeye salmon return is large enough to allow for limited fisheries this summer.



While a brief commercial treaty Indian fishery is expected to occur Sunday evening, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) fisheries managers have decided to wait until Monday to review weekend fish counts at the Ballard Locks before determining the shape of this year’s recreational fishery.



“As the counts stand today, recreational anglers would have a very brief fishery of perhaps just one day,” said Phil Anderson WDFW special assistant to the director. “With additional time to review weekend fish count data from the locks, we are hopeful to shape a recreational fishery of longer duration.”



WDFW maintains a web page with updated information on the Lake Washington sockeye counts, at http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/sockeye/counts.htm on the Internet.

another post states that the tribe will have up to 200 baots on the lake and below the lock. grampas provided a pic of the tribes baots at the locks already. how can you count the fish if you net them before the locks??? let the fisherman have a week on the lake and then let the tribes net. that would please a lot more people and being that nets are more productive it will still allow the tribes to supply safe way. 200 net boats no wonder i cant catch any cutt throat.

I'm unhappy with the statement about the season possibly being only one day. In 2002, we had a three day season, and on that year on July 8th, there were 139,274 fish. This year on the 8th there are 214,217 fish. What criteria are these people using? Seems like harvest management biology has gone by the wayside in favor of political pandering. Why is a Special Assistant to the Director making statements and not a bio? I'm ranting because I want it to open so badly, so take this with a grain of salt!

I seem to recall that WDFW ws granted about $120K to cover the enforcement costs for this fishery. I wonder what they are going to do with than money if they only have a one day season!

Sounds like politics to me!!!

SA

The WDFW folks have gone to some good seminars to teach them how to manipulate the masses with PR.

First they cried from the roof tops that money wasn't available for any Sockeye season. All the hoopla that followed put pressure in the right places and money was found. So then we had the hype about the largest Sockeye return ever....perhaps 1,000,000 fish...then fish counts are behind schedule...(guess who counts)....now we have nets out already with the tribal opening this weekend....say 200 boats??? tons of fish will hit the decks....(who counts those?) So now WDFW stirs the PR pot by tossing out the one day doom and gloom to get everyone really stirred up and hot under the collar....So what is their strategy?

After the tribes harvest their "share" in the dark of night with no checkers standing by in comes the WDFW spokes person saying that after all the counts tallied it turns out that the sports people will get a big bonus....AN EXTRA DAY!!! TWO DAYS!!! NOT ONE!!! So you feel rewarded and privelaged because your season has just been doubled. Of course, we were originally sold many more days of potential fishing. Boy are we lucky or what?

Based on the numbers to date, and the fishery we had in 2002, it seems like we are lined up for a 3 day season at the minimum. I don't begrudge the Tribes their 50%, but we should definately get the other 50%.

So they plan to let everyone rip on the sockeye? I'm baffled that we aren't even that close to 350,000 and WDFW is ready to give in to the demand that there be a season this year. Are there sufficient reasons for biologists to believe that the escapement will be met after the fishery is over? Wouldn't it be wiser to open a season after the escapement is met, if it even will? And why the *beep* is there no enforcement of the tribal netters? Why do they get to net before the opening? I agree with starcraft tom, why can't the tribal netters have their season after we have ours?

Sorry, I just had to vent, feeling quite a bit about this whole fishy scenario.

Be prepared for a Monday announcement of a 3 day Lk. Wa. Sockeye fishery next weekend. Any less fishing would be a joke and not worth the tribes dragging all their boats out to take only 15,000 to 20,000 fish or so (based on a 15,000+ fish catch by sport anglers on the opening day in 2000). If we continue to have strong numbers the tribe and their WDFW whipping boy will announce further sport fishing and therefore the tribes will be able to net the locks for more of the freshest most valuable Safeway-bound fish. The tribe$ have a vested intere$t in making $ure the count$ are high. The 2000 season review has some good info....
http://www.wdfw.wa.gov/fish/sockeye/2000review.htm

Baselined by the 2003 run, we'll have no season (est. 310,000 run)
Baselined by the 2002 run, we get 80,000 fish to harvest (est. 510,000 run)
Basedlined by the 2001 run, we'll have no season (est. 290,000 run)
Basedlined by the 2000 run, we'll have no season (est. 280,000 run)

The average of the previous years' baselines indicate a 350,000 run.

I think it is bizarre that WDFW would say "State and tribal salmon co-managers Friday afternoon agreed that the Lake Washington sockeye salmon return is large enough to allow for limited fisheries this summer" followed by "As the counts stand today, recreational anglers would have a very brief fishery of perhaps just one day."

Huh??? That would require an incredible degree of precision in measuring the run, not only counting fish going over the locks, but knowing how many fish WILL go over the locks in the future. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, and I'm not politically savvy, but this really smacks of manipulation and backroom deal-making. Did you get the bit about a "very limited" tribal fishery on Sunday? The only way you could legitimize something like that would be to "decide" that the run will be big enough to allow harvest. Yet, it is clearly too early to know whether the run will be 280,000 (2000 baseline) or 510,000 (2002 baseline).

I dunno about you, but if they indeed have a 1-day sport season, I won't be within 20 miles of the Lake that day. It will be the Mother of all Goat-Ropes.

Finegrane - Um.. were did your info come from?

2000 = 414,976 fish

Can you clairify what you are talking about?

It's ratios junky.
Here is the prediction from the year 2000 scenario.

The total run size in year 2000 was 464,100.
The total count on July 8, 2000 was 308,415.
The total count on July 8, 2004 was 214,217.

To Calculate:
464,000 ÷ 308,415 = 1.50479 (the ratio of run size:count)
1.50479 x 214,217 = 322,352 (the 2004 run size at that ratio)

Another way:
214,217 ÷ 308,415 = .697504 (the ratio of 2004:2000 counts)
.697504 x 464,100 = 322,352 (the 2004 run size at that ratio)

If you knew the total run sizes from the other years you could duplicate the calculations for those years.

Finegrain had the right idea but was using the total count rather than the total run size.

Predictions by repeating the individual years scenarios are:
2000 - 322,352
2001 - 327,171
2002 - 668,338
2003 - 363,837

Obviously the year 2002 was a peculiarity.

By incorporating other trends and factors into the methodology my prediction formula indicates a final count of between 310,000 and 365,000 and a total run size of somewhere between 347,000 and 416,000 with the best guess at around 372,000.

If the counts keep coming in over 12,000 through the weekend the trend will push the estimate further towards the 416,000 level.

Um, can we open this one day fishery on Tuesday? I have that day off work. And I work next weekend...

I'm still holding out for lake Wenatchee...

On Friday, as noted above, I was predicting total run size of somewhere between 347,000 and 416,000 with the best guess at around 372,000.

The WDFW was predicting a range of 375,000 to 410,000 sockeye.


The returns for Fri-Sun were the best seen for those days in the last five years causing me to raise my guess by about 10,000 for a predicted return of somewhere between 357,000 and 426,000 with the best guess at around 382,000.

That is still only about 16,000 fish for the personal use fishery and 16,000 for the tribes.

It will be interesting to see what the comanagers decide.

I see what your doing Plunker. Thats some good work, I wouldn't think of it.

Thanks Junky,

It's really simple once the basic math is entered into a spreadsheet. After that it's just a simple matter of entering the counts and Excel does the rest.

I'm really surprised to have hit so close to the managers estimates considering how much better data they have to work with. I guess we all get lucky once in a while.

Here is a chart showing how the prediction changes day to day.



From: WDFW Anouncement...
"The fishery was announced Monday after state and tribal salmon co-managers reviewed updated weekend counts of sockeye from the Ballard Locks and agreed to update the strength of the sockeye run estimate to 385,000 fish. The spawning escapement goal for Lake Washington sockeye is 350,000 fish."