WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan has warned Americans that they face a grim future of perpetual deficits unless the U.S. Congress acts quickly to rein in hefty pension and medical benefits for retiring baby boomers.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman said yesterday that the problem of the current budget deficit -- forecast by the White House to hit a record $521-billion (U.S.) this year -- could pale next to the deficits looming just a few years ahead.
Mr. Greenspan called the longer-term budget quandary "daunting" and "sobering" -- his sternest warning yet about the country's deteriorating fiscal situation.
Testifying before a Congressional committee, Mr. Greenspan said the U.S. government has promised future generations more than it can afford in Medicare and Social Security benefits without undermining the economy.
"Our problem essentially is [that] we have been making commitments without focusing on our capability of meeting them," Mr. Greenspan said in response to questions from members of the House of Representatives' budget committee. "It is terribly important to make certain that we communicate to the people who are about to retire what it is they're going to have to live with . . . This is a much larger problem than we can basically handle."
Congress passed a costly health care bill last year that provides partial prescription drug coverage for seniors. As he has said in recent weeks, Mr. Greenspan urged Congress to fill the growing budget gap "primarily, if not wholly," by curbing spending, rather than raising taxes -- a position that puts him in synch with U.S. President George W. Bush.
He also floated the controversial idea of cutting benefits to retirees by raising the eligibility age for Social Security and adjusting the way benefits are indexed to inflation. Mr. Greenspan insisted, however, that benefits should not be cut for those "in or near retirement."
Indeed, Mr. Greenspan, who turns 77 next week, said Social Security and Medicare reform is so urgent because the front end of the baby boom generation is slated to begin receiving benefits in 2008. And, retirees should know well in advance what they can expect to get, he said.
That sentiment was immediately echoed by Mr. Bush. "Benefits should not be changed for people at or near retirement," Mr. Bush told reporters at the White House.
For the first time, Mr. Greenspan also acknowledged that higher taxes may be needed to keep the deficit in check. But he insisted that tax increases should be a last resort. Likewise, he said the United States can't grow its way out of the deficit hole.
"I am fully aware of the fact that it may not be possible to keep the tax rate down and still maintain some semblance of deficit control," he said. "But . . . I would strongly recommend that the priority of evaluation start with the expenditure side -- what can be constrained, what can be reduced. And only after you've run out of all of those options would I [revert] to the revenue side."
By stressing spending cuts over tax hikes, Mr. Greenspan has waded into an increasingly intense political debate about what to do as Mr. Bush's tax cuts begin to expire later this year.
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, a Massachusetts Senator, has suggested that tax breaks, at least for the wealthiest Americans, should be allowed to expire.
Mr. Bush has insisted, however, that all of the tax cuts should be made permanent.
When the most recent tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003, Congress opted to allow key provisions to expire as a way to keep the price tag down and limit sticker shock.
Mr. Greenspan gave Mr. Bush and tax cut supporters a crucial endorsement by suggesting in 2001 that letting the then budget surplus grow too large might be damaging to the economy. He acknowledged yesterday that the tax cuts have helped swell the deficit. But members of the committee failed to pick up on the apparent inconsistency, and none asked about his earlier enthusiasm for tax.
And in his prepared testimony, Mr. Greenspan spoke of the damaging effect of accumulating too much debt, which he warned would "drain away funds from private capital formation" and curb rising living standards.
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