Test-netting fizzles, will the run?

By Bill Monroe, Special to The Oregonian
March 15, 2010, 5:41PM

For the second week, there will be no gill-net season on the lower Columbia River on Tuesday.

Biologists said test-netting between Astoria and Longview on Sunday yielded poor catches of spring chinook and a repeat of last week's high number of steelhead in the river so the states of Oregon and Washington didn't even bother to meet Monday to determine Tuesday's preset gill-net fishing.

As last week, however, the Columbia will remain closed to angling Tuesday. It will reopen Wednesday below the Interstate 5 bridge and Thursday through Saturday between Interstates 5 and 205.

The Willamette River is clouded by runoff from last week's rainstorms in the Willamette Valley and few fish were caught today, mostly in the lower Multnomah Channel. The river in that area could be murky by tomorrow. The Willamette should begin dropping and clearing by Wednesday afternoon.

Biologists in both states are beginning to fret a little about their prediction for 470,000 upriver spring chinook to return into the Columbia, but say there is still time for it to materialize. That concern, however, will sharpen if test-netting remains poor this coming Sunday.

Back to the projection thing again doc, its the key and intill they get that dialed in..

Still having faith in those instincts?

I'd bet dollars to donuts in time you will see that these so called "jacks" they're estimating run sizes off of are nothing more than immature "runt" adults... I started noticing them 5-6 years ago...

Hopefully the run does materialize a bit more, I'm hungry for some springer........

Keith

I don't know whats causing all the jacks, pollution, hatchery feed, increased barging ,water flow. But caution is needed...Lower river runs seems to be fine.

Any guesses?

Keith

i heard its the new feed.

Reports from the Kalama area are extremely dismal from yesterday. Two different spots of 20-40 boats and 1 wild fish seen caught....

Hmm......

Keith

not looking good. what is concerning is the lack of up river columbia fish

I know the Holts got into the springers last weekend but it wasn't on the big c or the willy.

Here's another thought.........

The 470,000 springer forecast is based off of jack sizes that are 22" or less for kings. As I've mentioned before I believe that these so called "jacks" are mini "runt" adults...

What if they moved the slot limit for jacks down to 18" or less? To me that's an actual jack for a springer in the CR and tribs... What would the predictions be then? Would we still come up with 470,000 fish or less??

When you look at the fish viewing window, it has the lines set at 22" and 18", it wouldn't be hard to go back and recount the jacks other than a bit time consuming....

Keith

Just a quick flash back to 2001......................

Here's the fish counts over Bonneville for the 2001 return...

March 2001 Bonneville Counts

Keith

Keith,

based on the 2001 dam counts they had rather low #'s until the 19th after that they sky rocketed. I geuss I'll hold out hope until the 19th??

Well, time will tell. We could start seeing #'s a little later but the peaks are going to have to be massive to make 470K...

Keith

ain't that the truth!

Come on baby needs a new pair of shoes.......I'm patient I'll wait until the 20th and then I think I am going to reschedule my vacation, and sell the new boat! Or I'll try and make some lemonaide.....I have hopes but not so sure my hopes reach 470,000 makes me think of thegame show The Price is Right....I think I'll quess 1 fish Bob...look at that now I'm felling good about our return already crushed my prediction. At this point glass is still half full.

It should happen next week, I am optimistic. We have a big tide set starting this weekend I think that will push the run upriver. Look for those dam counts to skyrocket come mid to late next week.

c/22

There's 76 days LEFT until June 1st and they start counting them as Summer Kings...

Doing a little math backwards we'd have to have 6184 springers a day cross Bonneville between now and then...

Hmmm.....

Keith

Or one day at 470000....you guys catch many fish in the 18-24" range last year? During the peak Of the run can't we see numbers into the 10,000 fish a day? Not that I expect it to reach 470k. But still hoping it starts picking up.

Well quess I was a little off okay were screwed.....but still hoping it's open come April and my vacation. So makes me wonder who gains from blotted
and high predictions? It couldn't be politics could it? Hoping for 50% which would still be respectable return but still I hear it.....470k??? But I'm no expert!!