Is that a play on QE2, quantitative easing? Spanish for "what/question"?
Not really a fan on the $15 minimum wage. Anytime the government steps in with market mandates or price controls, it usually has a tendancy to really screw things up.
Considering that a very small percentage of the population here in Washington is paid the current minimum wage I think the overall effect will be minimal. How many here on PP make minimum wage? The last time I did I was waiting tables as I was transitioning out of restaurant management and into banking, working two jobs, in 1992.
Big winners will be very few. It may actually keep workers on the lower end of the job market down longer. Folks making above current minmum wage, but below $15/hour could be looked at as winners.
Where is the incentive to better yourself to make more money when the government gives you a $5.68/hr raise?
Prices will go up at businesses who depend upon minimum wage workers. This includes restaurants. 10 years in restaurants myself, and I can tell you the primary costs for restaurants were food, labor and bar costs. Increase one of those, and margins shrink. The way to maintain margins, increase prices. Don't increase prices means a pay cut for the top, or reduced profits. I don't think it will just be restaurants that are impacted. It will also likely include some small manufacturers that depend upon unskilled labor.
Places likely to be losers, businesses on the state lines, the cities that employ people there, and people who live in those cities. Vancouver, Walla Walla, Clarkston, Pullman, Spokane. I don't think they will be hit really hard, but some businesses may relocate or close if their model doesn't allow them to raise prices to cover increased labor costs when there is a replacement product across state lines for a cheaper price.
The biggest losers will be companies who produce a commodity in Washington that is sold either worldwide or across the nation, and they will feel the biggest impacts, in my opinion. Their competitors that operate in other states without these labor price controls will have a distinct advantage. Two companies with essentially the same raw materials costs, and fixed costs for light, heat, rent and electricity will have different net margins because of the change in labor costs. If they produce a commodity that is produced elsewhere, especially widely, they probably can't force a price increase in the market. They will either fold, or move.
This amounts to a 61% increase in labor cost for those employees making minimum wage. Less, but still an impact for employees making above minimum wage, say $12/hr, that is under the $15/hr being proposed by some people, which is a 25% increased labor cost for that person. No additional productivity is being gained.
That's just my first look on the subject. I hope that I am right on the impact on businesses, that the impact will be small. Businesses are just starting to dig out, and they need to rebuild capital, especially the ones who just barely survived. I would hate to see this take down any companies, but price controls do have an impact, and we do not operate in a vacuum.
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