On the Willapa it plays out somewhat differently. Chinook were Forks 6733 / Naselle 3266 / Nemah 3120 at the rack for a total of 13199. Forecasted was 19460 after harvest. Commercial harvest was predicted to be 5903 for Chinook and landings show 2922 which is not good. 6733 at Forks Cr is better but under forecast of 9227. Nemah was forecast at 2322 but got 3120. Naselle forecast 7900 and at the rack 3266. The projected harvest was 5903 and ended up at 2922 so it is not a leap to say the hatchery rack numbers were as high as they were due to the fact the Commercials catch was way down from prediction. By the time all the numbers are imputed I imagine the hatchery Chinook are going to be close to 60% of forecast. I think I am going to owe somebody lunch as I stuck with 50% of forecast.

Coho numbers do not appear to be all that hot either. Predicted NOR 34425 & HOR 46239. The rack reports have HOR at 3559 and that is a total failure on the hatchery side. The Commercials were supposed to catch around 20K of both H&W but got around 3391 which pretty much puts a fork in the question of how much short we are. Way short and frankly guys it is all about redd counts now as harvest and rack reports are only two legs of the four legged stool with redds being number three and two years out the fourth when the run reconstruction is done with all impacts and escapement.

Bottom line is this year seriously sucked for the fish and us.