WDFW and QIN gillnet landings for 2A/2D thru the end of October have been published. The EXPECTED combined net catches from both fleets was 9691 but ACTUAL catch fell considerably short (by about a quarter) at 7388 to date.

Assuming the fishery takes proportional bites out of the entire run during each stat week, and the return showed up with historic average run-timing, one can conclude that nearly a quarter of the coho run-size forecast is MIA.

If you scroll back to page 71 of this thread (yeah, it's that FRIGGIN' long!) some of you might recall the giant chasm between the QIN wild coho forecast (29K) and the WDFW wild coho forecast (109K). They settled the cavernous gap at a "technically agreed to" run-size of 41K wild coho.

If you remove the quarter of the PSF that failed to show up, the in-season run-size projection is much closer to 30K at this point in time.

In hindsight, it turns out the tribe coho forecast was just about SPOT ON. The state forecast not so much.