Some of us looking forward are always looking at the weather forecast and flows . So right now the Chehalis is above average flows which is a good place to be right now. Always a believer in the fact that on the coast weather forecast especially long range can be somewhat a pie in the sky it is interesting this year. August is forecast to be a few degrees above normal and very little measurable rain just a couple of shower days. September the first 3 weeks continue the above average temperatures but the last week or so drops well below the 72 degrees average. Rain during September is a few showery days but nothing serious .

Now October is where things really go for a change for about everything. Except for a few days scattered through the October is forecasted to be 4 to 6 degrees below the average of graph line average which means it will be cooler than normal, much cooler. It is the rain that really stands out in the forecast. 16 days of rain going from single day showers to several events that are 4 to 5 days in duration with substantial precipitation in the range of over half an inch daily.

Rain is everything to the Chehalis salmon runs. It determines when and how the fish move. The early rain ( Sept ) like the last few years is great inland messes up bay and tidal fishing. So one could draw the conclusion that unlike the last few years the fish will not blow past the openings where we fish in September but normal slow steady movement with the tides until wherever they stop and stage. That much rain in October is going make things strange. You have both tribal and NT commercial fisheries, it is likely the rivers will do the brown outs early, and the fish will move rather quickly inland some distance. Coho do not move high upstream until the spawning areas water up but stop and stage waiting for more water.

Broodstocking one learns this lesson rather quickly but there is a way to see the signs. When we get enough rain the small streams and beaver ponds fill and dump this brackish black water. It is especially visible on the swamp fed East Fork Satsop and Coho will kinda pause letting this water go by then it is after burners on.

So the crystal ball says nice August & September with normal fish movement and with this years forecast it should rather nice fishing. Now October is likely be downright different as we have not had this weather pattern for some years. One thing for sure if this forecast holds it going to a very interesting late summer early fall salmon fishery. Should be a lot of fun!