The information below in a e mail thread was looking to this question. "Did the Quinault Nation Bio's have good enough look at the 2014 harvest to know that they were going to blow escapement on Chinook?" The answer is very doubtful. This is a prime example of just why in the heck harvest management is a bitch. That the QIN were ah not very nice by going through their numbers and into the NT share is a given. That said look to what John says as to Chinook.

Simple fact is Chinook were early and smaller runsize, Coho late, & Chum a no show with 45% or so off preseason estimate. This resulted in a perfect storm that nailed the fish that was nearly undetectable, Chum maybe.

Now just imagine what would have happened if we did not have 4/3 (three net free days a week) and the state put the NT Nets in the three open days a week. From my perspective the objectives that the Commission put into the Grays Harbor Management Plan work.

----- Original Message -----
From: hamilton.dave@comcast.net
To: XXXXX
Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2015 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: Grays Harbor 2014 run size estimate?




Hey John with the harvest numbers on WDFW's website is it possible to check the math week by week to see if the QIN had a idea they were blowing past escapement?


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From: XXXXX
To: "hamilton dave" <hamilton.dave@comcast.net>
Sent: Friday, February 27, 2015 9:25:53 PM
Subject: Re: Grays Harbor 2014 run size estimate?




Dave,

To try to answer your question I assume you mean for Chinook. I looked at the total harvest compared to the plan total which is mostly natural origin.

The actual run was smaller than the plan but it looks like it came in faster in the early weeks. Harvest was about on plan for the first two weeks, (weeks 39 and 40). Even week 41 was 72% of plan. After that it declined rapidly.

I do not think I could predict a short run until at least week 42 and by then all but the last 150 fish had been harvested. In my view I could not have said the run was small and the normal looking harvest was really going to go into escapement.

John